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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    It's all interesting but I think merely serves to limit how good of a comp Kelenic is for Julien. The Twins had a problem with lefty hitters against lefty pitchers in 2023. Second worst OPS among all major league teams - Kepler was acceptable, as was Gallo (!) and Gordon (!!), all the others were below .500 (!!!). It may not be simply a matter of lack of opportunity, but somehow they're not being coached to succeed, in which case force-feeding isn't the answer and better technique (whatever that may be) is. Wallner for instance appears to be a fearless batter - he gets a lot of HBP which I assume means he won't back down, and I frequently bring up the AFL game Chief and I watched where he took a pitch off his jaw and he was back in the lineup a few games later and hit like nothing had happened. A tough guy. I don't believe he's flinching when the ball comes from that direction. And yet in his short MLB career his Right/Left split on OPS is .949/.442. That's almost an inconceivable split. It's still small sample size, and he didn't exhibit this problem coming up in the minors, so I don't claim to know the answers. But improvement is mandatory, Priority #1, Wallner and all the other lefties, because 13-man rosters aren't enough to platoon everybody. I don't think Rocco substituting or not substituting is the root cause.
  2. ashbury
    He hit better against lefties than righties in 2023. Doesn't seem like such a gamble as all that. Seattle already paid the price of the learning curve.
  3. ashbury
    Cross the bridge when you actually come to it.
  4. ashbury
    I did check. Against lefty starters b-r.com show a .760 OPS for his career. That counts everything in that game including the righty relievers who then come in. It's a problem with the short-side of a platoon.
  5. ashbury
    This.
  6. ashbury
    I'm not Seth and he hasn't asked me to play him on TV 😀 but MLBTR answered this question in the affirmative today (first paragraph): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/twins-sign-jeff-brigham-brian-okeefe-to-minor-league-deals.html
  7. ashbury
    The Twins preferred Carlos Santana to Bubba. The Reds preferred Bubba to Balazovic. That's gotta sting a little, to our pitcher.
  8. ashbury
    No need to guess; they pay someone to keep track of these things. 😀 Polanco started 54 games at 2B in 2023. Which of course only strengthens your point. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2023-fielding.shtml#all_players_standard_fielding_2b
  9. ashbury
    These thoughts pertain more to FalVine than to Nick Gordon himself, so I'm separating this from the trade discussion involving Okert. The front office plays hardball regarding salary arbitration. Once the player didn't see the wisdom of coming to terms before the arbitrator's decision, win or lose, Gordon was probably gone with a tentative deal with Miami in place, and the timing was only to determine what Miami would return in trade (or whether the Twins would include a bit of cash to cover Gordon's salary if he won arbitration). I know I'm reading more between the lines than some here will stand for, but I look at this as a move the FO finds necessary once in a while, to send a message for later years. Or, maybe they felt Gordon was a bit disgruntled after losing, and might be a clubhouse distraction. Either way, message delivered, if you ask me. If it were roster-balance alone, the trade could have happened long ago or later on. Somehow, bridges got burned. The 40-man roster is now 22 pitchers and 18 position players, if I counted correctly. Some view this as a signal a new batter is going to be acquired, such as a right-handed hitting outfielder. I think the numbers are actually what the FO is comfortable with. If anything, since we're now a bit heavy on relief arms there is still room for an additional starting pitcher, with recent waiver-wire pickup Zack Weiss as the final roster casualty.
  10. ashbury
    Great trade! Who'd we get? 😀 Wait, we got someone who might be useful? Even better. Lefty in the pen with 3 years of control, I'll take it. That's in exchange for someone we would not use. Fine trade. I hold no ill will to Nick Gordon. But his skills never developed the way a first-rounder should have, and maybe Miami will unlock something. As things stood, a left fielder with only a so-so bat, or an infielder without elite defensive skills, doesn't have a place on most major league rosters. Good luck, Nick, you may need it.
