bean5302

I'm concerned about Festa remaining serviceable in the rotation, but his overall Stuff+ values are average, with other pitch modeling systems being much more bullish on Festa's changeup. Time will tell how Festa performs as the scouting reports get better. Festa certainly has a lot less margin for error with his limited pitch repertoire than a guy like Zebby Matthews, but Matthews' actual stuff doesn't include as good of a fastball or a true plus pitch right now. I think both guys may have what it takes to stick at the back end of a rotation, but they both have some work to do if they're going to excel in the future. With the tight budget ownership is expected to cinch down on the front office for 2025, rotational depth is likely going to be a major weakness for the Twins.

I'd be surprised if the front office moved Paddack to the 'pen given their aversion for paying relievers. I think the front office has been much more willing to eat salary or trade assets to move players they don't think fit the organization. I expect the Twins will aggressively shop Paddack, and they'll be willing to part with money from their international signing bonus pool to get it done.

Considering Gray was on record as saying the Twins checked all the boxes in regard to what he was looking for and he certainly presented his experience in Minnesota highly favorably. https://www.mlb.com/news/sonny-gray-on-possible-future-with-twins-before-hitting-free-agency

Royce Lewis didn't want to play 2B, either, but I assume there's less hate for him actually being on public record about that. Interestingly enough, despite making it public he didn't want to play 2B, the Twins shoved him over there anyway. The entire source of Max Kepler's unwillingness to play center field seems to stem from Gleeman's insider info that Kepler feels like he wears out and breaks down more while playing CF consistently. Kepler, like pretty much all players, prefers to play a static position. I have never seen another source or a single comment from Kepler in regard to him playing CF nor have I ever found a source where Kepler refused or resisted a push to play CF. Of course we never see Kepler in CF anymore, but that undoubtedly has a lot more to do with Kepler not being the speedy runner he was at age 25 anymore. It's been more than a year or two since Kepler had the speed which is really necessary to cover CF effectively so it feels unlikely the Twins would want him to cover CF anyway. Kepler last posted a sprint speed of 28.0 (which is about the bare minimum for a CF'er) or higher in 2020, and right about where Austin Martin runs. These days, Kepler's sprint speeds are under even 27ft/sec, which is below average for even a corner outfielder. Max Kepler has been a solid starter for the Twins for a long time. He hasn't been an inconsistent producer, either. Outside of 1 year (2019), Kepler has never produced less than 1.6 fWAR or more than 2.8 fWAR in any full MLB season during his career, though he certainly looks like a guy in the twilight of his MLB experience. He's basically been a league average-ish bat with great corner OF defense almost every year, but he's clearly in decline at this point. No longer a speedy or plus defensive player, it all comes down to his bat, which isn't a plus at Target Field at least. Not sure why the Twins weren't able to move him over the past two seasons, when they should have been looking to move him, but this should be his last year in a Twins uniform. He's been a good player on a franchise which has historically been a farm team for larger market teams. I'm sure he'll find a 1 year $6-8MM deal somewhere around the league at this point. Maybe a bit more if his bat heats up to end the season.

Kyle Farmer has played 4 complete games at 1B in his entire MLB career, all of them in 2019. He's not a first baseman. The ball should have been caught, but even if it wasn't, no way that ball should have gotten past him from the view I saw. Miranda hasn't played much 1B this year, but he's got a dozen or so games there this year. He couldn't move to 1B because he was a DH so the pitcher would have to bat, and that could have meant pulling Ober after 6 innings for a pinch hitter if the Twins got a couple base runners in the top of the 7th. Julien has a handful of games at 1B in AAA this year, but he wasn't available to move to 1B because Baldelli pulled him for Castro who struck out for Julien. When you don't have any available 1B depth on the roster so why do you pinch hit? Baldelli's call to replace Ober makes no sense to me. His average velocity wasn't really falling off with his slowest fastballs coming in the 3rd and 5th innings. He was only at 84 pitches and he was totally in control of the Royals' lineup. When you have a pitcher dominating like that, you do not pull them unless there is an injury concern (velocity dropping or exceeding pitch count limit where you expect they should be tired). Relying on what has been a very shaky bullpen in a close game against a divisional rival in a playoff chase vs. a pitcher who is absolutely cruising? Nonsense.

I seem to constantly see comments from people who are advocates for stronger defense praising Carlos Santana and Christian Vazquez. Two balls bounced off the glove of Vazquez this game. A pick off bounces off the glove of Santana. All of them are "throwing errors." I guarantee you those are all "fielding errors" if the ball came off a bat and not a throwing hand. It seems to be my "eye test" which has me feeling like Santana and Vazquez get the benefit of not needing to catch balls that hit their gloves, and especially for Santana, he'll never come off 1B to prevent a ball from sailing wide. He lets the throws sail wide because it doesn't impact his defensive numbers, and the runner advances to 2B on the "throwing error." Vazquez was trying to catch runners stealing 2nd when a base runner was on 3rd seemingly time and again only to allow runs to score. I really don't see the elite defense other people do.

Because ownership was expected to make a knee jerk 180* reversal on how they want to fund the franchise? The Correa signing is how teams win World Series'

The Twins have $5MM more budget to work with if Santana isn't part of the roster. If they don't bring in Margot and instead work with Austin Martin, oh, that's $9MM. What do the Twins do when Lewis goes down, then? Castro and Farmer. The front office performed horribly this offseason. Horribly.

I think Rodriguez could potentially break camp with the Twins out of Spring Training next year at the earliest. Minnesota desperately needs a center fielder.

