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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    This is it. This was my reaction when I watched him play a couple of years ago for Wichita. How far can he go? Well said.
  2. tony&rodney
    I read this twice but don't understand the connection to what you quoted or the post of what is the core.... or .... Is it that getting the core combinations correct wins championships? This makes sense.
  3. tony&rodney
    This is a question that often comes to my mind when reading various comments online. Reading all of the statistics can be interesting but there is no substitute for seeing. I can explain a Redwood tree endlessly but until you have seen one the reality hasn't set in. That doesn't mean that one cannot be a fan or have strong opinions on the Twins or players but discussions on a common topic, like the core of the Twins for 2024, depends to some extent on understanding the players from having seen them play. I will give just one example - Julien. Young Edouard is a lightning rod of sorts for fan analysts. He was really nervous and seemingly afraid of every ball that came his way early in the year. Every throw looked terrible. As Julien settled in, his play in the field improved dramatically. By the end of the year he was just another average second baseman. Those who watched him play could see the increase in range, the shifting of his weight, and see how he began to (mol) smoothly transfer the ball from glove to hand and complete the plays. A refusal to acknowledge the improvement could only be due to Not having watched the games. Is Julien a part of the next core? I don't know about that, but I know that there is Correa and Buxton leading the team. That is the core, plain and simple. Others are free to take up the banner. We shall see who it is and you can judge for yourself by watching the games.
  4. tony&rodney
    Royce Lewis has had his status elevated very quickly among Twins fans. The home runs in the playoffs and his energy when he came aboard were great. It just seems a little early to declare Lewis a star. I mean, I hope he is as much as anyone else. He only has about 250 at bats though. Next season will be huge for Royce as he attempts to become the superstar often associated with #1-1 draft picks. The core is in flux and unsteady as others have mentioned. The Twins have holes and there will be plenty of challenges for the Twins to repeat as AL Central Division winners. The two biggest questions go right towards our stars: Buxton and Correa. From there the Twins have questions about their young guys and a hole in the rotation. Other than that, everything is great.
  5. tony&rodney
    When I read that I thought that both Falvey and Maki were being very optimistic. I'm bullish on Paddack but building up in games is different than building up on the side. I will take the under at 110 innings. Another question might be ... Did we all take Maeda for granted? Lastly, Paddack is signed for 2025 and the Twins will want to protect him in 2024 when necessary in order to get full value from Paddack in 2025.
  6. tony&rodney
    To be clear, i like Paddack. He is going to find it tough at times this year but we can hope he does well. I agree about the challenge trades similar to the Lopez-Arraez deal. BTW, I was proposing trading Arraez to Miami from the start of last offseason, including deals that acquired Lopez for much more than the final deal. I thought Lopez was a stretch but the Marlins really wanted Arraez. It will be more difficult to trade this offseason. Any deal for a good pitcher will be far more costly than Arraez was last year.
  7. tony&rodney
    I just saw this. Ok, I believe we just see these guys quite differently. Agree to disagree. Your points stand for you. I don't disagree with that.
  8. tony&rodney
    I may be the only one who takes Falvey at his word of a reduced payroll. It will be a pleasant surprise if the Twins roll out a 2024 payroll of $140-150 million. Ray should be ready to pitch in late July if everything goes well but not fully ready to be back without restrictions until 2025. That (mol) effectively means $74 million for two years ($37M per year). That is what I see. The trade is nonsensical in my view. I agree that others see something entirely different. What do we say here ..... I would be glad to eat crow. I do not believe the Twins are doing that trade for two specific reasons: 1) It isn't a real thing. Seattle is not throwing out ideas like this; and 2) Money. Why would the Twins trade for Ray when they would not sign Gray? Ford and Clase do not have the excess value needed and the point is moot; money.
  9. tony&rodney
    The expectations for Chris Paddack need to be realistic. He is coming back from his second TJ surgery. Paddack has worked hard and the Twins brought him back carefully, which resulted in a brief trial bullpen role at the end of the season. The Twins will be looking at Paddack as their #5 starting pitcher and be judicious in skipping his turn in the rotation from time to time. A season of 100+ innings will be a success. Paddack is not comparable to Maeda on many fronts, from the type of pitches thrown to their experience. Anyone expecting Paddack to eclipse Maeda's pitching is searching for disappointment. I expect that Paddack will have a good year for the Twins. I'm not thinking he has the WHIP and BAA numbers of a usual Kenta Maeda.
  10. tony&rodney
    Twins say no.
