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stringer bell

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  1. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from jorgenswest for a blog entry, Survivors   
    A while ago, one of the last of the original Minnesota Twins passed away. His name was José Valdivielso, who had an unremarkable major league career mostly with the original Senators. While noting his passing, I checked on how many of the Opening Day Minnesota Twins were still living. That total is five, or seven if you count players who played for the team sometime during their inaugural season. The next step down the rabbit hole for me was to see how many Griffith family Senators (the Twins predecessor) have survived and that answer was seven including four 1961 Twins--Jim Kaat, Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos and Don Lee. Those four guys threw a majority of innings for the '61 Twins--Pascual was an All-Star, Ramos a solid starter as was Kaat in the beginning of a Hall of Fame career. Lee was a swing man in the era of four-man rotations.
    So naturally, I thought about other "dead" franchises. How many Brooklyn Dodgers are still drawing breath? How about the New York Giants? St. Louis Browns? Boston Braves? Philadelphia Athletics? For these franchises, I was aware of a couple of players, but a check at Baseball Reference revealed more information. First of all, the Boston Braves have no surviving players. Del Crandall started his career with Boston and passed away in 2021, marking the end of living Braves from their original home. All of the other franchises that moved in the '50s have survivors. The Giants and Dodgers both moved late in that decade and still have a few players living. Notable among the Giants is ex-Twin Al Worthington, the oldest survivor who played for the Giants and for the Dodgers Sandy Koufax, "the Left Arm of God", who retired early and has been in the Hall of Fame since 1972, that's eleven years longer than the youngest HOFer (Joe Mauer) has been alive.
    The St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore in 1954, so over 70 years ago, and two players are still with us. The more notable is Billy Hunter, who went on to a six-year major league career and later managed the Orioles. The Philadelphia Athletics moved to Kansas City in 1955 and one Athletic remains. His name is Bobby Shantz, who will be 100 years old this year. Bobby Shantz was the AL MVP in 1952, before there was a Cy Young award and won eight Gold Gloves as a pitcher. He is the last living player to have played for Connie Mack.
    Here is a complete list of survivors of defunct teams that moved in the '50's and early '60's. Washington Senators (1901-1960)--Ken Aspromonte, Jim Kaat, Don Lee, Bob Oldis, Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos, Bob Ross. New York Giants (1883-1957)--Joey Amalfitano, Jackie Brandt, Ray Crone, Joe Margoneri, Bill White and Al Worthington. Brooklyn Dodgers (1884-1957)--Bob Aspromonte, Jim Gentile, Fred Kipp and Sandy Koufax. St. Louis Browns (1902-1953)--Ed Mickelson, Billy Hunter, Philadelphia Athletics (1901-1954)--Bobby Shantz.
    Photo of Shantz in a Philadelphia A's uniform in 1953.
     

  2. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Parfigliano for a blog entry, Survivors   
    A while ago, one of the last of the original Minnesota Twins passed away. His name was José Valdivielso, who had an unremarkable major league career mostly with the original Senators. While noting his passing, I checked on how many of the Opening Day Minnesota Twins were still living. That total is five, or seven if you count players who played for the team sometime during their inaugural season. The next step down the rabbit hole for me was to see how many Griffith family Senators (the Twins predecessor) have survived and that answer was seven including four 1961 Twins--Jim Kaat, Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos and Don Lee. Those four guys threw a majority of innings for the '61 Twins--Pascual was an All-Star, Ramos a solid starter as was Kaat in the beginning of a Hall of Fame career. Lee was a swing man in the era of four-man rotations.
    So naturally, I thought about other "dead" franchises. How many Brooklyn Dodgers are still drawing breath? How about the New York Giants? St. Louis Browns? Boston Braves? Philadelphia Athletics? For these franchises, I was aware of a couple of players, but a check at Baseball Reference revealed more information. First of all, the Boston Braves have no surviving players. Del Crandall started his career with Boston and passed away in 2021, marking the end of living Braves from their original home. All of the other franchises that moved in the '50s have survivors. The Giants and Dodgers both moved late in that decade and still have a few players living. Notable among the Giants is ex-Twin Al Worthington, the oldest survivor who played for the Giants and for the Dodgers Sandy Koufax, "the Left Arm of God", who retired early and has been in the Hall of Fame since 1972, that's eleven years longer than the youngest HOFer (Joe Mauer) has been alive.
    The St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore in 1954, so over 70 years ago, and two players are still with us. The more notable is Billy Hunter, who went on to a six-year major league career and later managed the Orioles. The Philadelphia Athletics moved to Kansas City in 1955 and one Athletic remains. His name is Bobby Shantz, who will be 100 years old this year. Bobby Shantz was the AL MVP in 1952, before there was a Cy Young award and won eight Gold Gloves as a pitcher. He is the last living player to have played for Connie Mack.
    Here is a complete list of survivors of defunct teams that moved in the '50's and early '60's. Washington Senators (1901-1960)--Ken Aspromonte, Jim Kaat, Don Lee, Bob Oldis, Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos, Bob Ross. New York Giants (1883-1957)--Joey Amalfitano, Jackie Brandt, Ray Crone, Joe Margoneri, Bill White and Al Worthington. Brooklyn Dodgers (1884-1957)--Bob Aspromonte, Jim Gentile, Fred Kipp and Sandy Koufax. St. Louis Browns (1902-1953)--Ed Mickelson, Billy Hunter, Philadelphia Athletics (1901-1954)--Bobby Shantz.
    Photo of Shantz in a Philadelphia A's uniform in 1953.
     

  3. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from DocBauer for a blog entry, More Thoughts--Super Bowl Edition   
    TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
    Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
    Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
    Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
     
  4. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Paul D for a blog entry, More Thoughts--Super Bowl Edition   
    TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
    Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
    Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
    Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
     
  5. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Karbo for a blog entry, More Thoughts--Super Bowl Edition   
    TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
    Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
    Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
    Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
     
  6. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Fatbat for a blog entry, More Thoughts--Super Bowl Edition   
    TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
    Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
    Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
    Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
     
  7. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Fatbat for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  8. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  9. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Paul D for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  10. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  11. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from jorgenswest for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  12. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from nclahammer for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  13. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from NoCryingInBaseball for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  14. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Karbo for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  15. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from nclahammer for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  16. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from IndyTwinsFan for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  17. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from LewFordLives for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  18. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from GKuehl for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  19. Love
    stringer bell got a reaction from Bob Twins Fan Since 61 for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  20. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from wabene for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  21. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from DocBauer for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  22. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from arby58 for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  23. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from TopGunn#22 for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  24. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from miracleb for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  25. Like
    stringer bell got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, Finding a Jewel in the Ruins   
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
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