bean5302

I'd boot Thorpe, Smeltzer and Barnes off the 40 man. Gant and Stashak to the bullpen. Dobnak and Jax to AAA.

In 2006, Morneau started the season decently and he owned an OPS north of .800 for 1/2 of April but then slumped for about 15 games into early May before crushing the ball starting in June. By all accounts I've ever seen, Morneau is an even better person than he is a baseball player. Concussions suck. I feel like they may have cost Morneau entry into the Baseball HoF.

Rogers' recovery status will be key to what the Twins do. He's in his final year of arbitration, but if it looks like he's healing up well, I can't see him being non-tendered. When it comes to steady high performance over the past 4 years, Rogers is in elite company so I'd hope the Twins bring him back if they expect him to be healthy. 2.47, 2.66, 2.81, 2.03 (Pressley) 2.23, 3.10, 4.03, 1.86 (Hader) 4.33, 1.87, 1.14, 2.56 (Hendriks) 2.33, 2.85, 2.84, 2.12 (Rogers) 3.13, 8.00, 3.97, 2.19 (Kimbrel) 2.09, 2.28, 2.93, 3.85 (Chapman) Aside from Rogers, I'd like to see Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala, Farrell, Stashak, Moran and Gant. That's 8 total with Alcala, Stashak and Moran all having options.

From the established players, you have to like what Polanco and Garver have done at the plate. Ober is the brightest spot from the prospects who got the call. The Twins were active at the trade deadline flipping most of the talent with value they weren't going to keep or couldn't keep. Down on the farm, Miranda's huge year was a welcome surprise for somebody left off the 40 man and the Twins got some impressive performances from several pitchers. I liked what Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Varland and Gipson-Long have done in the minors, it's just a bummer so many injuries have slowed guys down. I'm sure we'll see a couple people get their feet wet at the MLB level next year.

Make it a mocha and I'm in!

I'm not ignoring the timeline and I actually considered it. The thing is... drafted players don't take 16 years to wash out of baseball. It happens much faster. Teams have to add drafted players to the 40 man after 4-5 years. They have 3 options once added to the 40 man. The number of players who are minor league free agents who become contributors 0.5+ WAR types is virtually nil. If a drafted player hasn't shown significant value by 7-8 years, it's over. So for the analysis, players drafted prior to 2008 were already at the end of their rope. Either they were regular MLB players or they were MiLB free agents/retired/out of the MLB system. The story of whether or not they'd have a career as an MLB player was already written. This analysis is early. Definitely, with a huge amount on the line for many Twins prospects next year. Which is why I caveated that multiple times, but I find it to be pretty much the very same thing as a top prospects list. It's been 5 years now. 1-2 years for top college players 3-4 for average college players. 2-3 years for top HS players and 4-5 for average high school players. Those are the guidelines for when drafted players make MLB. We're well into that window now and I think this analysis can start being formed.

Injuries didn't hurt the Twins nearly as much as other teams. There were 2 keys. The front office not addressing the loss of what Odorizzi was expected to be in 2020 and relying upon Maeda to be an Ace. This led to the front office adding back end "depth" free agent starters instead of #1-2 starters to the top of the rotation. The front office thinking you can just plug-n-play relief staff. The front office basically blew up the bullpen and it didn't work. I've seen this happen before with the Twins. The first seems like a more glaring issue. Relief arms are pretty ethereal, but losing May was a big deal IMHO.

and had a double

Heck of a box score for Kepler and Ryan tonight! Nick Gordon continues to creep back up the OPS chart towards playable as well. His improved slash line probably adds some pressure to the front office in regard to his 40 man spot. It'll be interesting to see what they'll do. At the end of August, I would have said Gordon had almost no shot at being added.

Kepler isn't having a great year, but his career line vs. lefties isn't unplayably bad .211/.285/.354 OPS .639. That comes with a 7.9% BB rate and a 22.2% K rate. Replacing his actual AVG and SLG with the expected numbers .251/.332/.437 OPS .769, where he'd again be an above average hitter with excellent corner defense. He'd be somewhere in that 2.5-3.0 WAR area. The shift is absolutely killing him, no doubt. Bunting feels like a novel approach to bring the shift down. I think it's worth it, but I doubt Baldelli will call for it. Kepler is not the issue with the Twins. He's good, not great and he's cheap.