  11. tony&rodney
    Nobody will trade for Ray unless Seattle adds a significant player, which they currently do not have. Kelenic was that guy. Ray is due $74M. Sonny Gray is a better choice and that is mol what he signed for with St. Louis. Jordan Montgomery will want the same contract. Thus, why trade for Ray, a guy who is a bit iffy and actually more expensive when one considers that Robbie will only be ready after the All Star Game next summer. 2.4 years for $74 million is expensive. But, what do I know? Perhaps Seattle throws in Emerson Hancock and the recently acquired Cole Phillips with Ray to a team for a signed baseball. Then Seattle can sign Snell and Yamamoto.
  12. tony&rodney
    Paddack could be totally solid for 100 innings and he may take the ball as a starting pitcher for around 17 games. Expecting anything more doesn't seem realistic. I'm feeling positive about Chris Paddack.
  13. tony&rodney
    Kelenic was a type (high Ks) the Mariners had said they were moving away from this offseason. Atlanta needed some pitching (Marco) and think they can fix Kelenic. White is attached because the return is low with Atlanta taking on salary. Seattle is clearly clearing salary for a bigger deal. They are not going to go into 2024 with a roster under $120M. I would think that the Mariners have several ideas percolating and may be attempting to unload Robbie Ray as well. Guys like Gurriel Jr., Tim Anderson on a rebound, and Yamamoto would fit neatly into their team.
  14. tony&rodney
    Time for the offense to take a turn. I'm feeling pretty good about the possibilities for the Twins offense swinging a good stick on a consistent basis throughout the year. The pitching will be hard pressed to repeat their team statistics. The Twins have some good guys right now but need a push from a notable arm (or two). Chris Paddack could be good and if he can throw 110 innings of 4.00 ERA, that would be huge. Louie Varland is an unknown. He could pitch 180 innings of 4.10 ERA ball to pick up the team but he is also unpredictable. No doubt, the Twins are hanging right now with a real need to improve their starting staff. Perhaps Ohtani signs and everyone gets to work filling in their rosters.
  15. tony&rodney
    Aaron Sabato.
  16. tony&rodney
    Yup, I believe this is the conundrum for Falvey. He has to give up some really important guys to get what he wants or it doesn't happen. That, and he needs to outbid the competition. I have zero idea what Yamamoto offers other than what I have read. I don't believe the Twins bothered to put in a call, although I have no idea. It sure seems like a gamble on him, if the reports of his potential are true, would solve a host of concerns for the Twins. Then again, here we go ... back to the budget. A budget of $120-125M puts a real squeeze on any move. A budget of $140M allows for a player. So it goes in Twinsland.
  17. tony&rodney
    The Mariners are a good trading partner for the Twins, but the Twins aren't necessarily a good trading partner for the Mariners. Seattle has guys like Kirby and Gilbert to drool over, but Seattle is only going to listen if the offers begin with Lewis, Lee, or Julien. Additionally, there are a number of teams who could offer Seattle quite a bit, starting with Tampa Bay.
  18. tony&rodney
    I, for one, appreciate your dedication to your idea of acquiring Devin Williams from Milwaukee. We can never be sure of whether Milwaukee is interested in moving on from their closer or what the Brewers would want in return for Williams if the club was open to a trade. That said, I would not trade David Festa for Devin Williams, straight up. Emmanuel Rodriguez is off the table unless we are talking Logan Gilbert and Seattle is not looking for prospects. Em-Rod isn't appreciably behind Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee in value (ignore BTV). Trades are difficult and everyone has ideas for improving their team. The trick is to guess how each team benefits, and that is why the trade of Arraez worked, despite the firestorm of anger it initially created here on Twins Daily. Others, may have different thoughts on your proposal which you have so patiently put forth on a daily basis. This is mine.
  19. tony&rodney
    A ton of people have thought that the Twins could benefit with Royce Lewis playing in the outfield. There are, however, people who are involved directly in that decision who have other thoughts. These include all of Falvey, Baldelli, Boras, and Lewis. One reality is that Royce Lewis has only had a couple of dozen occasions to play outfield as a baseball player and despite having good speed he was always noted as looking uncomfortable on the grass. Coaches and others all suggested he could develop and become a good outfielder and Lewis himself felt he was progressing as a centerfielder. Unfortunately, his two injuries changed some thoughts on using Lewis as an outfielder. I do not believe that an athlete like Lewis is more likely to get injured in the outfield, but those decisions are made by someone else. For now, I'm believing the guys who say he is an infielder now and in the future. Things could always change .... Mookie Betts was a starting infielder as often as Kyle Farmer last season.
