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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Of course, they will want Lewis first, but the Twins aren't trading Lewis - that's a non-starter. I still think one of Julien or Lee can be had, but not both. If one of them goes, Kepler is the logical next from the Twins perspective, to maintain infield depth with Polanco. I'd guess Seattle asks for Wallner second, and the Twins would only give up Wallner if they get back one of Seattle's already proven starters with some team control (since Wallner is controllable for a long time).
  2. arby58
    I agree that if Nick Gordon is his replacement I'm less inclined to make a trade. That said, I assume the first shot at a corner outfield spot would be Trevor Larnach. He's been on the cusp of being a bona fide MLB outfielder - probably now or never.
  3. arby58
    The top three teams in payroll last year did not make the play-offs. The Diamondbacks were in the World Series with a payroll that ranked 21/30 in MLB.
  4. arby58
    That was my point as well. It may work itself out, as Polanco has only had one full season in his last four and may be better suited to occasional play in the field and DH. In that case, the lynchpins are Buxton playing the outfield and IF Lee is ready to play in the major leagues. If Buxton can play some in the field, they have more flexibility. If Lee is ready, you probably move Polanco and expect Lee to play some at all three infield spots.
  5. arby58
    Wallner is a lot to give up, but so was Arraez. If the Angels really are in 'win now' mode (not sure I believe it unless they re-sign a certain pitcher/DH), they may want a closer to ready prospect instead of Raya. Maybe the Twins could limit the damages with, say, SWR, who was at Triple A last season. I'd only do the deal if the Twins really think Sandoval can be/become a number 2-3 starter.
  6. arby58
    In 2021, at A and A+, Julien played 181 innings at 1B, 341 at 2B, 189 at 3B, and 120 in LF. In 2022, at AA, he played all 813 innings at 2B. In 2023, between AAA and MLB, he played 819 innings at 2B and 17 at 1B. It's pretty clear from this that the Twins do not view Julien as a viable everyday option at 1B. Any other reading is trying to shove a square peg into an analytical round hole.
  7. arby58
    If they keep Farmer, it will be Farmer.
  8. arby58
    Kirilloff has 702 total plate appearances in MLB, and at least last year he was trending up at .793. That is not the case with Polanco.
  9. arby58
    I'm not in favor of moving either Julien or Polanco to first base. Offensively, they work from a comparative advantage standpoint at second, not so much at first. Arraez was a stop-gap measure at 1B, and Carew was a perennial All-Star. Carew's OPS the three years he played 1B for the Twins were .858, 1.019 (his MVP season) and .853. Polanco's last four years OPS were .658, .826, .751, and last year .789. Those are not first baseman numbers for a team wanting to advance in October.
  10. arby58
    The Yankees might have some interest in Kepler, given the short right field porch at Yankee stadium. A lot of long fly outs at Target Field would be in the bleachers there.
  11. arby58
    I'm not in favor of the rental trades, but if they can swing it for Mountcastle, that is more promising given his under $1 million a year salary and years of team control. That said, it doesn't look like there was any discernable difference in his home/away batting splits in 2023 - 9 HRs at home, 9 away. .767 OPS home, .789 away. He was actually better at home in 2022 - same number of home runs home and away, but his .OPS at home was .767, and it was .691 away.
  12. arby58
    The article is about Gibson, the comment you were replying to was about him eating innings. Parse it any way you want, I comprehend your latest as 'walking it back.'
  13. arby58
    That's exaggerating Gibson's profile. Other than his rookie season, he hasn't ever had a 5.5 ERA. Given that he was 15-9 last year, it's also not the case that 'generally' the Orioles lost when he started.
  14. arby58
    I suppose it depends on what a team values. Gibson will absolutely eat innings - 192 in 2023, 168 the year before., and 182 the year before that. He's a pretty dependable back of the rotation guy, even at 36 years of age. Gibson's probably more dependable but Maeda has more upside.
