bean5302

The MLBPA is vehemently opposed to cap to the point of single minded focus. Even broaching the topic would take a lengthy strike. Aside from that, I don't think the Twins are at a major competitive disadvantage. MLB continues to be the most competitive sport among the big 4, all without a salary cap. Salary caps just make teams with good and bad leadership more extreme in the success/failure, IMHO.

Jeffers is a 2 WAR catcher as of recently, and any extension would be for his age 30+ seasons. I think the Twins would be wise to pursue a short extension with him, but I think it remains open to debate on whether or not Jeffers would want to sign one with Minnesota given the disarray of things and how close he is to free agency. I certainly wouldn't go more than 2 years on an extension (which would lock him up for 3 years including the upcoming season). I'm not sure why so many fans are convinced Jeffers is a top hitting catcher, but his xwOBA is fairly steady at about .315 which would put him well outside that description. 2023 was a mirage, and his raw power looks to be declining a little to just above average. He's a solid need for the Twins since they've got nothing to replace him.

We could just take a defensively limited player with no bat and put them at SS. They need to be a really hyped prospect to be accepted by the fan base, though. Also helps if their dad is a coach, I hear.

Comparing the lineups, pretty much identical in age. 2023 Player 2026 Player 2023 Age 2026 Age Position Ryan Jeffers Same 26 29 C Donovan Solano Kody Clemens 35 30 1B Edouard Julien Luke Keaschall 24 23 2B Carlos Correa Brooks Lee 28 25 SS Royce Lewis Same 24 27 3B Joey Gallo Austin Martin 29 27 LF Michael A. Taylor Byron Buxton 32 32 CF Max Kepler Matt Wallner 30 28 RF Byron Buxton Trevor Larnach 29 29 DH Avg 29 28 Rotation more of the same 2023 Player 2026 Player 2023 Age 2026 Age Position Sonny Gray SWR 33 25 SP Pablo Lopez Same 27 30 SP Joe Ryan Same 27 30 SP Bailey Ober Same 27 30 SP Kenta Maeda Taj Bradley 35 25 SP Avg 30 29 I'd imagine the frustration is with the quality of the "young" (not young) players.

Yep. 99% Canterino's career is already over. It was nice of the Twins to bring him back on a MiLB deal so his rehab can be handled within the sports team medical world. I have sincere doubts he'll ever throw a professional regular season pitch again.

Backup center fielder? Bleday makes Austin Martin look like a gold glove CF. If the Twins want a backup center fielder, they need it to come from Emma. Either via trade (my preference) or watching him flop miserably at the plate still pretending he'll be able to hit MLB pitching (not my preference).

2020 = a19 University of Alabama 4GS - National season canceled 2021 = a20 UCL tear, lost season, Tommy John 2022 = a21 UCL surgery recovery, throwing program/drafted 2023 = a22 confirmed the Tommy John surgery failed, UCL brace surgery 2024 = a23 mid-season return R -> A+ 2025 = a24 A+ -> AA -> AAA Prielipp had pretty much the worst possible timing on the UCL tear, and the surgery to repair it was seemingly botched so he had to have a followup surgery. He moved up aggressively last year, and I think the Twins handled him with kid gloves too much in 2024 by not sending him to the AFL to get some innings, but Prielipp pitched 82.2 innings last year reliably and durably. There's too much negativity around Prielipp, especially considering the lack of concern about a 120-130 inning full-season guy like SWR.

Raya doesn't have enough control to be effective at the MLB level with the stuff he has. I think he's a 6 pitch guy if I remember right. I think he's going to have to narrow down the offerings and get more consistent to have a shot. Preilipp is a universal top 100 prospect at this point. He'll have to demonstrate better control in his second full season after turning from UCL surgery. It'll be interesting to see how the Twins use him next season. Falvey is on record indicating he thinks Prielipp is a reliever while Zoll wants him as a starter.

Not sure about Larnach. He'd make $4.7MM in arbitration (projected by MLBTR) or $3.25MM by Spotrac's projection, but the Twins have been pretty reliable at avoiding arbitration for a substantially lower amount. I'd guess the Twins can sign Larnach for $2.5-3.0MM. That's absolute chump change for a league average bat with some emergency versatility. Larnach has great baseball instincts, he just doesn't have the physical tools to excel in the outfield. If anybody was a great candidate for a 1B tryout, it would have been him, but I haven't heard anything about him working out there. I'd rather keep him at a lower dollar amount.

Historically, Falvey overplays his hand and winds up hanging onto players he needed to trade until after report dates, then finds himself out of suitors. This relegates him to bargain bin shopping and he's unable to address the teams obvious needs as a result.

The Twins are right in the middle for revenue vs. salary in MLB. The 50% split is targeted as that's close to the break even point. From paying front office employees, faciliites, coaches, managers, marketing, giveaways, vendor management, etc, there are an enormous amount of costs associated with running a baseball team.

