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LastOnePicked

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Everything posted by LastOnePicked

  1. LastOnePicked
    Would love to see Martin get back on track and shoot back up the organization's prospect list. I really like the speed and the ability to get on base. Hope 2023 is the year of his ascent.
  2. LastOnePicked
    Will the new logo be holographic? I was promised by virtually every movie as a child that the 2000s would features holograms everywhere. Holograms on the uniforms. Make it happen.
  3. LastOnePicked
    "Yet emotions aside, there's an obligation to look at the reality." - And then the article goes on to cherry pick five aspects of the season that were either good (I agree) or overblown. That's not reality - that's blind optimism. 1) Jose Miranda had a solid rookie campaign ... at the plate. However, he's grounded into more double-plays than almost any hitter in baseball and in the field he's not yet what you could call an asset. Did we get a glimpse a fairly promising career? Absolutely. Is he a ROY candidate? Nope. 2) Gray is a solid starter, and I'm glad he's here. But he's a #3 starter on a good team, and that's when he's available. We'll have to see what Petty becomes before we call this trade a win. 3) Gordon is another great story and he's probably my favorite current Twin. But you need your #5 draft picks to produce, and Gordon seems more like a great utility player than a star in the making. 4) Ryan is maybe the most currently overhyped Twin. He's great against weak opponents, yes. He's also HR-prone, exactly like the scouting reports said. He, too, could be a huge asset to this team as a #4-#5 starter. Sadly, he's being asked to take the #2 slot here. 5) Everything you're saying here has been said about Miguel Sano and Brent Rooker. This team has put a lot of emphasis on slow-speed, two-outcome sluggers. I love that Wallner's getting a chance to play ball at this level, but this team also needs players with speed and defensive chops who can cover OF territory. But, I will never knock Caleb Thielbar. May he pitch like this until he's 60. Bless him. Sorry for the cold water on the rest, but as you so elegantly stated, there's an obligation to look at the reality, too. We'll have to see what next year brings to these potentially promising developments.
  4. LastOnePicked
    BOSS: We put a plan in place, we had strong sales, our profits were surging and then all of a sudden we tanked. We dropped to like third in the region. What happened? EMPLOYEE: I don't know. I think people were injured all over the place or something. BOSS: Injured? Why? Our factory isn't any more risky than any other. And the replacements we hired look sluggish. What's going on? EMPLOYEE: C'mon, we lost. The fiscal year is over. Let's just move on. BOSS: WHAT?! EMPLOYEE: Maybe your expectations for the company were just too high. Ever think of that? You all get what I'm saying here? The fanbase's constant push to put on a happy face and sweep failure under the rug just kinda astounds me. Of course, feel however you like about this season, but I don't think we're capable of sending a clear message to ownership about what's acceptable and what's not anymore. Perhaps ticket sales and broadcast ratings will have to do that work for those of us whose expectations for one playoff victory or one title push in 30+ years are "too high."
  5. LastOnePicked
    Counterpoint: Accountability matters. If the "stuff that happens" is somehow only ever keeping your organization from success, the fault is probably less in the stars and more in the decisions being made by those at the top. I value grace and forgiveness. I don't hate anybody involved with this team. But I hate weak excuses, and I hate a culture of losing.
