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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    After a knee surgery, it's not unusual to have an inflammation flare up on a very heavy frame like Sano's, I wouldn't think. It's a tough spot at the moment as Sano won't be eligible to return until after the deadline and I can't see any team having remote interest in him. We'll have to see who the Twins trade away, if anybody, and what impact that has on the depth. Unfortunately, the Twins got almost no look at Sano at all. I'll be the first to admit that while his actual production was poor, it's enticing how baseballs simply rocket off his bat. I could see the front office being suckered in again by the metrics. I really don't know what to think. There's a 0% chance anybody picks up Sano's option and there's a 0% chance to trade him now that he's on the IL. No team will pick Sano's contract up so he'll absolutely pass through waivers if he's DFA'd. At that point, Sano will almost certainly refuse the assignment as there's just no time to make it back to the roster before 8/31 when his playoff eligibility expires. He's free to negotiate an MLB minimum contract across 29 other teams if he declines the assignment. It's just too risky for him to accept an assignment even though he's played so poorly. What do the Twins gain? A roster spot. What do the Twins lose? The potential Sano's bat could be valuable in September and potentially the playoffs. There's really nothing else at stake here.
  2. bean5302
    Sabato's walk rate was down to 10.2% in July with a corresponding drop off in his K rate to 28.8%. His power is the real deal, but with so much swing and miss in his game and no defensive value, I don't know. It's hard to get back on the bandwagon. Based on his comments and previous walk and strike out numbers, it feels like he's feasting on mistake pitches, and those mistakes get less and less frequent as the levels pick up.
  3. bean5302
    Woods-Richardson gave up 2 hits and 3 walks rather than 4 hits. He had 4 strike outs. That said 5 batters put on base in 2.2 innings 1.87 WHIP isn't a smooth start. Good news Woods-Richardson was apparently able to consistently work out of trouble and make pitches when he needed to, though.
  4. bean5302
    Palacios is no longer a pure glove shortstop. He carried an OPS north of .800 almost every month last year in AA. Also, the fielding reports and stats reflect Palacios as a potentially acceptable shortstop, not a stud there anymore. In any case, I'd like to see him get extended playing time considering he's playing on his 2nd year of MiLB free agency and the Twins burned one of his options this year. It'd sure be nice to find out whether or not Palacios is a serviceable MLB shortstop.
  5. bean5302
    There was a discussion on what's worse. A team which has rebuilds, but is very good in between or a team which is forever mediocre. Kansas City fans can point back to 2 World Series appearances and 1 victory in the past 10 years. Kansas City can point to payrolls which exceed the Twins' maximum (achieved this year). Those recent World Series' hold fans' interest for a while.
  6. bean5302
    That does make sense. If the deals were always lopsided in favor of the team getting prospects or the team getting the elite player, the deals would change. It just about what the teams are risking for the reward. I think it's pretty rare teams acquire an elite player and that player does not help the team at all in the current year. Playoffs don't grow on trees historically in baseball, but the owners seem intent on changing that, but that's a different topic. The risk is next year is totally unknown. Who knows what will happen? That's the case for any team. If you're on the track to the playoffs this year, a single World Series win is worth any player in baseball whether the player's name is Mike Trout or Juan Soto.
  7. bean5302
    Honestly, most of the pitching staff was due for massive regression. Even after being shelled for 10 runs, Ryan still isn't there yet as he lucked out in 4 of 5 of his starts in July. His 3.78 ERA is still way lower than his 4.43 FIP and 4.63 xFIP. As of June 30, ERA vs FIP vs xFIP and what their season xFIPs have done since June 30th. Ryan 3.20 vs. 3.93 vs. 4.65 (xFIP is down 0.02) Gray 2.17 vs. 2.86 vs. 3.31 (xFIP is up 0.48) Archer 3.08 vs. 4.90 vs. 4.99 (xFIP is up 0.09) Bundy 4.71 vs. 4.32 vs. 4.44 (xFIP is down 0.10) Smeltzer 2.86 vs. 4.41 vs. 4.67 (xFIP is up 0.32) Apart from Bundy, every other Twins pitcher had an ERA at least 1.24 pts lower than their xFIP The rotation is pitching very similar to how they were, they're just not getting ridiculously lucky anymore. I don't mind the Twins playing Sano. He's on the roster so they could get a peek at him so I don't see the harm in doing what they intended. A couple more days of game time before DFAing him is fine. Now... if Sano continues to struggle at the plate and he's still on the roster after mid August, now there's a problem.
