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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    I'm not that confident... I remember well the 2009 Twins (a pleasant memory, for once). Trailed the Tigers big in September. 5.5 games on September 14! Still trailed by 2 games with 3 left to play! Yet, they came back to tie the Tigers, and won the one game playoff. The Twins got very hot (finished 17-4), while the Tigers played relatively poorly. Of course, the reward for the Twins was a playoff series with the D*#$ Yankees. I want a sweep, and even then I won't stop looking over my shoulder until the Guardians are without hope.
  2. Road trip
    Lopez has been good, certainly. Among the best years in team history? No, sorry, not close, unless he has a really dominant September. He has the strikeouts, but his ERA is merely above average. 7 losses, all deserved for the most part. He might be the best Twins starter this year, but I'd probably go with Gray (much better ERA). Santana (several times), Viola (at least twice), Blyleven (again, multiple times) even the 1 year flashes of Liriano and Scott Erikson were all more dominant years. I won't even dig back to some of the great Twins pitchers of the 60's/70's era, I hope Lopez eventually puts out a year like those. He's got an interesting back story and seems like a really nice guy. I'm rooting for him, to be sure, but piling up strikeouts alone isn't a great year, especially in an era when strikeouts are at an all time high. Hopefully this article is dead on for 2024 😁
  3. Road trip
    Can't speak for the board, but I was among those that didn't/don't like the Arraez deal. I loved watching Arraez. Still do. I can't remember a Twins hitter this century who I enjoyed watching more (yep, that includes Mauer, Morneau, and all the others). You'd have to go back to Pucket, and before that Carew. It may be irrational, and it isn't based entirely on numbers, but Arraez is a generational player. A unicorn. We won't see another Arraez in a Twins uniform for a long time, if ever. Now Julien thus far is a good hitter. I enjoy watching his AB's, possibly more than any other current Twin. But he isn't Arraez. And unlike Arraez we don't really know what we have yet in Julien... too early.
  4. Road trip
    I'd be willing to trade Julien due to his defensive limitations and our depth at 2nd (esp with the option to keep Polanco another year), but think I'd want a pitcher a little more established than a prospect (which, to me at least, means someone still in the minors). A Hunter Brown type of young, controllable starter would intrigue me. Regardless, I'm not terribly worried about Julien's August mini-slump. He's still swinging at strikes and taking balls (even though he is getting the rookie treatment and umps frequently screw him). He's had some hard hit balls go right at fielders. So long as he is healthy, I think he will be a solid hitter.
  5. Road trip
    Willie Norwood, Rob Wilfong, Hosken Powell, and especially Bombo Rivera, c.a. 1978 😁 The Twins management was in full rebuild and advertised this crew as the next great hope! None of them really developed, but the names.... just great names! (I didn't include Butch Wynegar, as he actually was a pretty good player, and already was a grizzled 3rd year veteran of 22 years old when the rest of this crew got started) Little wonder Rod Carew was ready to leave town...
  6. Road trip
    Indeed. The same could be said for Floro back in the day. He had a nice stretch with the Dodgers on their World Series runs a few years ago, getting meaningful innings on teams that had a wealth of quality pitching options. Time moves on. Could be the problem is a mental block (likely for Lopez, given his family tragedy), or that the arm is simply cooked (possibly Floro's story). It's unlikely that either will ever be a high-leverage reliever again, and even "back of the bullpen" may be too much to expect. I suspect both players will get a chance to be on someone's roster next spring though.
  7. Road trip
    Well, I like it less now...
  8. Road trip
    I like it... let's find out if he's part of the plan going forward.
  9. Road trip
    Vital? That's too strong a word. The early 70's Oakland A's provide a counter example. The late 70's Yankees, same thing. Horrible clubhouse drama with both squads, along with World Series victories. Teams and individuals can hate each other and still win a lot of games, especially in baseball: a team sport that is based on the individual match ups that occur with every pitch. A cohesive team/clubhouse probably helps a little. Some players may focus better when there is minimal drama, and perhaps Kepler is one of those guys. However if teams can't hit, pitch, catch, and run they will lose no matter how much they like each other. Josh Donaldson was perceived to be a very valuable player when he was playing well. He was so greatly valued that he won an MVP vote in 2015. He became a "problem player" when he stopped hitting a couple of years ago due to age and injuries. There are many great players that you might not want as a neighbor or friend, but they could really play ball, and they helped their teams win titles.
  10. Road trip
    I'd like to see him back. I have far more confidence in Maeda (old/sometimes injured/but usually effective) than I do in Paddack (young/historically marginal starter/recovering from 2nd TJ surgery). The team has a chance to be quite good next year, so keep investing in pitching. We'll need some depth.
  11. Road trip
    If I'm feeling super cautiously optimistic, I'll note that Buxton had knee surgery last September. Recovery varies but always takes time, even from arthroscopic surgery. It is plausible that his knee was still healing in April. And May. And June. The PLAN, good or bad, maybe is justifiable, even if it failed. After a few months of DH-ing, in unfortunately typical Buxton fashion, a hamstring injury take him out. But this is totally unrelated to his knee injury. And it takes him off his feet for awhile. And his gimpy knee gets several weeks off to heal further. Maybe, just maybe, it feels better now. (Knee pain sucks and endures / personal experience) Add in the fact that he realistically has about 20 or 25 possible games left in the regular season, plus possible playoffs.... Well, if you are Byron Buxton, why not give the outfield a shot now? Worst case scenario (medium probability) is you hurt yourself again. Best case? You are able to play 20ish games in September, plus some playoff games. It's the only likely way to bring substantial value to your team (DH ain't helping much). Nothing risked, nothing gained. Give it a shot and hope for the best..
