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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Great to see the rebound from Balazovic. I'm excited to get Simon Wood-Richardson in on the action and see Joe Ryan. Lots of moves should open the door for some fringe guys I hope! Also, found an 8/2 article from the Pioneer Press I hadn't seen before. Talks about Lewis being joined by Chase Petty and other guys (like Noah Miller). https://www.twincities.com/2021/08/02/rehabbing-twins-prospect-royce-lewis-determined-to-return-and-ball-out-like-people-have-never-seen-before/ Lewis has been running in the pool already, but he expects to begin jogging on land next week. Near the end of the month, he’ll travel to Minnesota to visit team physician Christopher Camp, where he hopes to get the go-ahead to progress his hitting and lateral movement. He plans to stay in Fort Myers through October and then report to spring training a month early in early-to-mid January to help him get some more at-bats under his belt.
  2. bean5302
    Palacios' historical bat is pretty rough and he was legit awful for 2 years in Tampa. He does look really good this year, but he's also just turned 25 and he's in AA. If you project his bat into AAA and then MLB, there's a very real possibility his K% would jump quite a bit and his walk rate would plummet. Nick Gordon put up a 9.2% walk rate and 23.2% K rate in AA at age 22. I guess I'm just not sold that his new found power and plate discipline are a straight up product of talent rather than maturity. His defense has also slipped quite a bit in range factor this year, even accounting for the rock hands he showcased to start the season. It's tough to figure out what's going on for a casual fan like me who is relegated to stats as the scouting reports on Palacios have long since dried up. The lack of scouting on Palacios and his sudden emergence with what appears like a bat with some potential is intriguing and it's why I think the Twins need to find a spot for him at the MLB club as of 2 weeks ago. I haven't heard about Palacios bulking up, but it's one of the things a lot of scouts and fans wanted to see for a long time. It would explain a lot of the changes if he had packed on muscle, but I still believe he'll probably be heavily exposed at the plate against MLB pitching.
  3. bean5302
    Where's that dead horse???? I just found my spare baseball bat!
  4. bean5302
    Based on what I've read, would you consider Noah Miller to fall into a category of J.J. Hardy (with less arm since Hardy was throwing 91 off the mound in high school)? Hardy was never accused of having elite speed, but seemed to position himself well and he moved laterally really well, making tough plays look easy.
  5. bean5302
    People don't give Escobar enough credit for his fielding at shortstop in my opinion as the metrics suggest Escobar was certainly solid, even arguably above average at the position. His career MLB numbers are .979 (avg .975) and 4.16 RF/9 (4.10 avg). Escobar also owns a career +2.4 UZR/150 at shortstop at the MLB level. Taking a deeper dive into Palacios' numbers, which look pretty rough this year, they may have been driven by unexpectedly high error rates. Palacios hasn't committed an error in 21 games now and only 3 in the past 44 games so a fielding percentage more like .981 and his RF/9 would probably jump to somewhere around 3.80, but traditionally, his RF/9 has been much higher. Escobar was billed as a slick fielding, glove first kind of shortstop whereas Palacios is considered a bit borderline at the position.
  6. bean5302
    Keeping Pineda on the roster and pitching is totally defensible. The Twins already have 3 rookies in the rotation and 2 of the 3 are long shots to stick. They honestly don't have any MLB caliber starting pitcher candidates who aren't in the rotation right now. When Ryan is ready after his return from Tokyo, I expect he'll get a look. Thorpe will probably get a look if his velocity is there, Dobnak will probably be available at the end of the month. There aren't any legit options waiting for their shot right now.
  7. bean5302
    I was using this for reference. Average throw speed 85mph+. Reference to an above average arm at 91mph in the minors. Noah Miller has an average arm for a shortstop based on the reference I was using. Not mediocre in general. It's not apparent he has a cannon for a shortstop like Sano has or even as good as Gordon's arm which was in the 90s from the mound. http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/pro-scouting/scouting_arms.htm#:~:text=Scouts grade arms visually%3B in,around 85 mph and higher.