It gives the front office (not Larnach) a C for drafting Larnach because they can't get the same grade as Seattle did for Kyle Lewis as 2020's Rookie of the Year. Larnach was a first round draft pick who is expected to make MLB. He's not better than 93% of first rounders, he's the same as roughly 50% of first rounders drafted in spots 26-30. A really nice Fangraphs article broke down 1st rounder results. https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/ Larnach was a 26th overall pick giving him a 58% chance of making the majors. The 26th overall pick from 2000-2010 had generated an average of 4.5 bWAR at the MLB level by 2016. Overall, not including CBA, 245/330 made MLB (74%). 87/330 (26%) made MLB and produced an average of more than least 1.4 bWAR/season where 158 (48%) made MLB and produced less than 1.5 bWAR per season and 85/330 (26%) never made MLB. Larnach is right in the middle right now. That doesn't get the front office an A grade because that's average. Larnach could turn it on and really play well next year and that would absolutely impact the front offices grade on him, I just don't think he will.

Larnach is not a 0.9 WAR player. Baseball Reference, especially on its own, is a poor source for WAR for Twins position players because it can dramatically inflate defensive value since the underlying metrics don't take the shift into consideration and the Twins shift heavily. Fangraphs has Larnach at 0.2 WAR which is much more reasonable given his well below average bat and lack of defensive value. He's been replacement level. I gave Larnach a D grade for projection considering he hadn't shown home run power in college until his draft year and he hasn't shown HR power since. His swing is more Joe Mauer than Justin Morneau. This leaves Larnach with a hit/plate discipline tool only, but he's proved much more likely to strike out than initially expected. Rooker got a C projection because there's a lot to suggest he's just been unlucky this year. There has to be room for success. If Rooker was OPS'ing 1.200, there has to be room above "C" grade. Make it to MLB? C or higher. Contributor at MLB for B or higher. Excel at MLB A. Based on the model I've used, I expect the average MLB team would receive a C grade. Falvey has a C- but things are very much in flux, and as I noted several times, things can change. I think it's fair to point out how Falvey has backed himself into a corner with his draft picks by drafting players well ahead of their projected position and drafting players who are very one sided and have very little to fall back on. Starter or nothing players. I also think it's more than fair to heavily criticize Falvey for trading away a late 2nd rounder for cash.

You and I have very different viewpoints of legit major league caliber performances it seems. I want my MLB players to be better than AAA replacement level.

Agreed the shift is absolutely killing Kepler, but I disagree Kepler playing CF overvalues him. Kepler can cover center field adequately and if he's playing it, he's producing value by doing so. Of course, I don't think Kepler should be looked at as a starting center fielder.

This is about the results from the front office based on what has been seen up until now, including how well our prospects have performed in the minors. There are exceptions to the rule, but most eventual MLB players do not struggle or even fail to impress in the low minors multiple years after they were drafted. Still, getting to MLB is absolutely worth something and that's reflected in the front office's grade for Larnach. The front office got a C grade for Larnach because he made it to MLB in the first place. C grade is acceptable. It's average. It's good enough. It's nothing special. Even if Larnach never makes anything out of himself, and I projected him not to, it still gave Falvey a C grade. This isn't an Uber ride where somebody gets fired if you don't give them 5 stars. Larnach was drafted as a bat only player which means he absolutely has to rake to be of significant value. The front office was behind the 8-ball from day 1 on the Larnach, Sabato, Wallner and Rooker picks because there was nothing to fall back on. The front office made that call and they need to live with it. Side note, it is not uncommon to see college players in MLB at 3-4 years, and the best college players get to MLB in 1-2 years. 2020 did throw some wrenches into the mix, but Larnach is not particularly young and he participated in the alternate site in 2020. He'll be 25 years old at the start of next season, and that's generally about the cutoff for a "prospect" being considered a prospect. The effects of a lost season diminish over time. As far as missing context, I'm not writing a book, I'm writing a blog. To deep dive into every conceivable aspect of the draft would take hundreds of hours of work. You're more than welcome to do the digging yourself. :)

