ashbury
-
Posts
40,823 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
462
Content Type
Profiles
News
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by ashbury
-
What would we be compensated for, in that scenario? Allowing that would be opening the door to all kinds of front office shenanigans. -
I agree with the logic, but him signing somewhere else at that value would be a disappointment, because I believe the draft pick associated with the rejected QO will be lower if the player signs below a certain threshold. $50M or so? IMO the Twins should make him a serious offer that is at least as high as this threshold, and if he comes back to the team then great, and if he moves on then they get compensated at about the level of a Chase Petty, assuming they draft well.
-
It's definitely a tangent for this thread, but I agree. Gordon's glove doesn't play, in the skill positions up the middle. Gordon's bat doesn't play, at the corners such as LF. He's a tweener, making him a backup at best, and those types of player are usually obtained easily, as witness our pickup of Willi Castro. You mentioned that he hit well in July and August 2022. I checked and in those two months his BABIP was .394. For his career he's almost exactly at league average with .304. By contrast, his blighted 2023 was brought down by a really low BABIP; presumably it would trend back up for 2024. The real Gordon is somewhere between these extremes. Any player who reaches the majors can have his moments - a Twins game I happened to be able to watch at Comerica Park resulted in a lot of laughs with my family as Gordon had the game of his life* and put my disparaging pre-game comments to shame - but all in all he's not in the LF discussion as far as I'm concerned. Not a hill I would die on, especially in this thread about Kepler and Polanco. But you don't replace Kep with Gordon and say, "okay, we're good." * edit - I went back and looked, and actually he's had better games than that one in his major league career, it just stuck out for me as unexpected
-
Trade for a lefthanded starting pitcher? Three options
ashbury replied to DJL44's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Concur. As the old saying goes, I don't care about left-handed pitchers, I care about getting left-handed batters out. Looking at OPS-against by our top 6 by games started, Lopez/Gray/Ryan/Ober/Maeda/Varland.... Lopez and Gray really stifled right-handed batters. Gray didn't have much of a platoon disadvantage, while Lopez's was pretty significant in the normal direction. Weirdly, all four of the others had a reverse-platoon split in 2023. Ryan and Ober were sort of league average against right-handed batters, Maeda* and Varland were pretty terrible against righties. But against lefties all managed to hold the opponents under .700 OPS, much better than MLB average. Surely not a repeatable outcome, unless pitching coach Maki has some kind of voodoo no one else knows about. Still, unless and until something changes, finding a lefty starter is pretty low among the priorities, as opposed to just locating a top arm, period. * Maeda's season was split between trying to tough it out before finally going on the IL, and then being pretty effective when he came back, so I am a bit skeptical about slicing and dicing his data without taking that into account. -
Nelson Cruz Calls it a Career, Retires at 42
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For many purposes, such as roster construction, WAR is the sort of thing I like, at least for rough analysis. But when considering who is among the best of the best, such as HoF discussions, I prefer WAA, Wins Above Average*. The benchmark oughtn't to be random AAAA players, instead at the very least the midpoint of major-league competence. On b-r.com Tony outpaces Nelson by a healthy margin when WAA is the measuring (boom)stick. Which, I think, is more in line with what one really should expect. I guess I'll go there, and say that Win Probability Added, which IMO usually tracks well with WAA moreso than WAR because like WAA its baseline is also something akin to a .500 team, likewise rates Tony better. Nelson Cruz is a shoo-in for the mythical Hall of Very Good. And that is not to demean him - great career. But I don't want to demean Tony Oliva either. * I suppose if the discussion were to turn to Inner Circle HoF, I want something even more stringent than WAA. I just don't know what it would look like. -
Nelson Cruz Calls it a Career, Retires at 42
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The 2019 Bomba Squad wouldn't have been the same without him. Congrats on a great career. The question is stated here and other threads, how about bringing him back to the Twins organization. Nelson has a "big" personality, and in a positive way. Is that personality type a plus as a coach, though? No reason to believe he's not smart enough to adapt, much the contrary, but it's worth thinking about. And some of it might be outside Boomstick's control - say the media chalks up every improvement in hitters' performance to the popular new coach and throws the player himself under the bus if performance slips - will that wear well over a long season? Maybe this is no more than the normal clubhouse chemistry challenge every manager faces, but Rocco will want to think this through since he'll have a lot of say on the coaching staff. Most major league coaches are less renowned than this when they come in. And he has no formal coaching experience - it could be nice to make him a roving instructor for the first season and see what comes of that, but will he want to revisit the minor-league lifestyle? More complicated than "he was great, hire the guy." He was great, no question. -
Pagan Doppelganger resigns with Braves for 3 years and 26 million.
ashbury replied to Brandon's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
To me the 40-man roster spot is more valuable than a million or three dollars, plus or minus. If the price starts to be the deciding factor, at the level being discussed here, I have to ask myself again if I really want him. Does Rocco trust him? That's the key question for roster construction. A guy you're paying veteran money to, should not be a guy you have to carefully pick the moments for, so as to hide him. In 2023, first half, Rocco didn't use Pagan much in high leverage situations. In the second half, he did - not like Duran of course, but in close games and not simply mopup. If that's the usage in 2024, he's worth it. If not, then not. A guy you have to hide, might as well be a rookie making rookie money. Of course, I want better than that for my roster, period. A bullpen full of guys you have to hide isn't a useful bullpen. -
Max has always sported a low BA on balls in play. It's been a reason people have speculated he would soon break out, for years now, since it's unusual for someone with major league skills to have BABIP like .250 when the league generally is up around .300. Now, all of a sudden starting in July and continuing in each month through the rest of the season, his BABIP is up to league average, even a little above, and his good OPS in those months is a reflection of it. Did coach Popkins notice something that unlocked a part of his hidden potential? Is there some other explanation? Will he revert? A right fielder with a good glove and his second half numbers is quite valuable. If his poor post-season numbers are an indication of regression to the old Max, then it may be wise to "sell high" as the saying goes.
-
b-r.com lists his rookie status as still intact. I haven't double checked their math. I misspoke, and winning RoY would only delay a sophomore jinx, not avoid it.🙂
-
A worthy champ.
-
Wow. Wow wow wow.
-
The picture of a young man sick at heart.
-
Oh no! First real fielding blunder.
-
That was big. Only the one run. Texas may look back, same as Arizona, and say what if.
-
Gallen's still in? This is bizarre to me. I mean, you can't take him out when there's no hits. It's the freakin World Series. But after the second hit? Dunno. / edit - and then he goes and notches a strikeout, and NOW he comes out
-
No, no no-no.
-
Longoria, to himself: "He won't throw me that, twice in a row."
-
Gallen's at only 72 pitches. Maybe send him out for another inning?
-
Ooof. Fun inning. (If you don't happen to have a rooting interest, as I don't.)
-
I'm doxxing you to Gallen if, well, you know happens.
-
Gurriel. Man, those outfielders go get 'em.
-
Celebrity Jeopardy is when you drive an old 1980s Chevrolet at freeway speeds today. Pretty exciting.
-
Oh, you.
-
Look for a housecleaning in the off-season.
