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Nine of twelve

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Everything posted by Nine of twelve

  1. Nine of twelve
    In fairness contact with balls in the zone also results in an out most of the time. But the odds are worse on contact with bad pitches.
  2. Nine of twelve
    I don't find that odd. It's expected. Unfortunately, human umpiring is inaccurate enough that it would be odd if there were not variations like this over the small sample size of 22 games.
  3. Nine of twelve
    Three comments. One, drafting in baseball is really hard. There have always been and there will always be star players who were chosen in the third round or lower. There have always been and there will always be players chosen in the top 5 who don't see a day in the major leagues. The goal is to do better than most other teams. Two, deadline trades are always going to involve an overpayment. If a team is doing really well and has one roster spot that can be improved upon then overpaying probably is worthwhile. But if a team is close to the bubble of making the postseason then it probably isn't. Three, the overall objective is to have a team capable of contending for the postseason every year. Try to make all decisions with that in mind.
  4. Nine of twelve
    I want to add this comment even though I have said it before on other threads. I have never heard a good argument in favor of continuing with human pitch calling in MLB.
  5. Nine of twelve
    It's not fair to use one system for one part of the schedule and another system for the rest of the schedule. Plenty of trials have been done already anyway. Just implement robo umps full time now.
  6. Nine of twelve
    There would be no long run needed to even out unfair calls with a robo ump system. Every call would be fair.
  7. Nine of twelve
    Here's how I would do a simple, unbiased, accurate trial. Set up electric eyes and cameras to view the edges of the strike zone. That would enable us to know with certainty whether a pitch moves through any part of the zone. (This could not be done during a game, of course.) Then compare that to the calls made on those pitches, whether by robo umps or by humans. (Professional umpires and any robo ump systems should all be tested.) This would enable us to determine the accuracy of the calls. I have not done a search of any kind to determine whether this has been done so obviously I don't have a citation for it. But I must believe that I am not the only one who has ever thought of doing this and I would be flabbergasted if this (or something very similar) has not been done. And I would be even more flabbergasted if it has been done and MLB has not been made aware of the results. Hence, I concur with minny505 that it's easy to believe that MLB is suppressing this data. If the data showed that robo umps were less accurate than humans that would be publicized. Edited to add: This is how all professional umpires could (and, IMHO, should) be evaluated for their ability to call pitches correctly.
  8. Nine of twelve
    I think most people understood my point but I apologize for not making it clear enough for you to understand. I wasn't trying to say the two issues are related. They are not. My point is that I originally didn't like the pitch clock rules but after seeing the positive effect they had on the game I changed my mind. Now I think the rule change was good. And I think the same thing will happen for many people who currently don't want robo umps.
  9. Nine of twelve
    The reason I favor robo umps has nothing to do with Twitter-based scorecards, which I think are indeed based on questionable assumptions. I favor them because they do a statistically significantly better job than humans at calling strikes according to the strike zone as specified in the official rules of the game. Before this season I felt the same way about the pitch clock and related rules, although I didn't think the changes would be subtle. I now feel that the impact of those rule changes has been overwhelmingly positive. When this change is implemented I'm confident that you will similarly admit you were wrong, and I'm confident about that in two ways: one, that the change will be overwhelmingly positive and, two, that you will be man enough to accept and embrace the overwhelming positivity of the change.
  10. Nine of twelve
    Both are important, and robo umps are better at both than humans. Moreover, humans will never experience an improvement in performance and robo umps will.
  11. Nine of twelve
    The still from the video shown above shows the ball left the thrower's hand before contact would have occurred between Lewis and the catcher. A fielder has the right to field the ball and since the throw was on its way to the catcher I doubt obstruction would have been called either on the field or upon review. Had Lewis initiated contact he might have been called for interference. So I think we simply accept the play as it was made by all involved, including the umpires.