Grading Derek Falvey's Drafts With the minor leagues essentially done for the year, it’s a fair time to review the Derek Falvey’s performance through the drafts. Falvey has been in charge of the Twins’ front office for 5 drafts now, though there’s not close to enough data to judge the 2021 draft group’s actual playing performance. I believe Derek Falvey’s job has 6 major components, in no particular order. 1. MLB on field performance. 2. Free agency signings. 3. Trades. 4. Player conduct. 5. Drafting. 6. Player development. Drafting should be considered separate from player development as they’re not the same thing. Drafting involves identifying pre-professional talent while players are outside the organization and player development is all about finding the ways to improve players while in the system. For example, getting a 10th rounder to produce at the MLB level has almost nothing to do with the draft; that’s all player development. I’m concentrated on the first 3 rounds of the draft, which include Competitive Balance A and Competitive Balance B picks and works out to just about 100 players even in most years. Obviously, a 1st round / CBA is much more important than a 2nd round / CBB pick and then a 3rd rounder drops off more. I’ve chosen to grade the overall draft results on that scale. First Round/CBA = a multiplier of 2.00. Second Round/CBB = a multiplier of 1.50. 3rd Round = a multiplier of 1.00. My grades are subjective, based on performance of the pick, whether or not the front office reached to get the pick, how quickly the pick has advanced and my opinion of the projected performance of the pick at this point. I didn’t ding the Twins for any of the lost CBA/CBB picks due to free agency signings or trades except Hughes. The Twins essentially traded their late 2nd rounder, a CBB pick in 2019 for a little cash; that’s an absolute dereliction of duty and it’s worth a grade. Huge Reach = 2+ rounds ahead of MLB.com projection Reach = 1 round ahead of MLB.com projection Aggressive = ½ round ahead of MLB.com projection (i.e. CBA instead of 2nd round) On Par = In the round where projected, within a reasonable distance of expected. (i.e. picked 20th overall when projected at 25th) Deal = 1 round behind MLB.com projection Steal = 2+ rounds behind MLB.com projection 2017 Player Grade MLB Draft # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perf. Progress Projection 1st Royce Lewis C 5 1 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par High School 22 AA D C B CBA Brent Rooker C 50 35 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive College 26 MLB B D C 2nd Landon Leach F 101 37 37-67 (Rnd2) Reach High School 21 A- F F F 3rd Blayne Enlow C 29 76 76-105 (Rnd3) Steal High School 22 A+ C D C 2018 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perform Progress Projection 1st Trevor Larnach C 26 20 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par College 24 MLB C B D 2nd Ryan Jeffers B >200 59 44-78 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 24 MLB D A C 3rd Forfeit for Lynn 1yr N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2019 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Progress Projection 1st Keoni Cavaco F 28 13 1-30 (Rnd1) Aggressive High School 20 A- F C F CBA Matt Wallner D 60 39 31-41 (CBA) Aggressive College 23 A+ C C F 2nd Matt Canterino B 46 54 42-69 (Rnd2) On Par College 23 A+ A C A CBB Forefeit (to trade Hughes) F Total Failure N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Spencer Steer C >200 90 79-107 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 23 AA C A C 2020 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Progress Projection 1st Aaron Sabato C 41 27 1-29 (Rnd1) Reach College 22 A+ B B D 2nd Alerick Soularie D 105 59 38-60 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 22 A- D C C CBB Forefit in Maeda Trade N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Forefit for Donaldson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2021 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Progress Projection 1st Chase Petty A 27 26 1-29 (Rnd1) On Par High School 18 Rk Pass C N/A CBA Noah Miller C 62 36 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive High School 18 Rk Pass C N/A 2nd Steve Hajjar C 100 61 37-63 (Rnd2) Reach College 20 N/A Inc. D N/A 3rd Cade Povich D >250 98 72-101 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 21 A- Pass B N/A When reviewing the drafts, it seems apparent Derek Falvey believes his front office is a significantly better judge of player talent than MLB.com as he frequently drafts players well ahead of MLB.com’s projections. This doesn’t mean Falvey is wrong. MLB.com is just one source and it would be expected the Twins scouts could be superior to MLB.com’s. Draft picks routinely shift around during the season depending on their performance leading right up to the draft. Regardless, MLB.com’s