  8. bean5302
    Oh yeah, the way they had Garver play 1/2 to 1/3 of his games in the minors at utility positions and didn't give him a legitimate shot until they failed to protect Stuart Turner from the rule 5 draft, Jason Castro got injured, and their ill-advised free agent signing, Bobby Wilson, played like crap. The front office didn't defend Garver, instead allowing Molitor and Glen Perkins, among other pitchers, to take a nasty public swipes at the future starting catcher in 2017-2018. By the way, Garver made the call to a catcher framing coach, Tanner Swanson, not the Twins front office, and Garver spent the time working to improve himself. So Falvey does get credit for hiring the coach Garver reached out to for training, but it was Garver who was trying to seek an avenue of improvement. If it weren't for Garver's initiative and hard work while being publicly humiliated and largely ignored by this front office, he certainly wouldn't be starting for the Twins. This front office did just about everything they could to miss Garver's talent.
  9. bean5302
    I don't think using Dollars/WAR is a good metric for evaluating free agency signings without context. Recognizing the fit for the signing is, in my opinion, step 1 in regard to evaluating free agents. If the Twins had signed only Cruz across the entire period, their free agent record would be impeccable using the Dollars/WAR metric; however, the front office's performance would be universally regarded as horrendous. The Twins did not sign the players they needed to advance in the playoffs. The front office built a team which was designed to potentially win the AL Central, a division with 3 teams actively rebuilding and 1 small market team in the twilight of their competitive window who decided not to start the rebuild only because of how weak the division already was. Unfortunately, a team capable of winning the AL Central is not a team which necessarily would have won in other divisions or the playoffs. It's also worth noting the Twins won the AL Central in 2020 by the absolute slimmest of margins. 2 teams were only 1 game back, folks.
  10. bean5302
    I think the issue in regard to utility players is whether or not the player can cover shortstop and center field. In terms of elite shortstop prospects I'd define as players who are likely to be starting MLB shortstops, the Twins have nothing. In order of rank of likelihood, I'd say Lewis a22 AA (med/low) - Pros: Range, arm. Negs: Bat, Glove, ACL recovery Miller a18 Rk (low) - Pros: Scouted Bat, Fluid, Range. Negs: Arm, Speed, No pro track record Martin a22 AA (very low) - Pros: Very Good Bat. Negs: Arm, Speed Gordon a25 AAA (remote) - Pros: Could fill out, Arm. Negs: Very poor glove, Range, Bat Palacios a25 AA (remote) - Pros: Could fill out, Speed, Arm. Negs: Glove, Range, Bat Javier a22 A+ (remote) - Pros: Speed, Range, Arm. Negs: Very weak bat. Cavaco a20 A- (remote) - Pros: Arm, Speed. Negs: Very poor glove, Very weak bat I ranked Lewis above Martin despite Martin being very likely to be an MLB starter because I don't think Martin's physical tools will play at SS. Lewis is much less likely to ever be an MLB starter with serious questions emerging about his bat, but Lewis has superior athleticism. Lewis has about a 1/2 season to prove himself and there is a lot he needs to prove. 2022 is a make or break season for him. Either his stock will soar back up the charts or expectations will plummet. I don't see a middle ground considering his age, missed time and last performance. Noah Miller has a mediocre, arm for a shortstop with maximum throwing speed at 89mph and his speed isn't outstanding, but scouting reports say he moves well laterally contributing to good range. He could stick at shortstop, but needs to be careful about adding weight in the pursuit of added strength so he can maintain the needed range for the position. I rated him low because, well, MLB shortstops do not grow on trees. Much better prospects than Miller have flamed out and until there's some pro track record to evaluate, he's not going to get a vote of high confidence.
  11. bean5302
    Palacios is very unlikely to be an MLB caliber starting shortstop. Gordon is blocking him at AAA right now, but I'd be okay with the Twins calling Palacios up directly from AA to get a peek at him. Seth reminded me Palacios is a free agent at the end of the year if he's not on the 40 man roster.
