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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Baseball Prospectus is out with their prediction for the Twins in 2023 - between 88 and 89 wins and first in the AL Central. They attribute the bullpen with 4.5 wins above replacement, led by Duran (no surprise) but followed pretty closely by Moran, Thielbar, and PAGAN (I kid you not). Lopez and Jax trail behind those three. Hmmm.
  2. arby58
    Well, every player is a question mark if you don't accept past performance as at least an indicator of future results. Jax was great last year, start to finish - I'd say he's not much of a question mark. Same with Thielbar. Along with Duran, I'd say that's a pretty good bullpen foundation.
  3. arby58
    Why not? He's 6'2" so would have the size you prefer there. He hits, he plays, right?
  4. arby58
    You could say that about any relief pitcher, since their innings pitched are a smaller sample size than starters. That said, the data across the board is solid - and ERA is really not the stat to rely upon, particularly for relievers.
  5. arby58
    That's correct, based on last year. I think the hope is that the shift restrictions help Kepler (I think that is a sound assumption) and Gallo returns to prior form (we'll see). That said, if they aren't hitting particularly well but are great defensively, they'll see some time. That is certainly the best feature of Taylor's game (granted, he was far better offensively than either Gallo or Kepler last year).
  6. arby58
    It's complicated. Nelson Cruz, Jim Thome, Chili Davis, etc. were not a 'wasted cog.' As has also been pointed out, if a player is a negative defensvely (as Arraez was, and Miranda probably will be), it'd be better to keep their bat in the lineup and put a better defender in the field. That's why my long-term bet (if he hits and doesn't improve defensively) is on Miranda as a semi-regular DH.
  7. arby58
    I tend to agree, especially with Kepler and Gallo, as a big part of their value is as defensive outfielders.
  8. arby58
    Still possible they move Kepler, which frees up a spot for Larnach. I like them getting a right-handed bat for first base, as Kiriloff hit .167 against left handed pitching last year (granted, a small sample size).
  9. arby58
    Gallo is primarily in outfielder (and a good one defensively). Solano is primarily an infielder. Gallo bats from the left side, Solano from the right side. Those don't sound redundant to me.
  10. arby58
    Lee played a handful of games at AA last year, and that was also the level for Julien - neither of them has even played a game at AAA, so calling them 'ready' is a stretch. Meanwhile, using healthy in the same sentence as Lewis or Kiriloff remains to be seen, and in Lewis' case probably won't be known for several months. The move is solid - the Twins have more depth on this team than any in a long time.
  11. arby58
    The good news is the Twins are pretty well set in the infield in 2023, so even if he's doing well, there isn't an urgent need to move him up (knocking on wood that injuries don't pile up ala 2022).
  12. arby58
    If both Lewis and Lee 'make it' while Correa is slotted at SS, Polanco at 2B, and Miranda is at 3B, there's a bit of a log jam there. My guess is if this transpires, Miranda becomes primarily a DH. If Lewis' mobility is reduced but he can still rake, he could also become an option at 1B. Of course, if they both make it, it's a good problem to have (and makes a player like Farmer expendable).
  13. arby58
    Not a chance - he is untouchable. Comparisons with Mike Trout if he tears up high-A (Trout played at Cedar Rapids at 18) wouldn't be out of place.
  14. arby58
    If you compare Julien's numbers at AA with Arraez, there really is no comparison - Julien's power and speed are far more impactful. Yes, he's older than Arraez was at AA, but if he hits anywhere near that at AAA, the Twins will find a place for him, and a DH who hits for average, power, and can steal bases is far better than anybody else they will trot out there.
  15. arby58
    I don't understand/agree with the claim they have managed Arraez very poorly. Last year, he appeared in 147 games and had 603 plate appearances. For a player who is primarily a hitter, what is very poor about that? In fact, I think they have managed him pretty well, considering that he doesn't have a natural defensive position and isn't particularly fast on the bases (which is what you would expect from a hitter with his high OBP and not-so-high slugging percentage). The Twins have actually maximized his potential, but he has real shortcomings.
  16. arby58
    Simmons never won a gold glove - Mauer won three. Simmons had never won an MVP - he finished 6th, 9th, and 10th in his best years - Mauer finished 1st, 4th, and 6th in his best years. Simmons won one silver slugger award, Mauer won five. In terms of peak performance, they are not similar.
  17. arby58
    He'll get in for being both a three-time Gold Glove winning catcher while also winning three batting titles and an MVP. He has a higher career OPS than Rod Carew mostly because of a higher slugging percentage. Carew was a first ballot HOFer.
  18. arby58
    I think he'll get in, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it being on the first ballot. I've yet to see a baseball writer pen a scathing story/column about Joe Mauer the person. Given the stats are strong, my guess is they'd rather vote for him than some other worthy player who was more jerky toward their profession.
  19. arby58
    But it's not just 'have in their system' it's keeping them on the MLB roster for the entire year. That's an even bigger restriction on 'impulse buying' especially as rosters have shrunk compared to the COVID years.
  20. arby58
    Right - they have to stay on the MLB roster for the entire season. Do we really think there are 5 unprotected Twins minor leaguers that teams are itching to get and keep on their roster for the entirety of the 2023 season? If so, the various rankings of minor league systems (where the Twins are more in the middle or toward the bottom) are missing something.
  21. arby58
    He's shown promise - there are very few players that show up in the majors and immediately start hammering pitching. There have been very productive months-at-at-time stretches, and the cratered months can/might be attributable to the injury issues. Look at his history - he put up very strong stats in college (perhaps the best player on the team that won the College World Series), strong stats at each stop in the minors. The pedigree is there. Then there is the defense - he's got a tremendous arm. That alone is worthy of 'the look' and part of why in less than a third of a season, he had a 1.1 WAR this year.
  22. arby58
    Agree with adding Bundy to the list. My third pick (along with Thielbar and Urshela) originally was Garlick - when he was out, they missed him against left handed pitching. Still, Bundy has been more impactful, and many Twins fans wanted to DFA him after the first couple months of the season.
  23. arby58
    Baseball is probably the toughest sport to gauge how talent will translate into results - and these are excellent examples. A side note - Chase Petty, the 100 mph pitcher the Twins traded for Sonny Gray, is 0-6 with a 3.77 ERA for the high-A Dayton Dragons. Granted, he is still younger than most of the competition and may well turn into a great major league pitcher, but where would the Twins be this year without Gray (7-4, 3.04 ERA in 20 starts)? Answer: third place in the Division.
  24. arby58
    When the Twins traded Eduardo Escobar in 2018, they had 'nothing to show for the trade' until 2022 - and now Jhoan Duran is one of the top relief pitchers in baseball. Sometimes you have to have a bit of patience.
  25. arby58
    I generally agree with your list, but if I were a GM calling the Twins, the player I'd ask for in any trade for an established player was Duran. He has great upside potential and a long period of team control. You worry about an injury to any pitcher who throws as hard as he does, but still - he needs to be on the list somewhere. Of course, the Twins wouldn't trade him, but Buxton is first on the list, and I seriously doubt they'd consider trading him either.
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