projections are usually pretty close to other sources which makes for a good baseline as to the scouting world in general. If Falvey’s front office and scouting department is better, it should show up in the advancement and development of players. So how do things look? Well, in a nutshell, I’d give the front office a C- overall with a GPA of 1.76, but it’s a very incomplete picture. I believe 2022 will be critical to evaluating Falvey’s drafts. Lewis, Rooker, Larnach and Cavaco are on their last year of grace period to “prove it.” While Rooker and Larnach get major points for making it to the big show, neither has performed well enough to stick around. From a pitching standpoint, Falvey has only drafted 1 first round pitcher in 5 years and 8 chances. For the most part, Falvey has chosen guys with good breaking pitch offerings who were down the rankings a bit and focused on hitters with the highest picks. The only 1st rounder choice was 100mph high school flame thrower Chase Petty earlier this year. Petty received mixed rankings, but MLB was about as bullish on him as anybody else and Petty made his 1 start at the FCL Twins this year. Landon Leach, Matt Canterino and Steve Hajjar make up the 2nd round pitching selections. 2 of the 3 are big reaches and Leach is already a total bust. Canterino’s performance is a saving grace here as his injury history has slowed his advancement while Hajjar didn’t make a competitive appearance this year. 3rd rounders include Blayne Enlow and Cade Povich. Enlow was projected high, but velocity drops and concerns over signing him let the Twins save up some slot money and get the chance to make a run at him. Enlow’s situation sort of mirror’s Canterino’s. Injuries have derailed his advancement. Povich is just a head scratcher. He was way, way down almost all prospect lists if he even appeared at all. Prospectslive.com had him at 537, but the Twins apparently liked enough of what they saw to send him to the Low-A Ft. Myers Miracle. Falvey has shown a strong affinity for aggressively pursuing bat only players with lots of power and not a lot of anything else. Rooker, Wallner and Sabato are all one tool wonders and all were a bit of a reach. Larnach is now in the same boat after his advanced eye at the plate turned out to be outmatched against more talented pitching. If they don’t rake, they’re busts and finding spots for all of those guys would be impossible on the roster, but it would also mean the drafts were hugely successful. Unfortunately, that has not been the case. Rooker and Larnach are not getting the job done with Wallner advancing too slowly for his draft position and experience and Sabato narrowly avoiding a “bust” moniker this year with a hot last couple months. Soularie, another bat heavy big reach, has a little more defensive potential so the Twins are trying to see if he can stick at 2B. The Twins have also gone for the athleticism over everything approach a couple times with Royce Lewis and Keoni Cavaco. Lewis is the one Falvey really can’t afford to miss on. Lewis was a first overall pick who hasn’t played competitively in 2 years and wasn’t nearly good enough when he did play, but he’s such a gifted athlete with such a great character that it’s believed he can still turn the corner. Cavaco… well, the best thing which can honestly be said about him right now is it’s still a little too early to call him a bust. That said, if Cavaco doesn’t pick it up big time, he will wear the title by mid 2022. The Twins reached a bit with him, and if you’re reaching for your first rounder, it’s important to pay off and the Twins doubled down by reaching for Wallner for the same draft. Spencer Steer completed the 3/3 reaches for hitters in 2019 and was an out of the park, 6 run, grand slam style reach for good measure, but at least he’s still showing a glimmer of promise with some fast promotions. I’m not sure who was driving the car in 2019 is what I’m sayin’ here. Thank goodness Canterino pitched well in between his injury woes or the 2019 draft would honestly be looking potentially catastrophic here. Truthfully, draft results are finicky things to analyze, especially in the first 3-4 years and the loss of 2020's MiLB season really tightens the sample size here. Many quality MLB players have their hiccups in the minors or develop a little slower so the draft grades could really swing wildly next year. It would take quite a few things working out, but I could see the Falvey front office draft grade swinging all the way up into the C+ range next year… or tanking straight into F territory for that matter. I think it’s also important to consider this isn’t graded on a curve and a 2.00 GPA and a C grade for “average” isn’t a call to fire the front office; it means the front office is competent enough and doing their job well enough in a crazy competitive marketplace where many pieces have to fall into place to grade higher.

