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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    We've missed the excitement, electricity, leadership and inspiration he brings to the game. He makes the game fun to watch, and he inspires fans and teammates to believe. He's a true face of the franchise type of guy and the only player who has the kind of charisma to be the new favorite player in team history next to Kirby Puckett. It's a huge weight/opportunity. I haven't been as excited about a player since the good 'ol days. If Lewis continues to play like he did last year, he's a potential MVP and national celebrity.
  2. bean5302
    The Twins bullpen has been as billed IMHO. Despite significant time losses by Duran and Stewart, The overall value of the bullpen isn't my focus. It's the top 3-4 arms since those are the guys you typically see when the game is on the line and Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran and Jorge Alcala make for an outstanding unit at this point.
  3. bean5302
    Why do you feel Canterino's stuff is so great? He's got virtually no time above the low minors.
  4. bean5302
    Tom Kelly was a fundamentals guy, and I think there were far, far more fundamentals managers back in the day. Pitchers forgetting to cover 1B or dropping balls was less common in 1990 than 2020. I think that's worth considering.
  5. bean5302
    I think you might be slightly biased, lol. That said, defense at 1B doesn't typically matter much because the range of defensive value isn't usually super wide due to the lack of different physical skills needed to play the position. The assumption for 1B is maybe like -8 to +7 or so, no matter who you put there. Having a guy who can't catch balls at 1B would be a problem so there's something which would matter, but 25-30pts of OPS = 10 runs or so. A lousy 1B with 50 OPS higher would still be a better play than a great first baseman. So sticking Carlos Correa at 1B vs. Carlos Santana would potentially have a marginal improvement in fielding statistics. Defense at SS especially, and 2B and 3B has a tendency to stand out more because those positions require more skills. Arm strength, reaction time and acceleration are all components in the other infield positions and each additional skill means a potentially wider and wider gap between good and bad defense. Put a lousy 1B at SS and you'd literally probably see -40, but the very best SS might be +15. Carlos Santana adds marginal value over Jose Miranda or Alex Kirilloff defensively. Whoever has the better bat is the better play, given no additional holes in the lineup to fill.
  6. bean5302
    Why are you guys feeding the troll?
  7. bean5302
    Yes. They've beaten the Royals in 2 series. They've taken series' from other teams who were over .500 at the time as well, like the Red Sox (now .500). Side note, winning a lot series' against opponents over .500 isn't all that common. Falvey won't be hesitant since the front office will be swept out end of year if the Twins fail to make the playoffs.
  8. bean5302
    It's an interesting article, and a specific thing I've thought about. The Twins have a few errors which have resulted from pitchers not catching or throwing the ball to first base this year. Every set of hands involved in the play is an increased risk of error from my standpoint. 1B more likely to run the ball back to first base rather than risk a toss/catch may have better results.
  9. bean5302
    I doubt Brooks Lee has more trade value than Jose Miranda right now. Lee and Gonzalez is definitely not getting it done. You'd have to toss in Festa at least. The Marlins aren't going to cash out on a pitcher without at least one quality pitching prospect in return.
  10. bean5302
    Interesting timing for this forum after a recent topic about the debate in reinstating Pete Rose and Joe Jackson. To be honest, this one feels a lot more like a formality in the investigation prior to the lifetime ban hammer incoming. Guess Marcano may not have been expected to have a sure fire notable MLB career, but he's probably headed to a foreign baseball league in the near future. Major League Baseball is currently investigating Marcano (knee) for a violation of the sport's gambling policy, which could result in a lifetime ban, Jared Diamond and Lindsey Adler of The Wall Street Journal Report report. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40271458/sources-padres-tucupita-marcano-faces-mlb-ban-betting
  11. bean5302
    Well, if Falvey hadn't burned $20MM of payroll on platoon/utility guys, he would have been able to bring in a front line starter. In regard to Luzardo, it's tough to say what he's worth. Probably about a surplus value of $50-60MM, which is a step over Berrios because of the extra control. Festa + Gonzalez + either Miranda or Julien probably gets it done. Also consider the Twins can expect to pack on double digits in the millions of salary next year and the year after.
