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nova_twins

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Everything posted by nova_twins

  1. nova_twins
    Holy moly the bad takes. If Kepler keeps hitting, he gets the QO and declines it, no question. He would be such a bargain that even if he took the QO, he'd be easy to trade. Can't lose situation for the twins. If he keeps hitting.
  2. nova_twins
    Matthews has a lot of prospect helium right now. Age isn't an issue if you're already good. Being younger is important so there's time to improve. When you're up to 97 with plus command and solid secondaries, it's just a matter of proving it on the field.
  3. nova_twins
    I'm kinda worried. Either he's still not healthy or he's struggling badly despite being healthy, neither of which are good. He doesn't add any value defensively so he can't just be a decent hitter, he really needs to rake. Kirilloff still has an option year so he might not be far off from demotion conversations, depending on the position player health situation.
  4. nova_twins
    Pitching has to be assembled multiple ways. Acquiring young pitchers and completing their development (inc. at the MLB level) is obviously part of any pitching 'pipeline'. Looking only at the draft is a more limited exercise and often requires a long wait to properly assess. Another way to look at it - if this doesn't count as a "pipeline," then why should anyone care about that idea anymore? The goal is to win baseball games not have the most prospects listed on the rankings.
  5. nova_twins
    On a bell curve, #8/30 is above average, not elite. Maybe top 3-4 would be elite. Above average FO, below average ownership, arguably below average luck, the results have been pretty much what should be expected. Another ignored element of this is that Falvine agreed not to clean house when they arrived. That added significant extra challenges, but as part of a longer term philosophy that predated them.
  6. nova_twins
    Most fans don't have the knowledge or intellectual capability to evaluate MLB front offices. Not to mention the decisions themselves - front offices have access to vastly greater amounts of information than fans do. Given those underlying realities, the survey results seem valid to me - baseball execs are a small group that know each other fairly well.
  7. nova_twins
    lol Castro is one of the best players on the team since he joined and ZiPS currently projects him as a starting caliber player at multiple positions. He's much more likely to be extended than let go. Only Margot is currently a realistic possibility to move on from over the next several months.
  8. nova_twins
    My concern with Emma is that only big league pitchers can really challenge him, so it will require significant adjustments . . . But on the flip side, he might already be better than Austin Martin (as an OF) and Margot for that matter. OF defense is extra important with a flyball staff.
  9. nova_twins
    He's fine. His command gets a little spotty at times, happened last year to varying degrees.
  10. nova_twins
    I wonder about Martin's long term fit despite widespread positivity. He's probably not good enough in CF to justify being the main alternative to Buxton. He doesn't really hit enough for the corners, so he doesn't help much post (?) Kepler. He's a weaker infield backup than Castro or Brooks Lee (once healthy). Not to mention there are other guys coming up a little behind but with a lot more potential, like Emma and Keaschall. I do think there are teams he can help in his prime, but the Twins roster may not turn out to be the best spot.
  11. nova_twins
    He moved to the bullpen because the Twins knew his arm/shoulder wouldn't make it as a starter. Zero chance the Twins consider this in any way, ever.
  12. nova_twins
    What's up with CJ Culpepper? Interesting he hasn't pitched yet.
  13. nova_twins
    The Blue Jays now are a closer comparison to the late 2010s Twins when their highly touted young position players couldn't quite translate into the desired level of success, for various reasons. The Twins subsequently fell off but bounced back with a combination of trade pick ups and additional young players arriving. And by playing in the AL central as others have noted. The Twins competitive window now is dependent largely on the health of their core players.
  14. nova_twins
    What percentage of PAs and innings have even be played by Major Leaguers? Team ST record is irrelevant. Individual performance is mostly irrelevant. Spring stats have been looked at extensively and their predictive value is very limited. There's also the fact that some players are doing very well. Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Buxton to name a few. Correa looking better. Brooks Lee for depth. Zero reason for panic. If someone wants to worry a little about Wallner, well, ok, he was already projected to be one of their weakest starters by WAR. Looking forward to games that actually count.
  15. nova_twins
    Everyone knows the risk is sky high with flame-throwing 18 year olds. Soto reminds me of Duran - big, somewhat stiff, very hard sinker, good secondary pitches. Soto is an exciting prospect despite the odds, because it's hard to find impact pitching.
  16. nova_twins
    The Twins obviously won the deal, it's not even close.
  17. nova_twins
    He struck out multiple Tigers with some kind of cutter at 88-89. Nasty looking.
  18. nova_twins
    My impression is that even among third party analysts, lots of people are expecting massive regression from Wallner. But he's got points in his favor - - his Statcast data is excellent. He got a little lucky perhaps on batting average but unlucky on slugging, overall his expected results near exactly matched the actuals - along the same lines, this guy is a serious athlete. 100th percentile arm, 67th % speed, and plus plus power - he wasn't particularly vulnerable to off speed or breaking pitches - his weakness against LHP is probably overstated. In his breakout 2022 milb season, he crushed lefties, and his zone data doesn't look bad for countering them. He's of course much weaker than against RHP, like all left handed hitters
  19. nova_twins
    The Twins haven't drafted many high school pitchers, so I'm not sure it's accurate to say they have a problem developing them.
  20. nova_twins
    Miller is very good at SS but the twins have extremely detailed knowledge of him and clearly don't believe he'll ever hit. ZiPS projects his 2026 OPS to be .609. Keep in mind they didn't even have to include miller, the incoming prospect is more highly-rated if anything, and the twins/dodgers could have just changed the salary offset.
  21. nova_twins
    This is pretty straightforward, the twins can't generate enough surplus value by extending Ober because he's an injury risk already under team control. The numbers just don't work.
  22. nova_twins
    The luxury tax is an important factor. The Giants and Mets offered a large number of years to mitigate the AAV impact of the deal; once the long-term health issue became apparent, it blew up the financial basis of the deals from the club side. The Twins were able to go higher on AAV due to their low payroll, which in turn also made them much more flexible in structuring a deal. To put it another way, the Giants and Mets were only ever interested in "Low AAV Correa." That's *before* any physicals took place. The Twins never had that limitation. The same issue is also probably why other teams didn't jump in - clubs across MLB recognize Correa's value profile, and Minnesota was the best fit.
  23. nova_twins
    *exorcised
  24. nova_twins
    Lewis' debut was absolutely a huge deal, especially in combination with how he's played in AAA. You can dig into the metrics or you can just stick with the basics, it doesn't really matter - he's showing elite offensive upside along with the potential to play shortstop, which is incredibly rare. If anything, Lewis' development has been underhyped, because his 1st overall pick pedigree gets more attention than the fact his last minor league success had been 2018 in A-ball. In terms of expected future value, Lewis' rise this year has to be at or near the top across all MLB orgs.
  25. nova_twins
    The Twins are 7th in wRC+ and 16th in xFIP-. Raw numbers are almost difficult to look at because of the run-scoring environment. Pitching is still a significant concern for this team.
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