2/3rds of first round picks make MLB. 1/2 of second rounders make it and 1/3 of 3-5 rounders make it, though they may not become regulars. It's borne in my grade of C for Rooker and Larnach despite neither one of them looking like a legit MLB player now.

We probably got Enlow because we were able to go overslot on him. I mentioned that in my response to LastOnePicked. Enlow fell down the charts pretty hard because of his velocity drop and inconsistency during his draft year, but it's likely he wasn't picked by another team before the Twins made him their 3rd round pick because other teams assumed he wouldn't sign at slot. I did consider that in giving Enlow a C grade instead of a D grade. Enlow hasn't even made it to AA yet and while injuries are a valid excuse for players, they're not an excuse for the front office. A front office is paid to perform, period. My expectation is top round picks will eventually perform, regardless of whether or not player development is top notch. Certainly player development does have a hand in helping draftee's make adjustments, but the athleticism, eyesight, reaction times, intuition, feel for the ball, confidence and other factors should be part of the make up of an early round pick. Turning a player like Louie Varland into a legitimate starting prospect is a credit to player development. Turning a prospect like Royce Lewis who should have been drafted with 90% of the skill he needed into an MLB contributor is just expected. Landon Leach is a bust and it's on the front office with a 2nd rounder not even justifying a promotion to A+ ball after 5 years in the system. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Twins released him. Leach's peripherals weren't nearly as kind as his ERA in 2017, and quite frankly, top picks need to excel in rookie ball regardless of whether they were drafted out of high school. I'll update the chart to reflect the high school pick.

I tend to agree Falvey's draft history suggests a certain confidence bordering on perhaps arrogrance based on MLB.com scouting and draft rankings, and even if Falvey is correct on making the reach, the reach isn't necessary if the same player could be had a round later. Hajjar is a good example of how draft ranks are subjective, and how other factors might contribute to a pick. The SB Nation Texas Rangers site, Lone Star Ball had a nice writeup on him pre-draft on July 1 including several ranks. Baseball America #61, MLB #100, Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) #142 and Keith Law (Athletic) #95. I also found Hajjar in Prospects1500 at #101, and ProspectsLive at #114. The question on Hajjar is whether or not he still would have been there at pick 98 (probably)? If he was still there, the Twins could have still picked him, but there is some question on whether or not they could have signed him without saving money elsewhere. Hajjar didn't have a great season and he was young for a college pick so he might have decided to return to Michigan in an attempt to increase his stock. The Twins signed him at slot for $1,129,700 vs. slot value for pick #98 at $593,100. Usually, for a reach, a team would be expected to sign a player under slot. Lewis signed for $1MM under slot (he wasn't expected to go 1st overall, even though he was a top tier pick) and that made it possible for the Twins to sign Enlow, for example. In Hajjar's case, the Twins reached and signed him at slot. It honestly makes little sense unless they really wanted him and weren't going to be able to save money elsewhere on slot to sweeten the offer to entice Hajjar away. Honestly, it's a pure gamble and Falvey deserves the egg on his face if it doesn't pan out.

I think Garver has shown who he is. A highly valuable bat in a super premium position. He's also shown he's injury prone. While fluke injuries can be just that, Garver has a long pattern of lots of fluke injuries, somewhat similar to Buxton. I think 350 plate appearances and 90 games a year is about what to expect from Garver. A tick more than Buxton, but not much. Garver missed time to a foul ball shot in the nether regions, came back for a game or two, then departed on paternity leave. Then came back for a few games, then went out for 20 more games. I'm not sure Garver is likely to be under team control until age 34. I suspect changes to free agency rules in the new CBA will limit team control over him, as well they should. Time will tell.