Hunter wouldn't get my nod for HoF 2yrs 5.0+ WAR 4yrs 4.0+ WAR 12yrs 3.0+ WAR Basically, he was a very good player (borderline All Star) consistently for a very long time. He had a couple peak years where he was lock for All Star caliber, but nothing really above that IMHO.

Falvey has failed miserably at developing. Positional WAR 2025 Terry Ryan 32% Derek Falvey 48% Non-Twins Draft 20% Pitching WAR 2025 Terry Ryan 9% Derek Falvey 34% Non-Twins Draft 57% As I recall, Terry Ryan and Bill Smith's guys were still providing the majority of "home grown" talent until the last year or two. Embarrassing.

Falvey has been a pretty lousy GM/President. The Pohlads gave him the assets he needed, and Falvey squandered them every time.

https://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/200111/16_khoom_twins/index.shtml Crump ruled the way he did because the Minnesota Twins were considered part of the community and this was more than just a typical tenant vs landlord dispute. If it was just a tenant/landlord issue, the Twins could have just bought out their lease and rolled out of town.

If commenters don't believe a player can put pressure on ownership, they've sure forgotten the history of this club. Radke pushed ownership HARD, and that was likely a major reason the Twins are still in "Minnesota" because I do not believe Judge Harry Seymour Crump would have ruled to block the Twins from moving if the attendance in 2001 had followed the trend in previous years, and without Radke being extended or the resulting investment into that 2001 team, I don't think think attendance would have rallied. Prior to Radke, Puckett rallied fans to put an immense amount of pressure on ownership. A player can't force an owner to do something, but they sure can make it uncomfortable to not make at least a legitimate effort. Falvey's a politician. No idea what the Twins' ownership has stated the maximum next season budget will be, but historically, the Pohlads have made that known before the end of the previous season. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a 2 part budget. Rebuild or Compete depending on what free agency looks like, but who knows with this team.

Ryan Jeffers is a solid 1.5-2.0ish WAR catcher. League average-ish bat, defensively below average. He's an average-ish starting catcher, but below the median. Rutschman is a big of an enigma at this point. He was a legitimate 4.0 WAR catcher, but the near RoY followed with back to back All Star game player has fallen off at the plate. It's hard to see what has caused that drop off in the batted ball metrics. Nothing looked crazy to me. The xwOBA was 25pts higher than actual last year, and history doesn't support there being a big difference. Rutschman carries a BTV surplus value for +25. Joe Ryan is more like +53. Trading Ryan for Rutschman would be insane. Lopez is +16 due to his substantial salary. Rutschman is similar to Emmanuel Rodriguez or Matt Wallner for all the guys who hate Wallner around here, haha. The changes Rutschman is an upgrade over Jeffers is probably high, IMHO, but there's little extra control for the Twins who are not exactly obvious playoff favorites in the next year or two. I don't really understand the move unless the Twins are confident locking up Rutschman long term.

Clemens had a much higher xwOBA than acutal. As far as all these free agent 1B out there, I'm not sure who they are. Guys like Ty France? Worse at the plate than Clemens was last year. France was last passable as a regular 1B (just barely) in 2023, and last good in 2022. Looking at Clemens, it seems like he was a bit unlucky. I don't think he's going to be a great hitter or anything, but just as good as we might expect from a dumpster-dive 1B is likely, imho. No of the fans here know what the Twins are going to do for a budget, but it seems awfully unlikely we're going to go get Alonso.

I think Buxton is going to have to show some enormous leadership this offseason (provided he's still here). It's on him to get these young guys back on board. Buck's been there. He's been told to hit a certain way, change his approach to methods which didn't feel good and didn't work, feeling undervalued by the front office, having his service time manipulated, potentially losing the appearance of being the face of the franchise to a new guy, fighting through endless injuries, watching the game evolve, etc. As an All Star and one of the most respected players in the game who has seen it all, he has the background and experience to get the young guys on board. I'm not sure he has the personality built for it because we don't see inside the locker room. But his biggest contribution to the team's success might well come off the field this year.

For me, BABIP is an awful lot like HR:FB rates. Very few pitchers can sustain HR:FB rates which are substantially better than league average, but there are some complexities like high pop-up rates. The vast majority of MLB hitters are following the hard contact, pull-hitter fly ball model. Very few Luis Arraez's or Austin Martin's looping soft liners into the middle of the outfield out there. More sprint speed (IFH), lower pop-ups, more line drives, harder hitting gets anomalys.

He has been pretty healthy, but his velo often tanks after 60ish pitches and late in the season, and he's not efficient because he doesn't have the stuff. If SWR tries to attack hitters in the zone, he gets destroyed so he needs to play on the edges. At 94mph, SWR can be effective, but SWR throwing 91-92 can't get guys out anymore. When he first came up in 2022-2023 at 88-91mph, he wasn't even effective in MiLB. In 2023 his boost up to 92-93 was effective at the MLB level, but as the scouting reports caught up, SWR needed that extra 1mph on top of that based on what I've seen. Unless SWR commits to improved conditioning, he's not going to be able to pitch more than 4 innings reliably. At that point... is he really a "starter" worth having in the rotation? He's going to cap out at 1.5-2.0 WAR. Not that much better in terms of value added than a multi-inning reliever. Durability means more than just injury history to me.

