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Nine of twelve

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Everything posted by Nine of twelve

  1. Nine of twelve
    Of course. But we don't know ahead of time what the actual odds are because they can't be accurately computed, so we approximate using 50/50.
  2. Nine of twelve
    I'm a bit taken aback by the almost complete disregard for Toronto in this discussion. They have to win 3 games to be guaranteed a wild card berth. Granted, they are in the lead for the two remaining berths at the moment but it's still very conceivable for them to wind up on the outside looking in.
  3. Nine of twelve
    Good thing you weren't born 50 years earlier. The first World Series game played at night was in 1971.
  4. Nine of twelve
    We know you meant Tampa Bay, not Toronto.
  5. Nine of twelve
    Stringer Bell is correct. It would be Seattle. Regardless of how they wind up with 89 wins their record in head-to-head-to-head competition would be 14-12. One of the other two teams would finish at 13-13 and the third team at 12-14. A three-way tie with two teams at 14-12 and the third at 11-15 is not possible. To expand on this: if the 3-way tie at 89 happens and Toronto finishes with 89 or fewer wins Houston would be the #5 seed and Texas the #6. If Toronto finishes with 90 or more wins they would be the #5 seed and Houston would be #6.
  6. Nine of twelve
    After a few incorrect and/or incomplete posts I think I finally have it. The Twins must finish with 89 wins. Texas must finish with 89 wins. Houston or Seattle must finish with 89 wins but not both.
  7. Nine of twelve
    First, I edited my earlier post. I think it's simpler now. Second, I edited your post. A 4-way tie won't work for the Twins. The first tie to be broken is the 3-way tie for the West division championship, and if there is a 3-way tie Seattle holds that tiebreaker. The #2 seed would then go to Seattle because they hold the tiebreaker over the Twins.
  8. Nine of twelve
    Erased.
  9. Nine of twelve
    The Twins must win the rest of their games to get the #2 seed. If Seattle and Texas both win tonight the Twins can not get the #2 seed.
  10. Nine of twelve
    Expansion contenders: Tennessee, North Carolina, Montreal, Mexico City. Mexico City is the largest city in North America but definitely a dark horse. What would players think about living there? Another dark horse: Texas. The population is increasing there faster than any other state but after Houston and DFW it's hard to figure where a third team would go. I wonder if fans outside those two places would shift their allegiance from whichever team they currently follow, and I expect the Astros and Rangers would not want any encroachment. Expansion pretenders: Portland, Salt Lake City. Neither place has enough people or money to make MLB succeed.
  11. Nine of twelve
    Hicks is not a good comparison. Think back to what the Twins' situation was in 2013 when he first came up. The Twins had traded Denard Span and Ben Revere not to clear space for Hicks but because they got offers that were widely viewed as overpayments. They knew Hicks probably wasn't ready but they saw the athletic skills and chose to roll the dice with him, partly because they weren't expecting to contend anyway. Sometimes things work out well and sometimes they don't.
  12. Nine of twelve
    Actually, you can, if the pitch is not held by the catcher. A runner can score on a wild pitch, a passed ball, or an error.
  13. Nine of twelve
    My wife and I celebrate our 32nd Anniversary this week. (You can do the math.) Our families and attendants waved homer hankies at the conclusion of our wedding. We were on our honeymoon during the ALCS but we attended all four home games of that year's World Series. It was a pretty special time, I must say.
  14. Nine of twelve
    It seems there is always at least one team with this sort of split. The Tigers are the same way: 32-43 at home, 41-40 on the road. I think what happens is that by coincidence a team happens to get hot at the same time that they are making a road trip.
  15. Nine of twelve
    The contrast between "best" and "most valuable" is interesting. A great case study is Steve Carlton in 1972. He had one of the best seasons a starting pitcher has ever had but he pitched for a Phillies team that finished in last place by a wide margin. So as great as he was that year he was not valuable. At all. Sonny Gray's situation is different. Even though the Twins lost an inordinate number of games he started his consistency was a significant contribution to the team's success, and from what I understand the intangibles of having him on the roster were also an asset. I wouldn't say he's the clear-cut team MVP but neither is anyone else on the roster. I certainly think he's a legitimate choice.
