ashbury

Must be past my bedtime. Yep, I got hung up on that one absolute statement.

Gallo himself stands to be a cheaper and equally productive version of Joey Gallo.

Socrates is a woman. All women are mortal. Therefore Socrates is mortal. I was probably more direct than I should have been. And I enjoy a good turn of phrase as well as the next rolling stone who gathers no moss. It's just that, the concept that players will be brought up when they're ready and not before, is too often used to squelch debate that questions what the "authorities" in the front office are doing. If the FO is simply going to be the decider, which ultimately they are, then we might as well close the comments section, and all the opinion articles while we're at it. Just report the transactions as they come. That's a lot of meaning assigned to a simple turn of phrase, and if not much of it was behind what you wrote, I'm sorry to have extrapolated unfairly.

I'll have to locate a better emoticon than when I want to suggest that not every word is meant literally and exaggeration is being used as a different way to make a point. So, to be more direct, no, I don't advocate a house cleaning in the FO. Last off-season after two losing seasons I felt that a big change had to be at least on the table if 2023 turned out to be more of the same. I even felt this if they slid into the post-season due to a weak division but then made a quick exit in the post-season. Fair or not, two entertaining wins over Toronto and then a creditable showing versus a good Houston team are enough for me to keep going where they're going. My concern that the franchise was being driven into the ditch is lessened - I'll save for another time my remaining concern. And no, my point isn't to hamstring Falvey and Levine's moves, beyond what ownership seems to be doing to them already for 2024 (the topic of the article). It just seemed fair to point out the converse of the statistical ranking of the batters in 2023 was due in part to Gallo, Farmer, Castro being no great shakes with the bat. (Jury on Castro being a little bit out, but he's on the roster for his versatility.) The ranking I was responding to was for 2023, and for hitting only (not overall position play), so there's no need to turn this into a retrospective of past years, nor of the pitching acquisitions. It was a joke, to make a point. Didn't land, oh well. 🦄

Lemme ask what I think is another good question, then: why do we believe this? Scouting reports I recall question his arm. Same as why he was moved off of SS. I suppose I'd rather have good range and good ability to track fly balls* in the outfield over a good arm, but the whole package is nicer, especially if the bat is looking good-not-great - in which case a corner OF spot to hide his arm starts to look like not-a-difference-maker there either. I hate to sound like I'm always knocking him as a prospect, but the evidence seems to point to something else IMO. It could be that all the grooming at 2B is because he's going to be used as a trade chip in the off-season, so they want to portray him in his best light, to a team that actually has an opening for his skills. * Not that I know of any particular evidence for range and tracking for Martin either - raw speed doesn't necessarily translate directly to range if it can't be harnessed properly

Among logical fallacies, Appeal to Authority is one of the popular ones. It masquerades as profound but says actually nothing. Meanwhile the speaker can sit back and watch events unfold, and then point back and say, see, just like I predicted. On substance, I don't really disagree. Anointing a rookie for a full time role on Opening Day is a risk the front office must carefully weigh first. I don't see anyone, Brooks Lee included, who is a slam dunk at this time. But then I'm still waiting for Anthony Slama to get his fair chance. Now there's a guy who's proven at AAA that he belongs with the big club, and it's time.

If he's such a sure thing at such a critical position of need, why did he play so much 2B (35 games) after coming back from injury in July, and so little (11 games) in center? While Andrew Stevenson was on the St Paul roster, he got the majority of starts in CF. After Stevenson was called up to the majors, Dashawn Keirsey became the primary CF. Austin Martin played CF only now and then, across nearly 3 months. I hope Austin Martin turns out to be a good major leaguer, but I would not plan a single thing around him for the major league roster during this off-season.

Ha, one more Mack Jones nugget. While reading a TD article about Max Kepler, I scrolled down on Max's b-r.com page, and glanced as his most-similar players. For whatever it's worth, his ninth best comp is.... Mack Jones. Don't know whether that makes Jones's case stronger or weaker, TBH. (Jackie Brandt's most-similar players? Chuck Hinton, Tommy Agee, Mike Devereaux.)