  11. ashbury
    You're saying he might learn to switch hit, for his next team? 😀
  12. ashbury
    Not surprised. While the dollar difference is minor in absolute terms, speaking of folks at the MLB level of course, it still seemed to me his agent had given him bad advice when the figures came out a few weeks ago. The inability to even split the difference (which teams often do when they think the player's submitted value is at least arguable), and then to lose in arbitration, would suggest to me that a change in representation is called for.
  13. ashbury
    Bauer has been given "second chances" over and over. I refreshed my memory on his Wikipedia page, and even when he does something nice like set up a charitable donation program, he feels compelled to include some jackassery about it. That's the word that keeps coming to mind, jackass, and from a distance maybe he seems cute and eccentric*, but I can imagine his act wearing thin in a clubhouse quickly. Hard pass, as they say. * Up until his legal troubles, which were not cute and beyond eccentric to vast numbers of people
  14. ashbury
    Or remember, one day later.
  15. ashbury
    Zack Weiss. How quickly we forget. 😀
  16. ashbury
    In the interest of snark* I would like to point out that Balazovic was drafted in 2016 and thus under the prior, Total System Failure, regime. Our current FO held onto him for longer than I might have expected.** * Just one of the many fine services I offer ** And no, I don't know of a real pattern of FalVine playing favorites with "their own" prospects. Which part of "snark" did you not understand?
  17. ashbury
  18. ashbury
    Yeah, I was about to say that "luck" is the operative word there. A guy puts up good stats based on a lower BABIP than his career norm, and next year he mysteriously reverts to form. Almost as if the magic pixie dust causing the ball to fly straight to fielders' gloves has a short shelf life and can't easily be replenished. Or, as you say, luck.
  19. ashbury
    No doubt there will be an actual/official article to come concerning our latest waiver claim. I had expected Bubba and Duarte to be DFA in favor of the newly signed Santana and Jackson. So that breakdown of the moves means that our FO prefers 31-year old minor league journeyman-with-control-problems Zack Weiss to Jordy Blaze. SMH.
  20. ashbury
    That's the Secret Sauce we've all been waiting to hear about!
  21. ashbury
    Not exactly sure what parallel you are drawing, but Willi wasn't a waiver-wire claim, he was signed as a free agent. Unless I'm forgetting, we never had to expose him to waivers after acquiring him.
  22. ashbury
    The Sport of the Future.™ Always has been, always will be. They've been telling me this* since I was a kid. * Outside the US, it's certainly a different story. And even in the US there is a following. The Tottenham winter scarf my son got me a few years ago for Christmas is a good conversation starter in crowds. Go Spurs, I guess.
  23. ashbury
    I'd be perfectly happy to buy into a mutual fund across all these MLB investments.
  24. ashbury
    Evaluation is evaluation. It's a continual and/or repeated process for each player, and for players collectively. I'm not even sure I'm willing to specify where the mis-evaluation was on Wisler, merely that in the end it was pretty much wasted effort for the team because they said goodbye when they didn't have to. His career ERA matches pretty closely with his FIP, and his times of success with regard to ERA have been in relatively smaller samples than in the other seasons when he was mediocre. For his career his Wins Above Average closely matches his Win Probability Added, namely a negative number. His one season with Minnesota ultimately didn't change his career arc.
  25. ashbury
    I was going to reply to the question you replied to, but you laid out a framework first so I'll go off of that. Strictly as an investment, you can't go wrong with most of these. Some are a little better than others. But all are properties that rich people have chosen to invest in, and (mostly) not share with the hoi polloi. So, if I'm offered, I'm in. Any financial success I've had has come from throwing in my lot with people wealthier than me. I saw a negative opinion for the Red Sox, above. Me, I would snap up that opportunity, much as you described for the Dodgers. Buy Quality. If there's a severe economic downturn, the Red Sox shares I hold will still find takers. That might be less true of Marlins and Rockies and A's.
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