  6. LastOnePicked
    It's all on the FO. After Falvey's statement about Baldelli's job being safe and that he and the FO are "partners," it's clear that even the managing philosophy or decisions I may disagree with are dictated by the FO. So, foolishly keeping Pagan in high-leverage situations?: the FO. Playing Lewis in CF, despite his unfamiliarity with Target Field and the risk to his ACL?: the FO. Signing ineffective veteran pitchers?: the FO. Trading for injury-prone arms?: the FO. Hiring this current training and medical staff?: the FO. Not even being remotely aware that your pitching coach was interested in a career change?: the FO. Despite the undercurrent of anger in a lot of my posts, I don't hate Falvey and/or Levine. I love that they signed Buxton and Correa. I appreciate that they stretch payroll. I value that they were about as aggressive as they could be at this year's trade deadline. I do, however, think that they still believe they are the smartest guys in the room. The people I've known in life who see themselves this way a) typically are not the smartest people in any room and b) likely to make a mess of things due to blind spots, hubris or both. I've accepted the fact that they are here to stay for 2023 and possibly beyond. But if I were Jim Pohlad, I'd demand a full accounting for this year's failures + a detailed plan to win the AL title in 2023. I'd also clarify that if either the accounting or the plan don't look absolutely promising, it's time for them both to clear their offices and polish their resumes. They've had more than enough time to right the ship, and it's leaking worse than when they started.
  7. LastOnePicked
    Sure, but at the REALLY good restaurants, they serve World Series appearances. Sometimes even fresh MLB titles. You really gotta try it someday, my friend. ?
  8. LastOnePicked
    I'll make this last point, and then I'm going to quit while I'm either ahead or behind. Plus, my real-life to-do list is stacking up while I'm talking Twins. But ... imagine you've been stuck eating regularly at a bad restaurant. Like really bad. Stale food. Weak menu. Just awful to be stuck in. But then you get out of that restaurant and start making another place your regular spot. This place is a bit better, sure, but to you it seems great because of what you've been stuck in for years. That's why it's good to have friends join you, because they might have to tell you that, sad to say, this new favorite restaurant of yours really isn't even that good by comparison to what else is out there. National baseball writers have been trying to tell us the truth - this FO is nothing special when it comes to drafting and developing pitchers. "Better than what came before" matters a lot less than "Good enough to get us to the top." It's been over six years, and every team has had to deal with the same pandemic. This is still not a great place to eat. Sorry.
  9. LastOnePicked
    Solid response, Mike. But what indications do you have that this was a fluke? Entirely possible that the same thing happens again in 2023. Kirilloff has a very uphill battle to return to MLB. Larnach has been totally sidelined by injuries for two seasons in a row. Buxton will, as always, spend significant time on the IL. If your healthy "newly graduated" core consists of Miranda, Jax, Gordon, Ryan and Duran, you're probably not going to go toe-to-toe with the likes of the Astros or Yankees. With the exception of Duran, none of the players you list are close to elite. Even the older core players with one or more nearly-elite skills like Arraez - and I love Arraez - are fading away at the end here. So you kind of reinforced my point - you're relying on a LOT of question marks and unproven commodities. My last point: time doesn't make this happen. If it did, the Twins would have already won an AL title in the last 30 years. Winning is not an accident - it's an iron will, bolstered by good decisions, married to a good plan and peppered with just a pinch of luck.
  10. LastOnePicked
    I think you misunderstood my point, or I didn't make it well. A team like the Twins absolutely has to build and succeed through drafting and building a core. The issue is that this core - the players who are currently in this organization - are either a) not likely to be reliable due to injury concerns or b) not anywhere close to elite. Where is this farm system ranked at this point? 20th? 25th? Which pitchers project to be top-of-the-rotation starters? Which internally-ranked arms project to throw 150-200 quality innings per year? How about position players? Who projects to be a 30-40 HR hitter? Who can seriously contend for a batting title? Who looks like they've got Gold Glove range? Who can steal 25-30 bases in a season? The answer to all of these questions is this: no one. While there have been some promising seasons and some compelling minor league storylines, this team can't hold a candle to the talent that is acquired and developed by the big boys of baseball. And not even to the dregs who have used the last few years to rebuild. So what are we even doing here? Why are we even asking this FO to stay? They've been touted as a supremely intelligent group with the ability to build a sustainable pitching pipeline PLUS augment that staff with veteran reclamation projects that can rebound and anchor the rotation and pen. None of this has happened, and there are no signs to indicate that it ever will. It's sad and it's frustrating, but this team is going to have to take a few steps back into the cellar before it can take confident steps towards a title. And it's going to have to involve a new FO and new voices in the dugout. And the longer we wait, the harder its going to get to keep fans on board. In fact, that may already be too late.