DRS doesn't like Royce Lewis while OAA does. Both are prone to pretty wild swings and neither is remotely accurate for a single year sample size. That said, I expect Williamson is going to be elite at 3B, and he could probably cover SS more than adequately. Great glove, plenty of speed/range, and at least a passable arm at SS. Williamson isn't going to be replaced by Royce Lewis. Seattle would have to move somebody else.

No player I've seen has made a bigger impact on my view of the team than Royce Lewis. What he was doing in 2023 was remarkable. It didn't matter what pitch was being thrown or where it was being placed. He was absolutely locked in. Through years of injuries, he kept his optimism and the kind of infectious charisma which could make him one of the greatest and most beloved players in the game. It's also pretty clear the front office, management and coaches on this team lost his buy in. The comments about the quick hooks, is that about him or just what he's seen? Wallner, Julien, Miranda, Martin, all had pretty short leashes, even if the leash was deserved from a fan perspective. Meanwhile, veteran players like Vazquez and Margot seeminly had infinite leashes despite being terrible. Lewis was told he was the SS, instead the Twins brought back Correa and moved Lewis off even backup SS duties in favor of Lee. Another short leash. Who is responsible for the players not believing the organization has their best interest? Oh, and make no mistake, if Lewis is openingly speaking about all these issues, there are another dozen players who feel exactly the same way but don't want to endure the backlash. Falvey has a long history of alienating his best young players. Is anybody surprised Lewis has followed the same path? In any case, Lewis is definitely at a crossroads. He needs to regain his mojo, refocus, and take accountability for his poor play. He's certainly not going to improve by blaming others, and results grant opinions value. If he doesn't trust the organization, ask for a trade or find the help he needs independently outside the organization. The raw power is still there, his fielding is improved, his heath is improved and he's got a full offseason to see if he can regain his explosiveness and speed. Next year will likely determine whether or not Lewis becomes a full fledged star or yet another in a long line of failed young can't-miss prospect tied to the Twins organization.

A lot will depend on what happens with the Twins' strategy on payroll and veteran rotation members along with options, IMHO. (no options) SWR might get more opportunity to prove he can go more than 60-80 pitches with Shelton. That will determine whether or not he belongs in the rotation AFAIC. I think he'll be best suited to the 'pen. (has options) Taj Bradley will be in the rotation someplace. (has options) Mick Abel is likely going to the bullpen until he can throw strikes if he makes the MLB roster. A reliever can get away with a little less command and some bigger velos and movement. (has options) Matthews will be in the rotation, I think. Has to prove his durability with the higher velo which makes him viable as a mid-rotation starter. (has options) Festa's TOS is a serious concern. The spin on his situation is positive, but the red flag is real for me. (has options) Andrew Morris. Doesn't have the stuff to be an MLB starter in my opinion. He's a reliever if he can make it in MLB. (has options) Kendry Rojas. Not a consideration for opening day 26 man roster, I don't think. (has options) Connor Prielipp. Good question. I think the Twins will make the call during Sprint Training for him. Is he ready for MLB? Does he have what it takes to go through the lineup TTO?

I'm wondering if the debate is now changing from Wallner and Larnach are the same player and worth the same value to whether or not Wallner is a guaranteed stud? A neutral source like BTV makes it very clear models don't support Wallner and Larnach being remotely comparable which is what I've been talking about. Wallner was +0.70 WPA until last year, but like fielding metrics, WPA can have wild swings so let's remove Wallners 2 significant seasons before last year and focus only on 2025. @ashbury may have dug up some numbers, but there are always going to be stats that support a narrative if you work hard enough to find them. I did point out the fact Wallner's production was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, but lets ignore that and focus only on high leverage. With RISP and for high leverage (all 30 plate appearances🙄 ) his production was lower, but his walk rate was highest and his K rate was lowest. When I'm going to use a stat like WPA, I want to know about sample size and why things happened the way they did. In Wallner's case, limited to last year only because the narrative isn't supported by his first 2 significant seasons. High leverage last year, Wallner had a .000 BABIP on 18 balls in play despite his hard hit rate being the highest of the 3 categories (low/med/high leverage). Do you think that's sustainable? That's where WPA comes from. SSS often luck fueled results in high leverage situations. Toss out five games last year, and Wallner's WPA isn't even negative. In those worst WPA games, Wallner never struck out more than one time in the game. Ground out (8/20), pop up (6/22), fly out (9/5), line out+foul-tip (6/14), strike out (9/13). 6 plate appearances fed the vast majority of Wallner's negative WPA last year.