He's got the bat. Prior to 2023, he put up two full seasons worth of work maintaining a .874 OPS. That's a first baseman's production, over a long enough time (1066 plate appearances) to not be Small Sample Size. Trouble is, those "two full seasons" as I called it were spread across four years, 2019-2022. He can't stay on the field. We all know that. It's not a point of dispute. But "when healthy" (those dreaded words), those numbers say he is a strong hitter. Heck, in 2023 he started out strong again, then suffered a sequence of debilitating damage that he tried to play through and it wrecked his season. The attempt to keep him healthy by DHing him was a complete failure. I don't want that repeated. He needs to play CF, not 1B, not DH - and not because he doesn't have the chops on offense, but because staying out of CF is not a successful strategy for him. I'm not one who generally tries to be tough guy and tell players what to do. But in this case, my stance would be that if he can't go as a centerfielder, then he sits. If he has to sit for multiple days, then he goes on the IL. If he's on the IL all the time, then at some point a negotiated buy-out is in the interest of both player and team. He's about my favorite Twin, so I don't say any of this out of animosity. But just say no to first base.

Big Papi II. Book it.

Jones's batting numbers at AAA look pretty enticing though. It looks like that '64 squad was blessed with good health for all the regulars. If that were to change, I could see Jones being a real asset as a fourth outfielder. The real Jackie Brandt started to slide in his hitting performance after the '64 season. That's another reason to not sleep on having a guy like Mack Jones to step in for a leading role. I loves me some good defense up the middle, but there is a lower limit on how many runs any defender can save, while there is no upper limit on runs a player can score. Can't argue with success and Brandt clearly contributed to a world championship. But a front office can't be complacent, and CF looks (with the benefit of real-world hindsight of course) like a potential trouble spot. You're set in RF for a while, however. Have I ever mentioned that OOTP is an absolute blast?

Because each level is harder the the previous one, this is certainly not the pattern you would expect. My own rule of thumb is to subtract .100 points of OPS when moving up a level, but human performance isn't nearly as neat and clean as some amateur's rule of thumb. When the unexpected happens, I like to look at BA on Balls In Play. Typical players run around .300 in that stat, so when BABIP is really low, .217 at AA for Prato, or really high, .387 at AAA for him, it seems wise to make allowances, Some call it luck, I call it non-reproducible results, but either way the guy was presumably the same hitter throughout but somehow the balls were maybe going right at fielders the first half of his season, while a few more than normal fell in for him safely during the second half. Presumably the organization's "eye test" was telling the FO that he was performing soundly, otherwise the mid-season promotion would make little sense. They say a player is never as bad as he seems when things are going badly, and never as good as when things go well. The "real" Anthony Prato is likely somewhere between the stat lines of his two half-seasons. Odd, yes. And perhaps all that it is.

Would Keirsey provide any certainty?

Oh, this just gets better and better. The same program as Teddy Ballgame, you say? Executive Summary: Chief's a head case. (I always knew it.)

So the original Chief from 1961 has already kicked the bucket at 99+, and had to be reinstated? Meanwhile I'm a young and spry 37-year old who will live forever, plus with a well-deserved WS title on my resume already. Sweet. Flags Fly Forever.

Unless the team has decided there is something wrong with his makeup (an insight we'll never get until possibly long after the fact), I continue to think Larnach can be an overall above average corner outfielder, with a plus bat and so-so fielding. It seems to me that his struggles at the plate when in the majors have coincided with injury. I guess that would be another thing the team might decide will never get better, if they think he'll be plagued by muscle pulls and strains perpetually. But absent that, I would not like to give up on him for only small return.

Oh yeah, I remember now. That was a long time ago.

Flip side is that none of the outside talent brought in exactly set the world on fire in 2023. Maybe the lesson, with Joey Gallo exhibit A as evidence, is that the FO ought not to be trusted to spend one penny on anyone not already on the roster.

What became of Mack Jones? I thought he was a great rule-5 pickup, but I didn't spot him in any of the displays.

Reputation: Inexperienced. I'm devastated. Personality: Personable. I'm flattered. Age: 37. I'm thrilled.

There's a lot to like about this year's Twins roster of course, but the OP touches on an aspect that seems like the Bad Old Days during Terry Ryan's second reign, and that is the "and if nothing else, he can DH" mantra. That philosophy if not kept in check can lead in games against NL teams to Josh Willingham playing left and Ryan Doumit playing right field, and I use that verb advisedly in both instances. Those old rosters had hardening of the arteries, and unfortunately having Mitch Garver here in 2023 or going forward would feed into that. Not his fault, just not a good fit.

Half's still a lot of course.

Believe what you wish, but it's only half.

Unless the contract was written in some exceptional way, the no-trade clause includes having another team claim him on waivers. The clause is there to protect the player's interest, not simply to hamstring the team in certain ways but leave loopholes for others.

Then Hank Aaron would be the third logical guess - he and Willie and Frank are nearly interchangeable in terms of their odds. After that, there are many excellent players who could have gotten hot; I'll double up my guesses and suggest Tommy Davis, after Hank.