  12. Road trip
    Often signing big ticket free agents is a recipe for disaster. But Corey Seager.... wowser, looks like the Rangers hit the jackpot with that signing. I knew he was having a good year, but that's even more than they could have hoped for.
  13. Road trip
    Get Wallner some body armour. This seems to be a trend.
  14. Road trip
    Add in the fact that Maeda's contract is an absolute bargain at 3.1 Million a year. If the Twins were foolish enough to release him he wouldn't come close to clearing the waiver wire.
  15. Road trip
    Twins have acquired a few good veteran hitters over the years (Cruz, Thome, Shannon Stewart, Willingham, etc), but for the most part competitive small and mid-market teams have to grow their own. The Dodgers/Yanks/Red Sox can sign whomever they want, and dump them just as quickly if they don't work out. Most teams don't have the deep pockets to do that. Of the many veteran signings the Twins have made over the years, many would be chalked up as expensive mistakes (Donaldson, Simons, etc), or minor cheap victories (Solano being a good example of a pleasant surprise, as little was expected). I think this is why Twins fans, esp on this site, are so focused on all the shiny new prospects in the minors. We know that a certain percentage of them need to succeed.
  16. Road trip
    Wallner's July, which you seem to think is bad, is an .819 OPS. That's quite good in 2023. An OPS+ of 123. The only Twins getting regular ABs with higher OPS for the year are Julien and Jeffers. Too many strikeouts? Yes, I also wish the number was lower, but he isn't striking out at the same rate as Gallo. Do I know Wallner's a long term answer? Heck no. He could be the next Oswaldo Arcia, Marty Cordova, Bobby Kielty, or any other number of young Twins who looked good for a year, but then faltered. Wallner's thoroughly scouted now, and he'll have to make adjustments. In a year or two we will know if he can. For now, give him a chance, as he's the best option the Twins have for 2023. I'm not full bandwagon, but I do know at this point I like Wallner's chances at the plate more than Gallo's (or Larnach's, or other LF alternatives they could roster).
  17. Road trip
    Correct, if you ignore May, June, and July, Gallo and Wallner are equally productive 🙄 For the year, Wallner's OPS is .858. Gallo's is .751. While we don't know that Wallner can maintain .858 for the duration of the year, Gallo's track record is very well established. It's hard to believe, but Gallo was even worse last year!
  18. Road trip
    Anecdotally and by the eye test I would have agreed. The advanced defensive stats don't though. BRef's advanced defensive stats LOVE Solano at 1st base (17 runs saved per year). They show Gallo as merely above average (1 run saved per year). Gallo has a better reach, and a little more experience at the position. However Solano has the range of a middle infielder and has more lateral quickness. Due his decades of playing infield he might read the ball off the bat a bit better than Gallo, who was mostly an outfielder in his younger days. Solano can't reach the occasional too-high throw, but boy he can really dig out the low ones.
  19. Road trip
    Yes on Funderburk. Now. The pen could use another lefty (or for that matter, any reliable arm). Easy to find room for him, and he sports an excellent SO9 of 13.5!
  20. Road trip
    Julien at 2B while Polanco DH's is... counterintuitive. But hey, I'm just happy to watch Julien hit.
  21. Road trip
    I'm skeptical. Solano has been more than adequate there defensively, and has hit well enough this year. He's the right-handed part of the platoon, and arguably should also play more against right handed pitchers as he hits righties as well as lefties. At the moment I'm more concerned about who backs up/platoons with Taylor in centerfield with Castro on the DL. While excellent defensively and adequate against lefties (I guess), Taylor is a glaring weak spot against right handed pitchers.
  22. Road trip
    While that was the standard, the format has changed. The first series vs a wildcard opponent will now be "best of 3" series. There is no reason to save or plan for a 4th starter. All hands on deck... The Twins are the very rare team where the 4th and 5th starters (Ober and Ryan, at the moment) are significantly better pitchers than the majority of the bullpen options (arguably everyone other than Duran). It would be managerial malpractice not to have contingency plans to utilize them in some kind of role during the wildcard round. Yes, they aren't accustomed to coming into a game with men on base. However if given sufficient time to warm up they should be perfectly capable of entering the game to start the 6th or 7th inning.
  23. Road trip
    Neither. The 5th and possibly the 4th starters (Ryan + Ober? Maeda?) moves to the pen for the postseason. I know it would be a new role, but any of the bunch would be better.
  24. Road trip
    I guess, but if you ignore the homers, Schwarber has been pretty awful. He leads the league in strikeouts (yes, far more than even Gallo). His OPS is a hair higher than Gallo's. Schwarber's a defensive disaster in LF where he usually plays... so much so that he currently has an accumulated WAR of -.8 If I was forced to choose one.... nah, I'd rather not.
  25. Road trip
    I certainly don't dispute that Correa is have a disappointing year, but I'm not certain the comparisons over time are completely fair. We are in an offensively depressed era, so comparing this year's stats to stat lines from a half decade ago (or more) makes Correa's stat line look worse than it really is. Correa's 2023 stat line is good for an OPS+ of 92. Not good, but not a disaster for a shortstop. Simmons for his career had an OPS+ of 87. As a Twin it was 57. That's a really big difference. Correa currently ranks 11th among all shortstops in OPS. Again, not great, and upper middle of the pack is not what the Twins paid for, but not terrible (for disasters, see Tim Anderson, Javier Baez, Willy Adames, even Trea Turner). I'm still hoping for more from Correa, while being disappointed with this year's performance. He's still a better than average SS, and is young enough that this year might be a blip rather than a permanent decline. I wish I had the same level of hope for Buxton...
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