Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training
Twins Video
Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities). Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer.
Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners.
Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
- Karbo, jorgenswest, Oldgoat_MN and 5 others
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