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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I don't know about that. Houston's production at AA this year is better than Culpepper's was last year. Culpepper does not project as a plus hitter at the MLB level right now. He might be serviceable, maybe he'll exceed projections, but projection models look pretty similar for Houston and Culpepper at MLB.
  2. bean5302
    Dobnak is getting chase rates like his prime and he's in the ball park of where he needs to be with the ground ball rate so far this year in the minimal playing time we can review. The version of Randy Dobnak the Royals have seen is an adequate #5 rotation arm, but the stuff and exit velocities suggest it's just a matter of time. The Twins' lineup is looking awfully punch-less right now, though.
  3. bean5302
    Roden's results are terrible again this year, and his expected stuff isn't good, either. I'd like to see him get to 100 PA at least before he's relegated to MiLB roster filler and injury replacement depth, but I've almost seen enough, myself.
  4. bean5302
    You're laughing at the ridiculousness.... but Why is it any more of a stretch than Luke Keaschall in CF? Jackson has over 150 games in the outfield in MiLB including (a long time ago 9 games in CF). Jackson is as fast as Austin Martin and he has a strong arm. Under the Twins motto of "positional flexibility" I honestly don't see a big difference here. I too think that would be pretty crazy, but within Falzoll-land, not as much as I'd think, probably.
  5. bean5302
    If you're taking on a project and you're researching whatever it is. Does the project happen or start to happen before you do it? What if no trade gets made. Did a trade happen anyway on paper? Feels to me like you're just extra combative on this.
  6. bean5302
    Thanks for that. The source backing up the work which needs to be done is huge, and it was something I hadn't been able to find in my searches.
  7. bean5302
    It's a good article that just re-affirms that almost nothing happens until the actual deadline day. As much as fans might want to know what direction a team is heading, we're going to be in the dark until then, LOL.
  8. bean5302
    @Greggory Masterson I'm tired of hearing this when there is no source indicating Tinney's a poor defensive backstop. Tinney won the Gold Glove for best defensive catcher in college baseball. https://www.abca.org/ABCA/ABCA/Awards/Gold_Glove/2026.aspx https://www.burntorangenation.com/general/103255/carson-tinney-minnesota-twins-mlb-draft
  9. bean5302
    Hancock is a questionable playoff caliber starter. He's changed his slider and added a cutter this year which has paid dividends, but the scouting reports probably haven't fully caught up. He probably makes the Twins a little better at the back end of the rotation. Royce Lewis has like +8 surplus value (minimal.) Keaschall is probably like +30. They're going to be viewed dramatically different by teams. In any case, Hancock would not be my target. Moving the Twins from 1.8% to win the World Series to 1.9% doesn't make me interested. Gausman isn't going to cost a ton of prospect capital. He's at like +4MM surplus. He's the kind of starter the Twins should target.
  10. bean5302
    The AL West has won the World Series 3x in the past decade and send a team to the World Series 5x. The Astros, Rangers and Mariners are all consistently good teams. It's a solid division. You're right. No guarantees. Infinite mediocrity vs. going for it and a risk of falling on our face for a year or two. No risk, no reward.
  11. bean5302
    Brooks Lee is the same guy he was last year and the year before. Exactly the same player. Just like Javier Baez last year was wOBA .325 wRC+108 at the All Star Break, but with an xwOBA of .291, guess where he finished? (wOBA .293). Brooks Lee will finish this season well below average in production. He didn't change, he just had good luck. Brooks Lee swings soft, hits the ball soft, is aggressive chasing pitches outside the zone, and doesn't take walks. He's not Luis Arraez because Lee doesn't hit line drives and he strikes out 3x more often. This team is not close to a World Series competitive. It's not a .500 team. It's a sub-.500 team that only has a snowballs chance at making the playoffs because they play in the most embarrassing division in the history of professional sports.
  12. bean5302
    Because the Twins can't call 24 teams in MLB and tell them not to trade anybody to other teams in the AL Central. The Twins are not a playoff caliber competitive team right now. They're 9th in the AL in run differential and 20th in MLB. For every bad bounce you're going to argue for the Twins like 'Ryan Jeffers was out' (Twins went 25-22 with Jeffers out) or 'whatever player ate Taco Bell lettuce' there are two good bounces like Brooks Lee's expected production is .226/.285/.329 OPS .614 wRC+ 75ish, but through incredible luck, he's league average at OPS .729. You think that's going to continue? Ryan Kreidler has hit MLB average at SS. Josh Bell has been hitting like it's 2019 again lately. Those abberrations are not going to continue.