  16. Nine of twelve
    In the olden days (before 1995) having two top-flight starters could get you a World Series win. (The 1987 Twins are exhibit A.) Those days are gone. In today's era having two top-flight starters is obviously good but that's no longer enough. To get 11 or 13 wins a team needs at least 3 and probably 4 starters capable of holding down the other team. That's why it doesn't mean much to compare the rotation on a 2023 team to the rotation on a team from the distant past. I know very little about starting pitching depth on the other postseason-bound teams but I would hazard a guess that we are as well-situated as anyone.
  17. Nine of twelve
    I suppose one could say this is good news, but I expect that it won't matter. There are 11 games remaining that involve these teams. Each game has to finish the right way for a triple 88. Assuming each game has a 50-50 chance of finishing the right way that means that as of now, the odds of a 5-1 finish giving the Twins a #2 seed are 1 in 2,048.
  18. Nine of twelve
    I think you must have meant Larry (the Axe) Hennig.
  19. Nine of twelve
    You are correct! I hadn't realized it but the Yankees are indeed eliminated from the postseason. Oh happy day!
  20. Nine of twelve
    Maeda has pitched fairly extensively in relief and knows how to handle it. I don't recall Ryan or Ober pitching out of the bullpen; if they have it's been very few times. Ober also seems like the type of pitcher who takes longer to get ready to pitch, although I admit that's more just an impression on my part than anything. Also, Maeda having the ability to pitch anywhere from one inning to five is a valuable asset. I think we get the most out of the three pitchers in question if Maeda is the bullpen guy. That said, if there's a third game in the first round and he hasn't pitched in either of the first two games I can understand arguments in favor of starting him.
  21. Nine of twelve
    Maeda has pitched fairly extensively in relief and knows how to handle it. I don't recall Ryan or Ober pitching out of the bullpen; if they have it's been very few times. Ober also seems like the type of pitcher who takes longer to get ready to pitch, although I admit that's more just an impression on my part than anything. Also, Maeda having the ability to pitch anywhere from one inning to five is a valuable asset. I think we get the most out of the three pitchers in question if Maeda is the bullpen guy. That said, if there's a third game in the first round and he hasn't pitched in either of the first two games I can understand arguments in favor of starting him.
  22. Nine of twelve
    As of right now Toronto is more likely than Texas. If Toronto hits a snag this week they could easily be our first round opponent.
  23. Nine of twelve
    The Twins can get the #2 seed by going 5-1 if: Houston sweeps Seattle. Seattle wins 3 of 4 over Texas. Arizona sweeps Houston. The Angels sweep Texas.
  24. Nine of twelve
    Let me start off by saying that while there are obviously no guarantees regarding the length of the Twins' postseason run, the team has to be prudent and plan for the possibility of 22 games. Only three starters are needed for round one of the postseason. A fourth starter will need to be rostered for the second round but may not be needed until the third round. Barring injury it's unlikely that a fifth starter would be needed, and if a five-man rotation were to be used it would probably not be implemented until late in the third round at the soonest. So one of Maeda, Ober, and Ryan needs to be designated as a reliever for the first two rounds and probably beyond. Of those three I think Maeda is unquestionably the best suited to pitch in relief. I also think the team would get the most value from those three by having Maeda available to pitch in relief, especially in the first two rounds. That makes Ryan the third starter and Ober the fourth, with Maeda a reliever (and possible fifth starter late in the postseason). I think it's also worth pointing out that we are fortunate to have five pitchers who appear capable of doing well as starters in the postseason, with Varland and Keuchel as emergency fallback options.
  25. Nine of twelve
    He's always there in case of emergency. But it would have to be that for him to play in the majors in 2023. And even then it's probably not worth doing.
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