  12. bean5302
    It's just two starts at AA and the hitters are making really poor contact against Morris. Either hitters will miss by a hair more and strike out or make contact hair better and crush some baseballs. Either way, we'll probably know more in 2-3 more games with Morris on the mound in the high minors.
  13. bean5302
    Pretty tough to hold a 5.1 inning performance against a guy (Spencer Bengard) as not being a "start" considering Bengard was pitching in the first inning on normal rest. Zebby Matthews was definitely the right call here. Let's hope he keeps it up at AA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in AAA by the end of the year if he keeps dealing like this. He'll certainly pass David Festa on my Twins prospect list if he does. Morris is getting results, but it's tough to believe in his 4.5 K/9 at AA over the past couple games. The batted ball data says tons of grounders and pop ups so the batters might just be getting lucky touching a piece of Morris' pitches, and if that's the case, the K's might tick up a bit to a belief worthy level.
  14. bean5302
    Because Lewis is the likely face of the franchise and best player on the Minnesota Twins who has earned a static position. It's uncommon to shift around super stars for average players. Also, Miranda is not a good third baseman not only due to his limited range, but a weak arm.
  15. bean5302
    Eeles is an interesting prospect for sure. He was pretty successful in Indy league baseball after being overlooked in college. I'd suspect the Twins will be moving him up rapidly given his lack of pedigree and age. I'm a little surprised they started him off so low as Indy leagues like American Association would be at A+/AA level IMHO. Several former fringe-y MLB guys and players who made it to AAA on Eeles' Chicago Dogs team last year. Nice to see Wallner's bat waking up. Last 10 games: .235/.381/.677 OPS 1.058, great, but more importantly, the 16.7% BB vs. 21.4% K rate is the sign I've been looking for. Seems he's out of his own head at this point. I hope it continues and he's learned something through this adversity. If he did, I think he'll be an All Star caliber player going forward. If he hasn't learned the mental toughness he'll need, I expect he'll be a fringe guy.
  16. bean5302
    Yeah, Miranda at the keystone would probably be a disaster. Can't figure the Twins would be nuts like that, haha.
  17. bean5302
    I absolutely would have demoted Kirilloff since I don't think he has a future in MLB. He's a AAAA guy who has an option and will be Arb2 non-tender material at the end of the year. I guess Falvey is desperate with Kirilloff, and the hope he can actually reproduce last year's aberration performance at the plate against RHP. I guess it could pay dividends in a trade deadline move if another team buys in on Kirilloff so we can dump him? I suppose Wallner is finally heating up in AAA (maybe he got over his mental yips at the plate?). It'll be interesting to see how long Kirilloff's leash is. Julien's batting average being .190 over the recent games doesn't bother me a ton. He's always going to be a low AVG guy because he strikes out 30-35% of the time. That was his MO last year, it'll always be his MO. You're talking about a guy who is still sporting a league average bat at wRC+ 99. There's just nothing left for him to prove in the minors. Either he's MLB caliber or he's not, and that's something he has to prove at the MLB level. Having a rough month happens to hitters, especially high K guys. Brooks Lee!!!! OMG Brooks Lee!!!! is a non-issue here. He's been in Rookie ball and Low A rehabbing, but I expect he'll be in St. Paul soon. He couldn't hold his own in AAA last year and he needs at least a couple months at the AAA level to prove he's legit... unless he's Royce Lewis out of the blue in 2022. Pushing Julien down to 2B in St. Paul means Brooks Lee probably doesn't get reps there.