  15. arby58
    Jose Altuve's range factor/9 innings was 3.4 last year; Julien's was 3.67. The league average was 4.06. Sounds like that Altuve guy won't be playing second base anymore.
  16. arby58
    Switch hitters are nice to have, but if there is a marked difference in performance on opposite sides of the plate, it's not such a great advantage. Last year, Lee had 458 ABs against RHP and an OPS of .860 with 14 home runs - that's good. He had 109 ABs against LHP and a .603 OPS with 2 HRs - not so good. He'll need to improve those numbers against LHPs for his switch hitting to be considered a material asset.
  17. arby58
    The Sonny Gray trade worked out ok - the Twins got 2 strong years of starting pitching for an 18 year old pitcher who was just getting to AA at the end of last year. Granted, he throws 100 mph, but his minor league performance to date hasn't exactly been lights out. Plus the Twins will likely get a decent draft pick when Gray signs elsewhere. Gray was a decent pitcher coming off a so-so year when the Twins traded for him, and maybe that's the approach they take this year - find a pitcher where they like the peripherals, even if the results the last year or so weren't earth shattering.
  18. arby58
    The preference for Lee over Julien is not based on comparable offensive metrics. First, Julien is the one with MLB experience and put up a nice 2.6 WAR IN 338 AB for the Twins, with an .839 OPS and a 130 OPS+. He also had 170 ABs at AAA, with a .932 OPS. Lee split time between AA and AAA last year and had an .808 OPS. Julien played at AA the prior year and had a .931 OPS. Lee has more defensive ability and positional flexibility, to be sure - but the offensive statistics favor Julien. The claim that he has somehow 'peaked' after 338 MLB ABs is, given his history in the major and minor leagues, baffling.
  19. arby58
    I'm not so sure Seattle would want starting pitching back - or why trade a sure thing starting pitcher in the first place? I'm more inclined to think they would want two position players. If that is the case, Jenkins is untouchable, and Rodriguez strikes me as having huge upside potential. After that, it starts getting negotiable.
  20. arby58
    Agree on Lee. He may well become a very good player, but Julien showed that he was already close to that level - and his performance was at the MLB level. If you take Julien's 338 at bats, 60 runs, and 16 home runs and project it over 500 at bats, you get 89 runs scored and 24 home runs - pretty good for a lead-off hitter who had an .839 OPS and 130 OPS+. Julien looks like the 2B, Correa is at SS and Lewis at 3B. Granted, there are always concerns about depth, but if Lee and another decent prospect (much as I like Severino, he might be the other piece) get you there for a #2 starting pitcher? I'd do it.
  21. arby58
    The difference with Ober is the players who they chose instead of him were legitimately better choices. There is no 'legitimate' rationale for choosing Gordon over Castro. Besides, the point is to keep players on the MLB roster who you believe can best help you win games. Unless Gordon has a stratospheric spring training, he hasn't proven he's better than Castro for any of the five baseball tools.
  22. arby58
    Leverage decreases as you approach the fulcrum. Every team will know that Gordon is out of options, so thinking you'll just wait until late in spring training to decide means you are left with the options of keeping him on the roster or waiving him. If there is something to get for him, you have to do it sooner rather than later.
  23. arby58
    It's still cute by half. You don't do this to players who performed well for you the prior year. It creates ill will you do not need with players you are going to need.
  24. arby58
    I don't understand the business logic of cutting loose a player who plays the same set of positions, is faster, better defensively, hits for more power, and had a far better year than Gordon last year. This strikes me as too cute by half.
  25. arby58
    The Twins have lots of players with positional flexibility. The issue is whether you need two 'Swiss Army Knife' players. If Gordon were particularly good at any one thing, maybe - but he's not particularly fast, doesn't have a strong arm, isn't going to hit for power, and was really poor offensively last year before he got hurt. I'm not seeing the case for him making a 26 man roster.
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