  12. Nine of twelve
    This is regarding the question of whether Verlander starts on three days' rest. For the 2023 Verlander, maybe if Houston is down 2 games to 1, and not if Houston is up 2 games to 1. If we were discussing the 2011 Justin Verlander I would change those guesses to definitely and probably.
  13. Nine of twelve
    In a postseason series the objective of the visiting team during the first two games is to take home field advantage away from the opponent. Mission accomplished.
  14. Nine of twelve
    If I were manager Jeffers would catch games 1 and 2, as well as 4 and 5 if needed. He's had 2 days off going into game 1 so he can play 2 days in a row. Then 2 days off while Vazquez takes game 3. Back in the lineup for game 4, then a day off, then game 5. If it looks like he's getting tired Vazquez can take game 5.
  15. Nine of twelve
    I completely agree about the Berrios/Kikuchi decision. We don't know whether that cost them the game because the Jays didn't score any runs but geez. As I said in another thread I think analytics are important, and the "early hook" philosophy probably does work over the course of the regular season because it's a sample size of dozens of games. But the "here and now" of the situation is much more important in the postseason than during the regular season. I suppose if Berrios had not been dominating replacing him there may have made sense. Otherwise, not so much. And BTW don't place responsibility on anyone other than the manager. When it comes to on-field decisions he has veto power over anything the front office says.
  16. Nine of twelve
    This is for real: Google "dad shoes" and check out the first image. (It's what I wear, by the way.)
  17. Nine of twelve
    Flawed analogies. In the first analogy potential consequences weigh much more heavily on the decision. Baseball is not life and death, nor are there potential legal issues. In the second analogy, managers have more information than pure statistical probabilities. In blackjack that's not the case. Many people criticize Baldelli for relying too heavily on analytics and not taking other factors into account. Not having been privy to the decision making process I don't know the details, but it appears that this was a case where he did take other factors into account. Would it have been better if he had brought in Pagan? We'll never know, but the outcome of having anyone else pitch could not have been better than the outcome of having Thielbar pitch. For the other side of the coin we need look no further than the same game. Schneider went with the statistical probabilities on his decision to pull Berrios in the fourth inning in favor of Kikuchi and that did not succeed. Not putting words in your mouth, just asking a question: do you believe Schneider's decision was the correct one and Baldelli's was the incorrect one?
  18. Nine of twelve
    First, I didn't say what my opinion was. Please don't put words in my mouth. Second, if the move was successful it was by definition a good idea. This time.
  19. Nine of twelve
    I guess this is typical of any fan base. If a manager goes by the book and the decision doesn't work he gets criticized. If a manager goes against the book and the decision doesn't work he gets criticized. If a manager goes by the book and the decision works he gets criticized. If a manager goes against the book and the decision works he gets criticized. It's a lose-lose-lose-lose proposition even after a win.
  20. Nine of twelve
    This demonstrates that the "quick hook" phenomenon permeates MLB. It may not be the philosophy of every team but it's certainly not just the Twins or Baldelli. Dave Cash of the Rays got a lot of heat in a recent postseason for doing the exact same thing, making a relatively early pull of a starter who was pitching well. My opinion is that this is probably the correct philosophy over the course of a regular season, and that by doing things this way it will average out to be beneficial provided that a reliable bullpen is available. But in the postseason a manager has to have much more of a "here and now" viewpoint and go with what is working at that moment.
  21. Nine of twelve
    This could very well be, but no matter what the plan was or how it was agreed on Schneider was more than just a pawn. A manager has veto power. He could have left Berrios in there if he thought it was the way to go in that situation. I suppose the FO could have fired him for insubordination right after the game (or I suppose even during the game) but it's still ultimately the manager's call.
  22. Nine of twelve
    Yet both players brought in contributed to scoring the two runs. I think the moves proved to be correct this time.
  23. Nine of twelve
    Streaks can go longer than that.
  24. Nine of twelve
    We started a streak today. The streak is dead! Long live the streak!
  25. Nine of twelve
    Not an issue. It’s cloudy with no shadows.
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