  11. LastOnePicked
    I don't hate to say it at all. I want this team to win a World Series. There is no path forward to that goal with this core, this coaching staff and/or this FO. If anything, last year was the time to begin a rebuild and we're already a year off schedule. I'm drafting a blog post on this exact issue.
  12. LastOnePicked
    First of all, the Twins didn't do nearly enough to bolster the rotation. Gray worked out reasonably well, yes. Relying on the likes of Bundy and Archer was ridiculous, and ignoring the bullpen was a serious, and costly, mistake. It seems like the FO just assumed that the pitching pipeline was ready to fill in all of the gaps. That was maybe the biggest problem for this team, and it ultimately wasted a good year from Correa. But you also raise good points about the core position players, They were counted on, and they couldn't get it done. But should they have been counted on? Kepler has been a hot mess for three years. Sano hasn't shown an ability to adapt or stay fit. Arraez and Polanco have consistent nagging injuries. We don't even need to say anything about Byron Buxton and his tragic injury history. Yes, the FO saw the instability offered by Donaldson and Garver and made adjustments, but relying on the core that they kept to produce another division title was a questionable call at best. That's really my biggest concern going forward: the Twins are just putting too much weight on injury-prone players. The established core mentioned above are going to be another year older and even more prone to injury. The "new" core of Lewis, Kirilloff, Jeffers and Larnach are just starting their careers with exactly the same concerns, if not much worse. You probably don't get an all-star shortstop out of a player with repeatedly torn ACLs, or an all-star slugging LF with a history of chronic wrist pain. And the Twins need all-stars - they need an elite player somewhere on the field. Once Correa leaves, the only position on this team featuring an elite-caliber player will be the platoon/bench CF. Oof. At some point, this team is going to have to admit that it can't get to a title with this core. Yes, it's sad and maybe even represents some bad luck, but this team is so much closer to being the Tigers than the Yankees. If that doesn't suggest it's time for a total coaching and roster rebuild, I don't know what does.
  13. LastOnePicked
    "the Twins would be silly not to make Lewis a central part of their plan. With a central locker location in the clubhouse." I get exactly what you're saying here, but there is a danger in building a clubhouse around a player with serious injury concerns. I think we've seen this play out already with Buxton and how much his repeated injuries deflate the team's morale. And, according to an article one of the TD folks shared at the time of his OF incident, the rates of ACL re-tears after two tears already is ... not encouraging. I love Royce Lewis. I feel sick inside about what's happened in his career. He deserves better. Long-suffering Twins fans deserve better. I hate even acknowledging this, but there is actually a chance he won't ever play baseball at this level again, and if he does he likely won't be at full speed, The Twins really need to start building around a more reliable, durable core. Here's hoping he bucks the odds, and that Twins fans finally get their next generation all-star.
  14. LastOnePicked
    I'm sorry, but you're saying there are credible studies that validate the concept of "luck"? You're pulling my leg, right? Let's not get carried away with the idea that the 2022 Twins are a huge improvement of the 2021 Twins. They may end only one game better, record-wise, and at least the 2021 Twins could beat a team like the Astros. I try to think about baseball the way I want to see Twins leadership think. And from that perspective, I would NEVER, EVER hand over my team's fate to the concept of "luck." You have to fight with whatever tools/skills you have to make your own luck.
  15. LastOnePicked
    I appreciate the thoughtful response, but I couldn't possibly disagree more vehemently with this statement. A winning mentality makes its own luck, or it makes change when it falls short. I mean, isn't it funny how only the "lucky" teams seem to prioritize their depth, build a strong bullpen, can hit with RISP, and don't stick with a failing closer? I think luck has stunningly little to do with where the Twins now find themselves.