  13. bean5302
    Hahaha, good on Dobnak beating the odds and just continuing to show up in MLB. I like the Twins chances here, but you never know.
  14. bean5302
    85-77 does have a shot at winning the division if no team makes upgrades. The Twins are projected at 80-82 right now, though, so even if no team in the Central manages to show up for the rest of the year, the Twins are still 5 games out of a "shot" at making the playoffs.
  15. bean5302
    Whomever it takes. I don't care. Is my point not coming across? Is there something that I'm not making really crystal clear here? That I would literally trade EVERY. SINGLE. PROSPECT. IN. THE. TWINS. SYSTEM for a World Series Championship. Everybody. Every single prospect. Everyone. I hope that's more clear now. Everybody. Not one single prospect left on the entire farm system. Wichita, St. Paul, Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers forfeiting games because there's nobody left on the roster. I literally don't care. Maybe talking about eventual production from hypothetically good some day prospects is all you care about, and an infinite 81-81 record just missing the playoffs is your hope and dream. Looking in the stands at Target Field and comments on this forum and other sites, most people would like a World Series caliber team. Does it take Walker Jenkins to make this trade happen? No sweat off my brow. I don't care. Toss in Lackey to the guys headed out of the door? No problem. But the trades have to be combined with moves that make the Twins a World Series competitor. This year... and for however many years we need to justify the trading of assets. Either that or don't make any upgrades, sell off Buxton, Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Bell, and pretty much every single other free agent at the end of the year. I want a championship caliber team. Today or next year or the year after. I want the goal of my team to be aiming for a Championship. Not a .500 record with a reach goal of winning the ********* division in baseball followed by an immediate sweep out of the playoffs.
  16. bean5302
    Are you insinuating Jeffers is stupid and he has no Earthly idea a 3 year deal is the absolute minimum he'd possibly get in free agency? And if he's so stupid, the Twins should take advantage of that and sign him to a predatory contract?
  17. bean5302
    Twins were 25-22 without Jeffers last I checked.
  18. bean5302
    Right. High K rate, power but bad contact. Athletic but rock glove. Winokur is barely hanging on as a top 20 prospect right now.
  19. bean5302
    I'd trade every single one of our top 20 prospects for a World Series title. Targeting middling upgrades isn't worth the effort. Articles like this one, cautiously targeting a potential playoff appearance are the problem with this franchise. "Competitive" = one and done teams. I don't want to give anything up for an 81-81 record and a 50/50 shot at the playoffs. Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller should be the kind of targets the Twins are looking at.
  20. bean5302
    I don't know what a realistic scenario is. Mediocre ownership version 8,746? Twins standard operating procedure (little tweaks). Twins go from 28% chance to 31% chance? I don't care about realism. I care about "yes, this makes the Twins potential World Series competitor"
  21. bean5302
    Jeffers' is a rental. No QO option for any team that acquires him, and if the Twins keep him, extending a QO to him is highly questionable. If we look at the absolute ceiling of value, you'd have to figure $15MM surplus, and that's if the market is thirsty. Think a back end rotation arm who hasn't established themselves like Zebby or Morris at the deadline last year or a guy who has no real upside but is more established like SWR last year. Or a low minors prospect with a lot of ceiling like a Dasan Hill or a high minors prospect with a low ceiling and a high floor like a Gabriel Gonzalez. Jeffers' free agent value is probably in line with an absolute ceiling of Willson Contreras' 5yrs $88MM at this point, though Jeffers' production is about 2/3rds of Contreras over their careers up to the free agency point with Jeffers probably getting 3-4 at $15MM AAV. To get Jeffers to skip free agency, the Twins are probably going to need to overpay now so 4-5 years at $60-70MM is my guess. That's a lot to pay for a historical 2 WAR player.
  22. bean5302
    "I like Anderson" "You don't even know who Anderson is"
  23. bean5302
    All I'm saying is go big and make a real effort for the 2026 World Series push OR go big and make a real effort to 2027+. Don't half *** it.
  24. bean5302
    So we agree "anything can't happen" but also that "anything can happen" Got it.
  25. bean5302
    Then why am I seeing people advocate for minor roster changes because anything could happen?
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