Road trip
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Everything posted by Road trip
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Is King Kenta a 2024 Contributor?
Road trip replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd like to see him back. I have far more confidence in Maeda (old/sometimes injured/but usually effective) than I do in Paddack (young/historically marginal starter/recovering from 2nd TJ surgery). The team has a chance to be quite good next year, so keep investing in pitching. We'll need some depth.- 39 replies
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- kenta maeda
- pablo lopez
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How Did the Buxton Process Go So Horribly Wrong?
Road trip replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If I'm feeling super cautiously optimistic, I'll note that Buxton had knee surgery last September. Recovery varies but always takes time, even from arthroscopic surgery. It is plausible that his knee was still healing in April. And May. And June. The PLAN, good or bad, maybe is justifiable, even if it failed. After a few months of DH-ing, in unfortunately typical Buxton fashion, a hamstring injury take him out. But this is totally unrelated to his knee injury. And it takes him off his feet for awhile. And his gimpy knee gets several weeks off to heal further. Maybe, just maybe, it feels better now. (Knee pain sucks and endures / personal experience) Add in the fact that he realistically has about 20 or 25 possible games left in the regular season, plus possible playoffs.... Well, if you are Byron Buxton, why not give the outfield a shot now? Worst case scenario (medium probability) is you hurt yourself again. Best case? You are able to play 20ish games in September, plus some playoff games. It's the only likely way to bring substantial value to your team (DH ain't helping much). Nothing risked, nothing gained. Give it a shot and hope for the best.. -
Twins have acquired a few good veteran hitters over the years (Cruz, Thome, Shannon Stewart, Willingham, etc), but for the most part competitive small and mid-market teams have to grow their own. The Dodgers/Yanks/Red Sox can sign whomever they want, and dump them just as quickly if they don't work out. Most teams don't have the deep pockets to do that. Of the many veteran signings the Twins have made over the years, many would be chalked up as expensive mistakes (Donaldson, Simons, etc), or minor cheap victories (Solano being a good example of a pleasant surprise, as little was expected). I think this is why Twins fans, esp on this site, are so focused on all the shiny new prospects in the minors. We know that a certain percentage of them need to succeed.
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The Top 5 Twins September Call-Up Options
Road trip replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wallner's July, which you seem to think is bad, is an .819 OPS. That's quite good in 2023. An OPS+ of 123. The only Twins getting regular ABs with higher OPS for the year are Julien and Jeffers. Too many strikeouts? Yes, I also wish the number was lower, but he isn't striking out at the same rate as Gallo. Do I know Wallner's a long term answer? Heck no. He could be the next Oswaldo Arcia, Marty Cordova, Bobby Kielty, or any other number of young Twins who looked good for a year, but then faltered. Wallner's thoroughly scouted now, and he'll have to make adjustments. In a year or two we will know if he can. For now, give him a chance, as he's the best option the Twins have for 2023. I'm not full bandwagon, but I do know at this point I like Wallner's chances at the plate more than Gallo's (or Larnach's, or other LF alternatives they could roster).- 61 replies
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- kody funderburk
- austin martin
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The Top 5 Twins September Call-Up Options
Road trip replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Correct, if you ignore May, June, and July, Gallo and Wallner are equally productive 🙄 For the year, Wallner's OPS is .858. Gallo's is .751. While we don't know that Wallner can maintain .858 for the duration of the year, Gallo's track record is very well established. It's hard to believe, but Gallo was even worse last year!- 61 replies
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- kody funderburk
- austin martin
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Anecdotally and by the eye test I would have agreed. The advanced defensive stats don't though. BRef's advanced defensive stats LOVE Solano at 1st base (17 runs saved per year). They show Gallo as merely above average (1 run saved per year). Gallo has a better reach, and a little more experience at the position. However Solano has the range of a middle infielder and has more lateral quickness. Due his decades of playing infield he might read the ball off the bat a bit better than Gallo, who was mostly an outfielder in his younger days. Solano can't reach the occasional too-high throw, but boy he can really dig out the low ones.
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Yes on Funderburk. Now. The pen could use another lefty (or for that matter, any reliable arm). Easy to find room for him, and he sports an excellent SO9 of 13.5!