  20. tony&rodney
    The center of all discussions, regarding the offensive side of the Twins team, seems to always revolve around Buxton. Most people also feel that the Twins need a plan to cover for has been an inevitable injury. Having a guy like Austin Martin as the backup option is risky but one i can accept given the cost of the other iffy options. My main concern is how Byron returns if healthy. Last season Buxton obviously battled some significant challenges with leg issues which resulted in a dramatic shift in his swing. Buxton will hopefully begin his settling back into baseball activities with full health because he will need to completely rebuild his swing and approach at the plate. This can be accomplished with close supervision and disciplined work habits in the cage and on the field. I am optimistic about a return of the talent Buxton has flashed at moments during his career. I also hope that his preparation for 2024 includes a focus on contact with his bat. Where once that was ridiculed or marked down, we have plenty of knowledge/evidence that Buxton has the bat speed and strength to punish the baseball. His desperate attempt to contribute last year included full on wild hacks whose only goal seemed to be reaching notable lengths on home runs. If you have no base for your swing and cannot run, the big swing is a consequence. Full health allows for a return to fundamental practices and this could push Buxton back to an All Star status. That would be sweet.
  21. tony&rodney
    The Twins signed Chris Paddack to a three year contract after he was injured, which was shortly after he arrived via trade. I believe I stated that Paddack is being counted on next season to provide 100-120 innings if everything goes perfectly. I do not believe Paddack has a higher ceiling than Kenta Maeda. Paddack has more velocity on his fastball, but it is quite a stretch to see Paddack having a career as effective as the one achieved by Kenta Maeda. To be clear, Chris Paddack can still have a fine career and I hope he blows by any and all markers already achieved by Maeda. This is, however, a hope for the future.
  22. tony&rodney
    Sadly, he may have already been voted off the island by his peers in addition the PR departments.
  23. tony&rodney
    Young guys like Julien, Wallner, and Lewis are risky, but they have each shown enough to deserve playing time. Prospects such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are looking close to ready and should make a positive contribution this coming season. If the Twins can hold their depth, I can see an improved offense. Losing Solano is tough but there are enough guys to fill for him. a major key, that many worry about, is how do Kirilloff and Miranda bounce back from shoulder hurts. I agree that the depth will look differently but I also expect it to be pretty good. A couple of guys i like as players to fill positions around the field on occasion are Anthony Pratto and Michael Helman. These players are a little older, very good in the field and on the bases and provide some pop. They do need to be added back into the minor leagues before another organization pilfers them. I see a higher upside for the depth but a lower floor is also a risk.
  24. tony&rodney
    Chris Paddack's season will be considered successful if he pitches 100 innings. Louie Varland will only be restricted by how often he can pitch 5-8 innings and hold the other team to 3 runs (pitch effectively). The offense needs to step forward and score runs on a consistent basis all year in 2024 because we should not expect the pitching to carry the team to the same extent as in 2023. I'm fine with the current roster but still see opportunities for trades. Milwaukee might be a decent trade partner. Burnes is the guy whose name is most often the lead and he would be a TOR guy. Another player, perhaps unobtainable, is Jeferson Quero. Maybe the Twins throw out a risky proposition of trading Joe Ryan, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Winder for Corbin Burnes and Jeferson Quero. I'm not sure either team likes this challenge idea though. It all comes down to how the Twins see their young MLB players and top prospects fitting together this year and going forward. Maybe a simple addition of Michael Wacha works but I believe he will get a pretty decent multi-year contract.
  25. tony&rodney
    The thing I did not like about the Mahle trade was that he was already being watched for shoulder problems, which when serious are mostly the end for a pitcher. Mahle went down in the spring with an elbow problem (TJ) but the shoulder issue was still not totally settled. The other thing that bothered me about that trade was giving up CES. Normally I want to stay away from dudes who are not multi-athletic and fast, but I couldn't help but tune into (milb.com) as many Cedar Rapids and Wichita games as possible when CES was batting. He just is such a good hitter and learned so quickly. Logan Gilbert is a free agent after the 2027 season, so there are four seasons left of contract control. I will spare all of the details - he is very good. Kirby is rated higher but I prefer Gilbert. I'm real big on all of Lewis, Julien, and Lee. I'm wondering what is a possibility for acquiring Gilbert. He may not be available but Seattle has one guy pestering them because he wants to play in Seattle (Snell) and Seattle has their eyes on another guy, Yamamoto. There is a chance to obtain a Seattle guy. What is the cost? If the Twins cannot sign a free agent like Yamamoto, which apparently they won't, a trade is their next avenue. I am more bullish on Louie Varland David Festa than most, but feel the Twins need a pitcher to replace Sonny Gray.
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