  8. bean5302
    Polanco's a very good player and it's well recognized here and across the league. This year he's really made a big change in plate discipline and it's paid off with an elite walk rate which I wouldn't have expected, and I think that further elevates his game quite a bit. Defensive metrics continue to be very divided on him and it has a big impact on fWAR vs bWAR. I think the question on Polanco is about how much the Twins gain or lose by having Arraez as the starting 2B and what Polanco could bring to the team in terms of trade value.
  9. bean5302
    The level of butt-hurt in here... It's as if this guy just slapped your mom and tripped your dad (who was using crutches at the time) in front of you before doing one of those douchey back up with the arms spread, head tilted "whatcha gonna do?" faces. The potential of the White Sox is undeniable. They're sleeping monsters right now. If their pitchers figure some stuff out and have a couple bounces go their way, that team could be unstoppable. Cease is an ace this year Kopech has ace potential. Giolito has ace potential. Lynn has ace potential Cueto is having a nice resurgence year Every single one of those guys is arguably potentially better than any pitcher we have. Certainly everybody excluding Cueto. Now, when it comes to the offensive side, they could use a little help, but Moncada appears to finally be waking up and Eloy Jimenez was just activated. Both have more potential than any player not named Buxton on the Twins. The White Sox could easily go on a .700 winning percentage to end the season and the Twins have been under .500 since mid/late May. The White Sox's schedule is more than 1/2 made up of series' against losing teams, most of whom are going to be sellers and will probably further regress. Rockies (.450, bad, sellers) Athletics (.376, terrible, sellers) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Rangers (.449 bad) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Tigers (.400 terrible) Astros (.650 excellent) Guardians (.510 good) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Orioles (.505, wow, I didn't expect that, go Orioles) Diamondbacks (.459, bad, sellers) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Twins (.531 good) Mariners (.540 good) Athletics (.376 terrible, sellers) Rockies (.450 bad, sellers) Tigers (.400, terrible) Guardians (.510 good) Tigers (.400, terrible) Twins (.531 good) Padres (.550 very good) Twins (.531 good) I do not like the White Sox, but I recognize how much money has been spent there and just how much talent that team has. The fact they're hovering around .500 this year feels like an act of God.
  10. bean5302
    Martin hurt his elbow diving for a ball on July 7th. It wasn't expected to be long term.
  11. bean5302
    Beckham has a long MLB track record. He's not serviceable away from 3B and has nearly 2000 plate appearances where he's been league average. He's got like a .556 BABIP right now. If his K:BB ratio were reversed, I'd be inclined to agree with you because that would signal a change in Beckham's approach. Instead, it just seems like all the balls he's hitting have eyes. To be honest, there's not much more a guy can do from a stats standpoint to have earned a chance, but at age 32, he had to know he was a long shot. It's just not a good decision organizationally to call him up, and I don't suspect any contender would be interested in a 32 year old scrub level veteran 3B, even if he is cheap.
  12. bean5302
    Buxton has a huge contract in front of him and he's an All Star caliber player, not an MVP caliber player even when he's playing. Buxton was the 4th best CF in the AL by WAR at the All Star break this year and he's close to a pace for being qualified for the 2nd time in his career. Considering his big contract, Buxton doesn't generate a ton of surplus value. The dreams of a 10 WAR season are so far fetched...
  13. bean5302
    I haven't seen a lot of evidence of any pitchers being able to depress the HR/FB rate long term and analysis shows xFIP is a significantly better tool at forecasting performance than FIP. All the metrics are flawed to a degree. Maybe there's a pitcher where xFIP isn't as accurate as FIP, but there's plenty of red flag on deciding Mahle will be super effective with the Twins. Especially if the playoffs go through a homer prone ball park.
  14. bean5302
    I think the Red Sox are cooked at this point. They have a negative run differential and their only shot is a Wildcard spot where they're 5 games back right now. Eovaldi is interesting to me. Maybe Vazquez. I wish Buxton was actually healthy enough to play CF every day. It would potentially open the door for JD Martinez if the Twins could shuffle some guys.