  18. bean5302
    Billionaires are basically corporations for this conversation as owners operating "hands on" with MLB franchises is rare as it's not their typical expertise and MLB franchises are major companies on their own. Long term ROI (beyond 10 years) isn't the primary interest of a typical large corporation (absolutely any publicly held corporation) operating in recent history. Major corporations look at the following items: Current year earnings, 3 year earnings, 5 year earnings, 10 year earnings, 20/lifespan earnings for products/departments. Significant losses in the current year are extremely unfavorable (I cannot emphasize this enough), but they can in some circumstances be offset by the promise of enormous revenues which might help shore up underperforming branches of the company or ensure the company's viability in the next few years. It's a balance. 3 year is meh, 5 year is very important and 10 year is critical. Basically, executives will absolutely not accept losses in 3 or 5 years time. Beyond 10 years is nice and all that, but the executives won't be at the company anymore by that point so they don't care much. It's just about having some semblance of fiscal responsibility. The reason 5 and 10 years are so important is what's when a lot of executives will be planning on leaving the company, and they want that company stock to be valuable when they check out. I should note, baseball franchises operate a little differently, but the guidelines "billionaires" set for operating major corporations like the Minnesota Twins are going to be based on the owner's knowledge in running businesses. Losses for more than a year or two are just not going to happen unless the owner is chasing a dream before death (Padres recently, Tigers a decade ago, Athletics in the early 90s)
  19. bean5302
    Yes, based on the garbage metrics you're using. fWAR is junk if you're comparing several years for a pitcher. It's best used for explaining anomaly performances or predicting future performances. It's not based on what actually happened. Comparing multiple years of performances means you're comparing Lopez (who played all 3 years) to pitchers who left MLB or were rookies or were hurt. It's not apples to apples. If Lopez missed the rest of this season due to injury, would he then become a #4 or #5 pitcher if I selected 2023-2024 as the range of comparison where he was hurt? In any given year, Lopez's ACTUAL results place him in the 40-45 range for value which includes accumulated value of pitchers who've been injured or played less than Lopez has. On the mound, he gives the Twins performances typically on par with low end #2s.
  20. bean5302
    A couple weeks ago people were lamenting the fact Falvey even brought Castro back after an ice cold start to the season; oh how things have turned. Castro owns an xwOBA of .324 right now. Solid enough, a little better than league average, and right in line with his actual production last year so it seems reasonable to expect Castro to continue bringing a decent bat to the table. A good pickup after Detroit non-tendered him. He's been a butcher in CF which is a real shame because that's where he'd add the most value if his instincts were better. The Twins desperately need a 4th outfielder who can cover it in Buxton's frequent absences. As far as the future goes, if Castro puts up a 3+ WAR campaign, we can expect his arbitration costs are going to get pretty steep for a utility guy starting this offseason. He's not a superstar, but he looks to be a solid every day player.
  21. bean5302
    Yep. Cost controlled young pitching grows on trees around here.
  22. bean5302
    Like I said. 40-45 3 WAR pitchers per year. Lopez has been a 3 WAR pitcher recently.
  23. bean5302
    Sure, the Twins could make some stuff up. Of course, all teams in MLB were just put on notice regarding the Phantom IL trend. The Phantom IL debacle with the Mets just got their GM banned from baseball for a year.
  24. bean5302
    Using bWAR, Lopez has 12.2 WAR in his career, spanning roughly 6 seasons. 2 WAR pitchers are commonplace. There were about 75 of them last year. Over the past 3 seasons, Lopez has been roughly a 3 WAR pitcher. About 40-45 of those per year or so.
  25. bean5302
    It's an obvious choice of Kirilloff to me. No defensive value. Limited value at the plate. Never had a good season in his entire career. 2021 = 0.3 fWAR (Scrub) 2022 = (0.5) fWAR (AA player caliber) 2023 = 0.6 fWAR (Scrub) 2024 = 0.1 fWAR (Scrub) Not sure how much more people need to see of Kirilloff to come to the conclusion he's a bust, but I've seen plenty. In fact, if the season ended today, I'd non-tender him.
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