- 48 replies
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- austin martin
- brooks lee
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Game Thread: Twins (Maeda) v Tigers (Olson), 8/16/23 @ 12:10 CT
Road trip replied to wsnydes's topic in Archived Game Threads
Julien at 2B while Polanco DH's is... counterintuitive. But hey, I'm just happy to watch Julien hit. -
I'm skeptical. Solano has been more than adequate there defensively, and has hit well enough this year. He's the right-handed part of the platoon, and arguably should also play more against right handed pitchers as he hits righties as well as lefties. At the moment I'm more concerned about who backs up/platoons with Taylor in centerfield with Castro on the DL. While excellent defensively and adequate against lefties (I guess), Taylor is a glaring weak spot against right handed pitchers.
- 93 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- joey gallo
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While that was the standard, the format has changed. The first series vs a wildcard opponent will now be "best of 3" series. There is no reason to save or plan for a 4th starter. All hands on deck... The Twins are the very rare team where the 4th and 5th starters (Ober and Ryan, at the moment) are significantly better pitchers than the majority of the bullpen options (arguably everyone other than Duran). It would be managerial malpractice not to have contingency plans to utilize them in some kind of role during the wildcard round. Yes, they aren't accustomed to coming into a game with men on base. However if given sufficient time to warm up they should be perfectly capable of entering the game to start the 6th or 7th inning.
- 28 replies
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- kenta maeda
- louis varland
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Neither. The 5th and possibly the 4th starters (Ryan + Ober? Maeda?) moves to the pen for the postseason. I know it would be a new role, but any of the bunch would be better.
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I guess, but if you ignore the homers, Schwarber has been pretty awful. He leads the league in strikeouts (yes, far more than even Gallo). His OPS is a hair higher than Gallo's. Schwarber's a defensive disaster in LF where he usually plays... so much so that he currently has an accumulated WAR of -.8 If I was forced to choose one.... nah, I'd rather not.
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I certainly don't dispute that Correa is have a disappointing year, but I'm not certain the comparisons over time are completely fair. We are in an offensively depressed era, so comparing this year's stats to stat lines from a half decade ago (or more) makes Correa's stat line look worse than it really is. Correa's 2023 stat line is good for an OPS+ of 92. Not good, but not a disaster for a shortstop. Simmons for his career had an OPS+ of 87. As a Twin it was 57. That's a really big difference. Correa currently ranks 11th among all shortstops in OPS. Again, not great, and upper middle of the pack is not what the Twins paid for, but not terrible (for disasters, see Tim Anderson, Javier Baez, Willy Adames, even Trea Turner). I'm still hoping for more from Correa, while being disappointed with this year's performance. He's still a better than average SS, and is young enough that this year might be a blip rather than a permanent decline. I wish I had the same level of hope for Buxton...
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No real disagreement. He's a 6th starter, but that still has some value. I can't identify a clearly better alternative waiting in AAA. Ryan rather desperately needed a reset/rest. There are innings to eat in August and September. If the Twins can find a way to win a few of his starts, and they've already won one, it's all good. Now if Keuchel makes an appearance in a playoff game... then we have a problem.
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Agreed, so long as he doesn't fall apart over the next two months. If Kepler finishes somewhere around his current OPS+ of 108, he would likely get around 12 - 15 million as a free agent on a one year, and likely could find a 3 year offer somewhere. He's still a good fielder, and the list of potential free agent outfielders is rather slim. He's a bargain at 10M. I think we all look at his average/power numbers and think, "this is all we get from a corner outfield spot?" Truth is, his production is above average. Pitchers are still dominating the game. We've got to forget about the video game numbers that hitters put up a few years ago.
