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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    That's more or less a restatement of what I thought I was trying to say. I don't know what his third-time-through numbers "really" are, but I'm feeling that OPS=.813 isn't it. I do think that third-time-through is a concept best left to more capable statisticians than myself, because it involves conditional probability that is tough to sift through - there is a built-in bias to the numbers collected, for one thing that (usually) you only get to face a batter for a third time if you're having a pretty good game, but if you're having a REALLY good game, maybe the effect isn't as big. Across the majors, 1st/2nd/3rd time is a measurable difference but not as dramatic as people sometimes think - but again there is that bias to remember. Let me throw in an additional thought. The Twins beat Cleveland 4-1 on September 17, the one win we had in that important series. Zebby was the starting pitcher in that one too, but he didn't get the win because he got taken out with 2 gone in the 5th inning, after giving up a base runner. Sound familiar? A lefty, Gimenez, was coming to the plate. Sound really familiar? Which reliever came in? Irvin. Woah, deja vu all over again. What was the result? A groundout. Cole Sands entered the game to begin the next inning, and did well. History doesn't always repeat itself, but sometimes it tries and fails. Big difference being that Duran's having a lot better season at the plate than Gimenez.
  2. ashbury
    The third-time-through logic has this one missing piece: Zebby's OPS-against is even worse the first time through (.862) and second time (.904) than the third (.813). If you were not going to let him continue a third time through, due to the numbers, then those numbers say you shouldn't have started him in the first place. Given this paradox, I'd be inclined to give less credence to the small sample of data to work with. Here's the other way I look at it. If you leave Zebby in and he fails to get Duran, you can take him out and put in a righty to replace him that you trust more. If you put in either lefty and he fails to get Duran, you are stuck with no new option for two more batters. Ultimately, though, if Sands would have been the man (to clean up immediately after Zebby vs Duran), the outcome when he actually did come in a few batters later doesn't suggest anything better. A lose-lose proposition. We do not have a shut-down bullpen. I leave Zebby in, last batter regardless of the outcome, feeling that all the options are low probability for success. Maybe a success against a tough batter gives the youngster an extra shot of confidence going forward., plus it puts him in line for the W since it'll be 5 complete innings. If he fails, worst case it's 2-2. We saw the worst case with the lefty he brought in: 3-2 (okay okay, I guess 4-2 was a possibility too).
  3. ashbury
    "When healthy," Buxton's bat plays, even in a corner OF role. The people last year who were saying that his numbers indicated who he really was as a hitter, and that his bat had always been overrated and the injuries were a bogus excuse, are mysteriously silent about it this year. But the health issue is part of the full package of the player. And at least to me, the eye-test lines up with the defensive stats, that he's now an average center fielder. I thought his range was still good, and it was mainly his unwillingness to try risky plays that are costing him defensive value, in the name of keeping him on the field at all. But maybe he's lost a step too. He still has a remarkable ability to track fly balls and go get them on a straight line, and most importantly to "close the deal" when the ball is at the limit of what he can reach at the wall. A bat that is good enough to let him play RF is more than enough to be an asset for an "average" defensive CFer, if that's what he is now. I would be in no hurry to move him from the position. He's Michael A. Taylor with a better bat. If the day ever comes that the three outfielders you want to start a given game because of their bats includes someone who can push Byron to a corner, that's for sure the time to move him, but until that day comes, he stays put if I'm in charge. Even a diminished Buxton is better in CF than anyone else MLB-ready in the organization, including Keirsey for now (basing that on my small-sample eye-test of the latter trying to "close the deal" on a tough flyball at the wall).
  4. ashbury
    nm, i got ninja'd.
  5. ashbury
    Hard to believe a waiver-wire pickup like Cole Irvin didn't prove to be a lights-out member of the bullpen.
  6. ashbury
    Correa looks like his usual self at shortstop, which is to say state-of-the-art-reliable. But Buxton is only a fraction of himself defensively, unable and unwilling to lay out for difficult chances lest he tweak the hip (or whatever the risk is). He goes back to the wall just fine, but since his return I recall at least two dying-quail liners that he's allowed to drop in front of him when I felt confident that the Buxton of years past would have grabbed them. So even having our guys back doesn't mean it's all the same. We've all said that Byron needed to learn to protect his body, but this is the cost; he's just another center fielder at the moment.
  7. ashbury
    See this a lot. What's the source of this recurring opinion about what's inside someone else's noggin? Just an echo chamber here, after someone once said it must be so? Meanwhile we have thread after thread full of people who are certain they are smarter, and tell us so, repeatedly. So who actually deserves to be labeled this way? Some folks might ask themselves, Reddit-style, AITA?