  15. bean5302
    His xFIP is 4.12. His ERA is 4.48, right in line with the career spreads. He's not way better. Mahle has a very good K rate, but his walk rate is pretty poor. Home and away ERA/FIP splits are pretty extreme 5.06/3.74 for ERA and 5.11/3.52 for FIP, but his xFIP away doesn't show the same advantage as it still sits in a back end rotation arm slot at 4.16 due largely to the fact he puts way, way more balls into play away from home. Mahle is also the poster child for never allow 3rd TTO. He may be better than 5th rotation arm, but he's not somebody I would expect to be solid in the middle or better spot in a playoff rotation.
  16. bean5302
    I think it's safe to call Winder's career as a starter to be likely over right now.
  17. bean5302
    Twins trade Keoni Cavaco and Aaron Sabato for Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. That would be pretty ideal.
  18. bean5302
    Let's be honest, Falvey has a fetish for bat only guys who could be outrun by a guy in a power wheelchair with a dead battery. Miranda, Urshela, Larnach, Arraez, Sano, Correa, Sanchez, Garlick, Celestino, Contreras... they're all well below average runners for their positions. The only quicker than average for their position guys we have are probably Gordon, Kepler and Buxton. There is very little speed on the team and it doesn't feel like there's an effort to stress base running awareness. Brian Dozier wasn't a fast guy, but heads up base running made him a positive value on the base paths. Conversely, Eduardo Escobar couldn't get a good jump on a base stealing attempt if the game was on the line. The team Base Running on Fangraphs is -13.3 and ranks 29th in MLB (worst in the AL). Texas is the best at +16.5. Top 10 is +3 or higher, bottom 10 are -3 or lower. It all adds up to the Twins coughing up probably 2 wins this year on base running, which isn't crippling, but 2 more wins would sure be nice.
  19. bean5302
    Neither Miranda nor Kirilloff will allow pitchers to walk them so they'll both probably be streaky hitters and neither one of them are going to be plus defenders or will likely flash much athleticism. That said, Miranda's season has been more impressive than Kirilloff's in pure production. Since June 1, Miranda is .328/.373/.536 OPS .909 wRC+ 158 on an inflated .378 BABIP. Kirilloff's post June 17th is .290/.328/.439 OPS .767 wRC+ 116. Also on a likely inflated .326 BABIP. Statcast has both of them about the same in xWOBA this year with slightly higher average and max exit velocities for Miranda. The exit velocities (average and max) both trail extreme power hitter Nick Gordon by a fair bit so color me unimpressed. The lack of power from Kirilloff jibes with his history. He's only flashed plus power during his AAA stint this year while Miranda has shown good power at several stops along the way. TBH, Kirilloff kinda seems like the twin of Trevor Larnach. Supposedly advanced hit tool with raw power despite neither one of them flashing that power regularly and Larnach will take a walk when the pitcher insists on it. I'm not bullish on Larnach so I don't think it's surprising I'm not bullish on Kirilloff right now, either.
  20. bean5302
    I'll try to remember to reserve all concerns short of a pitcher's arm spontaneously falling off.
  21. bean5302
    YAAAASSSSSS, if only we could have 12 mid/back end starters, we'd definitely win the World Series. Mighty good thinkin'
  22. bean5302
    He was added to the 40 man this year when he came up as a COVID replacement. That allowed him to be optioned back to AAA and removed from the 40 man without exposing him to waivers. You're entitled to your opinion that Palacios is MiLB roster filler so it doesn't matter if he gets any playing time.
  23. bean5302
    You're right. Vegas has never been wrong about anything ever. Personal opinions seem awfully unwelcome to you.
  24. bean5302
    Right now, today. White Sox 50% Guardians 30% Twins 20%
  25. bean5302
    I was surprised the Twins were able to sign Palacios to a MiLB contract last year. Very surprised. While you look at his 750 OPS over the season, Palacios didn't show the pop in his bat to start. He's been hitting .798 at OPS (as a shortstop) wRC+ 113 I think, for the past couple months. I don't think it's reasonable to demand a shortstop to hit at an elite level. Palacios is also in his 2nd year of MiLB free agency and just turned age 26. There's really no development left. He's either worth a roster spot as a UI or shortstop or he's not and he's burning options at this point. I don't mind of Steer stays down provided his numbers don't trend up, but he's going to need to be added to the 40 man this year or he'll be lost in the Rule 5. He still has all his options after this year, but he's not young, either. Steer will hit age 25 at the beginning of December.
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