He'd definitely have value if it weren't for the $12MM a team has to pay him next year ($9.25MM salary and $2.75MM buyout)

In mid August, some folks here thought the Twins were going to likely avoid 90 losses this year after playing good baseball for 2 weeks, but that was always unlikely looking ahead at the schedule and winning percentage at the time. Honestly, I think the Twins have played quite a bit better over the past 2 months and the fact they're not on pace to lose 100 right now is reflective of that. The Twins' second half schedule has been very rough. Do folks realize they'll have 10 games against teams who are right now guaranteed to not finish at or above .500 in the second half? Cubs and Royals. That's it. Detroit (72-78), Cleveland (73-74) and the Angels (72-77) are still all fighting for .500 at the end of the year. In fact, most of the series' the Twins played in the second half are against teams who are already in the playoffs or are fighting for a spot right now.

I gave this a like cause, well, that's a lot of thought and data, haha. You sound a bit disappointed Sano doesn't have a great chance at becoming the all time the poster boy for plate futility, lol!

I didn't miss that part. My point is Sano had years and years to get close to 40, but he hasn't, and I compared Sano to Kepler so as to reinforce Sano not having legitimate 40 HR potential. He just doesn't make enough contact to get there. It's not a strength thing, it's a injury/health and 50% strikeout/walk thing reducing his potential at bats to hit home runs. Sano will likely become a qualified hitter for the first time in his career this year playing in 132-135 games or so with 31 home runs. In 150 games, that's still only a 35 home run pace with a career low strikeout rate and a lower than average walk rate (more contact) and an average career HR/FB rate. He just doesn't have that 40 HR season in him and that's been pretty solidified for several years now. He's not the Sano Twins fans were excited about in the mid 2010s with the theoretical 80+ game power and excellent plate discipline. If we were to re-grade Sano and compare him to who we hoped he was back in his prospect years... 2015 Hit 55, Power 75, Run 40, Arm 70, Field 40, Overall 65 2021 Hit 40, Power 60, Run 35, Arm 70, Field 30, Overall 45

I appreciate the scouring for a deal, but the Twins need a #1 and #2 pitcher. Sifting through the bargain bin in the hopes somebody turns into one isn't my preference. Hernandez (26) will be nearly 27 at the start of next season and with 4 years in the big show, has only had 1 nice season in 2020 which featured only 25 innings pitched, but his FIP suggested a lot of luck in the limited sample size. His FIP this year stands at 5.08 suggesting, again, he's just gotten lucky in limited appearances. In regard to his "stuff" he's a soft tosser with an average velocity of 91mph without showing much in the minors. After 6 years in Houston's system, he still hadn't seen AA and was left off the 40 man roster. Miami selected him in a rule 5 draft so he got fast tracked to MLB from there and he's managed to hang on at the fringes with a team in a rebuild. Javier (24) will be 7 years removed from his draft and 25 before the start of next season. Another Houston prospect. He's posted very uninspiring FIP numbers in the high minors and MLB as a swing starter. He didn't exactly fly through the minors and that's generally a mark against front line potential. His career MLB BABIP is .218 and he's due for huge regression from his 3.33 ERA to his 4.33 xFIP. I don't think it's a surprise his K rate and BB rate both ballooned this year as his velocity increased 1.5mph, likely due to max effort throwing afforded by the bullpen conversion. Toussant (25) may have a gif with a 97mph fastball, but that's way faster than normal for him (94mph) and he's largely abandoned that pitch this year in favor of his sinker (93mph), I'd assume to get his walk rate to playable levels. He's basically a sinker, splitfinger, curve pitcher this year and that explains the drop off in K rate as sinkers are generally better at inducing ground balls and weak contact than strikeouts. Historically, his sinker didn't play well so I'm not sure what's better about it this year unless it just plays better without the four seamer. Without the strikeouts, there's nothing to see here.