  12. bean5302
    I don't know as I've seen much of the clean house sentiment to be honest. Plenty of frustration and eroded confidence, though. I think the frustration is warranted. I think 2022 is probably the season in which fans will start calling for Falvey and Levine to be walked out the door if things go poorly.
  13. bean5302
    They had 2 starting pitchers with regular season ERAs of 3.18 and 3.58 that year. They won all 3 WS games where those pitchers pitched. Also, sometimes crazy stuff happens. I don't think MLB owners/mangement should rely upon luck. The Twins are not remotely close to small market.
  14. bean5302
    My bullish-ness on Baez has been tanking lately. I'm actually pretty concerned about Baez at this point. His K rate is getting extreme and he's offering at 47% of pitches outside the zone now this season with a brutally low 62% overall contact rate and whiff rate cruising past 20%... I mean... those numbers make Nick Gordon's look solid. There are a lot of other free agent shortstop options out there.
  15. bean5302
    I heard the Twins looked competitive in warm ups!
  16. bean5302
    Duffey was pretty much the definition of dominant in 2019-2020. I mean, at least I consider his performance pretty dominant: 80 G, 81.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 12.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, ERA+ 193.
  17. bean5302
    Wow, I guess I totally whiffed on that. I wonder if they'd me more inclined to sign MiLB deals with the Twins or take a chance at a change of scenery?
  18. bean5302
    Lots of underdogs performing well lately and that's nice to see. The Twins need some guys to step up in the minors given how thin the top ranked players are in the system.
  19. bean5302
    Stop building strawmen, please. Nowhere have I ever suggested Palacios is as good of a prospect as Martin. They're not in the same ballpark. Martin is the Twins #1 prospect and a universal top 100 prospect in baseball. Palacios is, at best, a top 20 organizational prospect. Not every prospect is going to be elite. Not every player at the MLB level is going to win an MVP. That doesn't mean every player outside the top 100 prospect list is expendable or if they aren't top 100, that they're destined to be MiLB roster filler.
  20. bean5302
    Honestly, wouldn't surprise me if Arraez or Polanco was moved this offseason. They're both starting quality 2B at the MLB level.
  21. bean5302
    I wasn't saying anything. I just posted stats. People can take what they want, if anything, from the stats. My experience is most fans have a tendency to form strong opinions on prospects and players based on an emotional attachment for any number of reasons. I expect Palacios and Gordon would both be selected in the Rule 5 draft if left off the 40 man roster because regardless of whether or not there's a journeyman free agent out there, retooling/rebuilding teams will view the 5-6 years of team control over young players as potential gold mines if either one of those guys develops into a starter. I find it especially ironic somebody would be so high on Martin (a22) because of his OPS of .832, but believes Palacios (a24) is MiLB roster filler at .819. Even more so when Lewis (a22) is an obvious high value shortstop because of his AA OPS of .649, fielding percentage of .946 and RF/9 of 3.14... all dramatically inferior to Palacios in his last significant playing time which was 2 years ago.
  22. bean5302
    Good news! Both can be promoted since the Twins have moved away from having him play shortstop a week ago. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-austin-martin-to-focus-on-center-field/
  23. bean5302
    As far as I can see, Sano is just something in between Chris Davis and Chris Carter only more inconsistent. Sano is going to be here next year due to the $12MM guaranteed (9.25 + 2.75) due. Sano will then get a another team to give him a one year contract where he'll post negative WAR and then his career in MLB will be over.
  24. bean5302
    It's kind of interesting to see so many comments on Thorpe. I expect he'll be non-tendered and catch on in Korea or something.
  25. bean5302
    So back to the topic of rotation, what the Twins do in the offseason to address their rotation will determine whether or not their goal is to be .500+ (Pineda, Cueto) go for the World Series (Verlander, Stroman) or start planning their surprise at being awful speech before the season starts (all Twins controlled guys)
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