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Dissecting Dallas Keuchel
Road trip replied to NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Keuchel is unlikely to be very good for the duration of this year. Varland is the alternative 6th starter, and he is also unlikely to be very good (at the MLB level) for the duration of this year. As noted by others above, perhaps a half dozen starts will be needed from the 6th starter. I'm ok rolling with Keuchel, even if I don't expect much. He will likely have some success like yesterday, as well as some games where he gets lit up. The same would be true with Varland, but I might trust him even less for the duration of 2023. His last 3 June starts with the Twins were pretty brutal. Now, I'll be very annoyed if Keuchel turns this into a MLB contract for 2024 (unless he is unexpectedly awesome). For '24 I'd much rather give Varland a chance. But for this year, in the few starts remaining, I'm ok with the path chosen. -
Rumor: MLBTR Twins Rumor Roundup
Road trip replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm with you. I think it's unlikely that Gray retires, but not impossible. He's already unimaginably wealthy by an average person's standards. 62 million in major league salaries according to Baseball Reference, plus whatever he made in bonus money as a first round draft pick. His future grandchildren are already set for life, barring some really bad spending habits. Gray will be 34 next year. He wouldn't be the first ballplayer to retire when he was still wanted. Buster Posey would be one recent example of a player who retired when he clearly was still productive. -
Doing nothing is not an option. Somebody goes.... today... by 6:45. Barring a setback Polanco is scheduled to be activated prior to tonight's game. Options: 1. Return Wallner or Julien to AAA. Sending down either is absurd, as they are the two hottest hitters on the roster. There are no other optionable position players. 2. Trade (or DFA) somebody 3. (Theoretically) a DL stint for someone. It won't be Buxton, who just returned from leave. I suppose it could be Kirilloff if his shoulder is worse than originally thought. Barring some large deal it seems logical to try to get something, anything, for Joey Gallo. The front office has known this day was coming for awhile. Hence, the "Hey, look! Gallo can still play centerfield" advertisements in recent lineups.
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- sonny gray
- joey gallo
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Yeah, Kaat and Tiant. Just a hair before my time of following the Twins, but wow, talk about epic bad decisions to save paltry sums of money! As much as we may complain about current ownership, the Pohlad family is much better than Griffith!
- 47 comments
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Should the Twins Shop a Young Corner Bat?
Road trip replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With another nice game yesterday Wallner now has .8 BWAR in only 39 at bats. That's more than Gallo has accumulated in the last two years combined! Maybe rather than considering Wallner a trade candidate the Twins should just give him all of Gallo's playing time..- 54 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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The Carew trade was bad, but the Twins were somewhat stuck. Carew wanted out, as Griffith was dismantling the team and refused to pay anyone in the early free agency era (see Hisle, Bostock, etc). Of course, under these circumstances the Twins were going to be terrible anyway. Had they not traded him Carew would almost certainly have left as a free agent. It hurt emotionally to lose Carew, but the late Griffith/Met Stadium era was going to be hopeless regardless simply due to the owner's refusal to recognize the reality of rising player salaries in the new free agent era. Now, Tom Brunansky for Tommy Herr... oof, it still hurts decades later. That trade was totally unnecessary and self-inflicted. The Twins were coming off of their 1987 title, and *thought* that Tommy Herr would thrive on the MetroDome's turf. They made the trade in late April, and it disrupted team chemistry very badly. Turned out that Tommy Herr HATED leaving St Louis (where he was a fan favorite) to play in Minnesota, and his performance reflected that. Bruno had also been a fan favorite at Minnesota, and his leadership, bat, and glove was sorely missed. The Twins sort of seemed to be in a collective funk all year, in part because Herr was brought in to replace the popular (but offensively subpar) Steve Lombardozzi. They finished a very distant 2nd place. Herr was essentially done as a productive player (note: don't trade a 27 year old outfielder entering his prime for a 33 year old middle infielder). The Twins flipped Herr the next spring for an even more past-his-prime Shane Rawley and went into full tailspin mode in '89. Rawley went 5-12 with an awful ERA and retired following the season. I'm sure from a perspective of lost WAR there were worse trades, but the '88 Twins were potentially primed for another playoff run. This trade derailed them.
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Gallo's at .5 WAR, that's enough to show he has been bad, for those who prefer advanced stats. For those that like traditional stats he is nearly 50 pts below Sano's career batting average, and many on here though that Sano struck out too much! I've moved past the point of worrying whether Gallo helps the Twins win or not. I just know as a fan I am sick of watching Gallo take strikes down the middle every single at bat. I would rather see any other Twin at the plate with a runner on 3rd base and less than two outs... and that may include the pitchers.