Sounds like the Twins are kind of cramming 2B down Lewis' throat. https://www.mlb.com/news/royce-lewis-gives-twins-second-base-depth Very well run franchise.

Does not require spending. My offseason plan had the Twins trading assets to Boston to get Jarren Duran, my backup was Wilyer Abreu. Falvey had anywhere from $20-40MM of salary to spend depending on how he handled the offseason. He got caught sleeping behind the wheel yet again, let the buyers fill their baskets and there was no demand left for guys he should have moved, and no payroll capacity left for positions he needed to fill.

I mean, who could possibly anticipate Buxton not putting in a 150 games?

It's always interesting watching how people explain phenomenon. Vazquez is a poor hitter who had even worse luck out of the gate. His luck is reversing. It's not like he's hitting balls harder or something. The "toe tap" might have helped a little, but it hasn't changed him. Jeffers is an average hitter who had things really go his way out of the gate. He's definitely changed his approach in a manner similar to Larnach. Swinging more than ever has cost him a 30% reduction in walks, but Jeffers is making dramatically more contact high in the zone. Overall, he's an improved hitter.

They really do. Some of the best teams in MLB have suffered far worse than the Twins in terms of injuries this year.

LOL, dude hasn't played a single at bat in AA in 3 months, where he only has 167 PA anyway.

He absolutely needs to show the power. An article earlier this year was praising his exit velocity which maxed at like 106? Impressive for a high school draft pick for sure, but Jenkins' body was hardly "high school" sized, and not really up to MLB standards. It's clear Jenkins has adopted a much more aggressive approach at the plate in high A as his BB rate has evaporated. I think we're seeing the flashes of his potential as he tries to hone his game before final polishing. Hopefully, as he moves forward he'll better learn his swing/take profile, but I'm really happy with what I'm seeing right now. A far more impressive prospect than he was a couple months ago in my eyes.

https://www.dior.com/en_us/fashion/couture-boutique-advantages I think we're past 30 days. Do you have the receipt?

In the AL Central of years past? 153.

Side note, he's going to have to learn he cannot carry the team. The guy needs to learn his limits as a human. I think that pertains to him in the field and at the plate. I don't think he's totally bought into that yet. Did a heck of a job last year in the playoffs, despite his results vs Houston not being stellar, he was one of 2 hitters who actually made the Astros pitchers throw strikes (Correa, Lewis). The rest of the Twins hitters swung at anything and everything.

Give him plate appearances. Keep him in a routine instead of telling him to come ready to play catcher. Or hot dog vendor. or 2B. or RF. or pitching coach or ball boy.

Sounds like Correa is going to need to get some custom shoes/orthotics and work on his preparation going forward to avoid this type of injury now that he knows he's susceptible to it. Correa has delivered 3.6 fWAR so far this year. Maybe has an outside shot at 4.0 WAR on the year, which isn't far off from what the Twins expected when they signed him. There were significant injury limitations for Correa in years prior to him signing with Minnesota in 2022. I'm not sure what the Twins' strategy is on Correa, but I'd be willing to bet they're driving the slow treatment process, not Correa. If they asked him to speed it up and say, I think this is as good as we're going to be able to get it this year and we can't risk missing the playoffs, I'd bet money Correa would be in St. Paul the next day. Buxton is an 80 game a year player. I don't understand why people are acting surprised. Like, at all. This is what happens with Buxton. He's a 10 year veteran who has played more than 92 games at the MLB level only once in his 10 year career (7 years ago in his age 23 season). Everything over 80 games is gravy. Everything over 100 games should be looked at as a career year going forward. Anything over 120 games would be an outright miracle. This is why it was critical the Twins acquire (and always have) a starting caliber center fielder option on the roster to back Buxton up. They didn't do that, and the team is suffering as a result.

First of all, both the Mets and the Giants still wanted him, they just wanted to use the medical evaluation as a way to reduce his price. The Twins got Correa at the reduced price.

Either that or Farmer has photos of wild parties attended by Falvey and Bauer together...

It's unbelievably easy to be unimpressed. Since the Twins were arguably the worst team in all of baseball from 2011-2016 results wise so being "better" by that metric is a virtually non-existent bar. In other ways, I'm not sure how you'd quantify an advancement. Both Smith and Ryan were better in drafting and developing valuable players for the Twins. Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Dozier, Berrios, Rogers all of them All Stars as Twins. Falvey inherited all that talent, plus other valuable roster pieces that had been drafted and developed like Kepler, Garver, and Gibson. On Falvey's side.... nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Not a single All Star Player ever drafted or signed out of the international market by Falvey. Ever. Unless you're talking about guys he traded away like Rooker. Falvey lived off the cushion he was given. Then there's payroll which expanded greatly under Falvey's regime. If Terry Ryan had been given an extra $50MM to spend, do you think he might have been able to field a better team in 2016? How about the farm system rank? To start 2016, the Twins had an absolutely elite farm system. For 2015-2016, ranked in the top 5 or 10. Where do we sit today? Middle of the pack after trudging along in the bottom 10 recently. Dramatically expanded payroll. Lower ranked farm. Not one single All Star drafted and developed in 8 years. One playoff series win. One season with more than 87 wins. Again, color me unimpressed.

Personally, I think the Twins typically don't spend on bullpen arms because they feel it's the worst return on investment. I've also long held the belief Falvey can't focus on priorities and gets distracted by "shiny things." There's just no money left after he's done signing 37 platoon bats and utility guys. It'll be interesting to see what happens starting in 2026 as Jax and Duran are likely going to start getting very expensive. Next year, they'll probably be in that $3-5MM range each as Arb 1, and the Twins were willing to pay that kinda scratch to Thielbar.