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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Arraez had 524 plate appearances for the Padres, a good offensive team; he scored 61 runs and drove in 41. Neither of those statistics screams out 'impact offensive player.'
  2. arby58
    Last year, Arraez' OBP was .347, and Castro was .331, so not a huge difference. Castro scored more runs, probably because he runs better and has more pop. Castro had a better WAR, and he's a better defensive player. The biggest difference is salary - Castro's is $6.4 million versus Arraez' $14 million. I'll take Castro.
  3. arby58
    He had 500 at bats with the Padres last year (a good hitting team that was 8th in MLB in runs scored) and scored 61 runs - that is not someone who is going to score 100+ runs. In fact, he's never done it. The best he's done was 88 with the Twins in 2022. Meanwhile, his OPS+ last year was 106 - not particularly impressive. Plus, he clogs up the bases because he is a slow baserunner. All that for $14 million in 2025? No thanks.
  4. arby58
    The Arraez love affair never ceases to amaze me. He wins batting titles, but it doesn't translate into many runs scored, as he doesn't run well and lacks power. So, he had the fourth best batting average in MLB last year but was 39th in runs scored. He's not great defensively either. As a result, he was little more than a replacement player, with a WAR of 1.1. That would have ranked him just ahead of everybody's favorite former Twin whipping boy, Max Kepler, who had a WAR of 1.0.
  5. arby58
    Anything is possible, the Royals showed that last year. That said, a 20 win jump is unlikely. I think this team is more likely to be there in 2026 than 2025.
  6. arby58
    SWR is a proven MLB pitcher. Not giving him up for one year of Cease. Festa has huge upside - again, no deal. Maybe Matthews. Are the Twins really a WS candidate in 2025? I''m not giving up team control for young promising arms for one year unless that is the case.
  7. arby58
    Yeah, but Cease says no, so it's sort of like when I was a kid and wanted a pony.
  8. arby58
    I'm not interested in one year of Cease for Ryan or Ober (both of whom are proven starters with far more team control), as he isn't that much better that he makes the Twins a World Series contender. Even Festa would be hard to swallow. When Chicago dealt him, he had two years of team control, and now it is half that, so the 'haul' in return should be less. Besides, the Padres need a catcher. I'd suggest a couple of lower level prospects plus Vasquez.
  9. arby58
    Except the defensive stats aren't all world. I appreciate your opinion, I would just like to see actual stats that match up with the claim. Even an fWAR of 0.8 (last year) isn't all that thrilling, and Jeffer's was more than twice that.
  10. arby58
    Cartaya is young - he was 3.4 years younger than average in AA and 4.7 years younger than average in AAA. He put up a .656 OPS at AA and .686 last year between AA and AAA. Those aren't exactly 'Hedges like' given his OPS has been well under .500 for five consecutive years.
  11. arby58
    Hedges is a pure number 2 catcher - he had 146 plate appearances last year; Vasquez had more than twice that many (315). You can't compare their roles. Same with Leon - he didn't have any MLB plate appearances last year, In 2023, he had 44, and in 2022 he had 86.
  12. arby58
    OK, that was funny. From what I hear, Cartaya is a good defensive catcher. Could he possibly do worse than a 60 OPS+ offensively?
  13. arby58
    MLB calculates DWAR for catchers. Both Christian and Ryan check in at 0.5, which is tied for 25th. Seriously, with a 60 OPS+, you can't be 25th among catchers in DWAR.
  14. arby58
    It doesn't have to be 120, but 100 seems completely reasonable.
  15. arby58
    He hasn't really been afforded the opportunity. He's entering his sixth MLB season - seems like it's time to 'stretch him out.'
  16. arby58
    Fair enough, but we have offensive measures, and there are few MLB regulars, including catchers, that have an OPS+ of 60.
  17. arby58
    I certainly try to agree with you as well, but this is premium hyperbole. When you have a 60 OPS+ as a regular player, you are an incredible drag on a team's offense. The defense would have to be Gold Glove worthy or the rest of your lineup absolute beasts - neither is/was the case. You make it sound like he should have gotten votes for team MVP.
  18. arby58
    I don't know that it is an issue of fairness - you like your Fan Graphs stat, I like Baseball Reference's. In neither case is he going to set the world on fire - and if another catcher handles, say, 60 games a year, I highly doubt it will be catastrophic for the Twins.
  19. arby58
    There is no reason to believe that if Vazquez is traded the second catcher would catch 50 percent of the time. For example, Bo Naylor started 101 games and appeared in 115 at catcher for the Indians. That's not exactly iron man status either - there are catchers that catch more than that. Cal Raleigh started 125 games and caught in 135 last year. Shea Langeliers was 123 and 131. Logan O'Happe was 121 and 127. Etc., etc., etc.
  20. arby58
    He's been below replacement level performance according to WAR both of the last two years. How much worse can it get?
  21. arby58
    Less than replacement level: -0.2 WAR last year. -0.3 WAR the year before. OPS+ of 60 and 64. The Twins offense collapsed down the stretch last year - having practically give away at bats from one batter in your starting lineup is not helpful.
  22. arby58
    Dobnak had been in the minors for 3 years before the Twins added him last year, with unspectacular results. He has a career WAR of -0.2. Margot before being traded to the Twins had a 12.2 career WAR, and 0.6 the year before. They are not comparables.
  23. arby58
    The Twins would have dumped Dobnak long ago if not for his contract. Why would anybody trade for the chance to pay a AAA player well in excess of the league minimum?
  24. arby58
    I prefer your latter approach, but I suspect neither gives Skubal the perhaps head and shoulders edge over any other starting pitcher in the division. The other approach, which you provide at the start, is to just add up last year's WAR - which, of course, is predicting future outcomes based on past results, and every financial product will provide a disclaimer related to that approach. It also does not account for seasons cut short by injuries. Last year, it would have been hard to claim the Royals would have the best starting pitching in the division - some pitchers will emerge. As others have suggested, that may well be Festa for the Twins this year (just as SWR was an afterthought at this time last year).
  25. arby58
    'The lower you are on the totem pole' means you probably can't 'get money to spend' (i.e., loans, credit cards), so I don't see that as relevant. Inflation is a far bigger threat to lower income spending power. In fact, Powell and the FOMC did a great job of bringing down inflation without materially raising unemployment. I think the series on Pohlad is interesting/useful, but this straying into discussions of economic policy is woefully superficial.
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