Flawed analogies. In the first analogy potential consequences weigh much more heavily on the decision. Baseball is not life and death, nor are there potential legal issues. In the second analogy, managers have more information than pure statistical probabilities. In blackjack that's not the case.
Many people criticize Baldelli for relying too heavily on analytics and not taking other factors into account. Not having been privy to the decision making process I don't know the details, but it appears that this was a case where he did take other factors into account. Would it have been better if he had brought in Pagan? We'll never know, but the outcome of having anyone else pitch could not have been better than the outcome of having Thielbar pitch. For the other side of the coin we need look no further than the same game. Schneider went with the statistical probabilities on his decision to pull Berrios in the fourth inning in favor of Kikuchi and that did not succeed. Not putting words in your mouth, just asking a question: do you believe Schneider's decision was the correct one and Baldelli's was the incorrect one?