  8. ashbury
    "Played the OF more." Boo hoo. Move the goalposts now, sure. SMH.
  9. ashbury
    I'll start watching the Farm Dog report on CNBC.
  10. ashbury
    Rain rain go away. Come again some other day when the Twins aren't in town.
  11. ashbury
    I think the other day you pegged his odds at 50-50. Is there some futures market I can invest in, to play these volatile percentages? 😀
  12. ashbury
    Other than Buxton and Kepler, you mean. SMH. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2024-fielding.shtml#all_players_standard_fielding_of And Margot didn't have a start in the outfield until game 7 of the season. He played more, after that, due to injury and/or non-performance of other players higher on the depth chart. But you wanna blame Rocco for adapting to conditions, nothing's gonna stop you.
  13. ashbury
    Maybe a Minnesota record but not yet a franchise record. I checked on bb-ref.com and Senators star Kid Elberfeld took 25 in the ribs or noggin or wherever, back in 1911. Of course he was only a kid then (age 36). And no, he wasn't really a star but he did rack up 33 WAR in his lengthy career, mostly with the Tigers and Highlanders. But even Elberfeld is a piker by comparison. During spring training back in the 1970s, Ron Hunt and Don Baylor would sneak out to the bullpen before the game and throw baseballs at each other's head to warm up, just for the fun of it, when their respective teams met. You Could Look It Up!* * And not find it.
  14. ashbury
    Fortune favors the lucky.
  15. ashbury
    Those here who have met me will recognize a selfie when they see one.
  16. ashbury
  17. ashbury
    You misspelled "ThE bEsT wIn of tHe YeAr!" which is how Cory said it.
  18. ashbury
    The article doesn't provide any real explanation why a different defensive position would be easier on the specific symptom that has sidelined Correa. It's true that aging players get moved "down" the defensive spectrum, but that is almost always due to diminished skill with age, not (to my recollection) to avoid trips to the IL. Even the extreme move to DH isn't a panacea. We all saw the results of trying to keep Byron Buxton in the batting lineup, last year. If a guy's hurt, he's hurt. You have to make athletic moves at the plate and on the bases, too. The heel of the foot being subjected to torsion can happen in many other ways than going all out for a grounder; anyone with plantar fasciitis can attest to that. No, if I'm the manager, I continue to ride Correa at SS until the man tells me he wants a different position, or shows me through his performance that he can't handle the position anymore.
  19. ashbury
    Clearly some if not all of the quotes are made up. No competent business would allow the term "right-size" to be used in public, with or without attribution.
  20. ashbury
    I was unaware of Talk Sox. Seth's mention of it is the first I've seen. I wish it had existed* when I lived in the area 2015-21. I took a look just now, and found a thread entitled "fire alex cora". First post was October 19, 2017. Cora was hired three days later. That's the Sawx fanbase for ya. (The thread is still getting posts now and then.) * ... in its present form, I mean. It appears they took over an older site and put it into a TD-like format.
  21. ashbury
  22. ashbury
    Including while he was on the Injured List. 😊
  23. ashbury
    Man, you can't buy this kind of publicity! (Oh wait, they did, but um, errr...)
  24. ashbury
    This whole health topic is one that I would love to have a discussion with the Twins analytics department. I suspect that each team has their own closely-guarded angle on forecasting player availability. For instance how much of a role does body type play in forecasting pitcher durability? Jose Berrios had some detractors as a prospect due to his physical makeup - but in regard to being there to take the ball every 5 days, he's been rock solid. By contrast the big strong guys who look like farmboys that nothing could harm, break down right and left - or at least that is my subjective recollection. But the teams have access to injury records that I would find difficult to acquire, and maybe I'm wrong, and there are tons of Berrios physiques who spend time on the IL and there are plenty of Tyler Mahle clones (to pick a name) who turn out to be bulletproof. Teams probably each have some kind of special sauce in this area that they rely on. Bottom line, this area is way above my pay grade to try to play armchair GM, so all I can do is grumble and believe I could do better than our FO, without any actual reason to think so. They might already be using all of my little ideas, and then some.
  25. ashbury
    For some other team maybe. Odds would be even lower than that, for the Twins. Though Helman didn't get much chance to show his ability in MLB this year, I'd put him ahead of Farmer as a choice for Opening Day 2025 - and I actually would peg him for St Paul to begin the season, so that means no role for Farmer.
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