  16. LastOnePicked
    I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility. If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning.
  17. LastOnePicked
    First, Cleveland continues to churn out reliable starters, despite the fact that they've been a winning organization for a while now. So yes, the Twins continue to fall far short of their example. Second, it's not so much the run differential, it's also the durability. Cleveland's young staff has remained largely healthy. Ours has not. That's what I think people are referring to when they say the pipeline is busted. You don't praise a pitching staff for promise, and there's not much to be excited about when an Ober or a Winder arrive and can only make 10-12 starts a year.
  18. LastOnePicked
    I've really been trying to pin down what's wrong with this club in terms of culture, and your reply helped trigger some additional thoughts, so thank you. I'll have to find the citation, but basically there was a research project a few years back that tried to explore the relationship between mentoring messages and student success on math tests. If I remember correctly, the project drew from a pool of students who had approximately the same strong math aptitude scores. They divided the pool into two groups and separated them: Group A were essentially told that they were average students, and if they worked harder than anyone, they could improve and actually become great at math. Group B were told that they were already high achievers at math, and that all they had to do was simply maintain their excellence. When tested at the end of the year, Group A outscored Group B by a large margin. That's not surprising. What is surprising is that when it came time to take optional tests - to test their learning along the way - almost every student in Group A took optional tests. Almost no students in Group B did. Rocco is very good at supportive messages. He's kind, and he sees the best in his players. Sadly, I think that's maybe part of the problem. I don't think he understands how to instill a sense of urgency and hunger in his players. He's stuck in 2019 thinking - that this is still a 100-win team. What he doesn't understand is that the 2019 team really wasn't all that good, and the playoffs proved it.
  19. LastOnePicked
    Except usually in a rebuild you gain top prospects, not lose them. If only the rebuild had started already.
  20. LastOnePicked
    Fair. But I'm sure people thought this about Jayce Tingler in San Diego, too. Epic collapses usually require a shake-up. And it seems to be paying off for the Padres.
  21. LastOnePicked
    Even if they had originally planned to do so, I don't believe the FO can possibly bring back Baldelli after this complete faceplant finish. I know a lot of folks here on TD think his job is safe, but I don't think you can watch the way this team has carried itself and keep him on. I'm not even sure he wants the job anymore at this point. Time for a change in the dugout. All new coaching staff in 2023.
  22. LastOnePicked
    Lewis absolutely cannot be counted on if and when he returns. Two ACL tears can't help but have a major impact on his career as an infielder. If he can provide anything, that's wonderful, but no one should count on him as a regular SS going forward. Lee and Miller likely won't be ready in 2023 either. This club will be just so much farther from contention without Correa, and they were clearly far away even with him. 2023 has to be the start of a true rebuild, so take your lumps with Palacios, let Lewis recover, let Lee develop and see if there's a low-cost SS to be found, either in free agency or through a waiver claim.
  23. LastOnePicked
    I sometimes get the feeling that Twins fans do more work to bolster this team than the FO. It's an interesting thought experiment, though. Trades for Lopez, Mahle, etc. wouldn't have happened, but perhaps Gray, Correa, Kepler, Polanco and/or Arraez would have been dealt for good prospects. Doubtful that the team would have rallied in August/September the way they did in April/May, but the vibe of a second straight losing year would have been buffered by the strengthened farm system and the sense that a rebuild was well underway. Come to think of it, I prefer your alternate reality scenario. The vibe would have been different, yes.
  24. LastOnePicked
    Correct. He's a competitor, and there are no other fighters here. The Twins need to develop top talent and a culture of winning. Put the money from Correa's contract into an organization-wide rebuild. Don't just sign Astros' former stars - become the next Astros.
  25. LastOnePicked
    Out of all of the terrible things that have happened this season, this sentence stands out as the worst. And it's not that you're wrong, either. Ugh, what a sign of a dismal franchise, when Jake Cave seems worth keeping.
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