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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    We've had this discussion before. You've seen 10 highlight plays from Keirsey. He has 200 chances a year, and the average CF in his league turns way more of those chances into outs than Keirsey does. You're free to your eye test opinion based on the highlight reels, but since I don't see enough every day playing by Keirsey and I can't estimate foot speed on a TV screen, I'll trust the 1,000s of data points on how well Keirsey does vs. his peers.
  2. bean5302
    Castro is going to probably make $6MM if the Twins tender him a contract. I'm not sure where you get "plus defender in left field" though? He's a career 3.6 UZR/150 guy in left field, -1 OAA, -7 Total Zone/yr, 0 DRS/yr. He's been unplayably bad in center field. His career marks at SS are pretty rough, but a lot of that was his first couple years. He's been decent enough there for the past few years. I suspect Castro would have taken a significant step forward in defensive value at any position if he wasn't deployed in a utility fashion. Unfortunately, he's taken a big step back in speed at least based on Statcast's sprint speed. For his career, he's hovered around 28.5, but this year he's dropped to 27.9 (not suited for CF). This bears itself out in his sprints to 1B. Castro is getting a better jump out of the hole at the plate than ever, but he's losing ground against his younger self down the base line. For what it's worth, Castro's base running while not trying to steal seems to be very good this year. He's on pace to hit 4.2 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR having played in every single game this year so far on the back of a recent huge surge at the plate. We'll have to see how the rest of the year treats Castro and who the GM is at the end of the year when Falvey's contract runs out.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah, I messed that up not quoting. I use a browser without cookies so TD logs me out and I lose posts from time to time so I sometimes forget to requote. :)
  4. bean5302
    ...you think they don't? They absolutely, 100%, guaranteed rank their players one way or the other. A player's trade value depends greatly on their rankings. They may not rank them in order of 1-20 or whatever, but they definitely rank them because MiLB prospects are liquid team assets, plain and simple.
  5. bean5302
    Not to mention Austin Martin has superior fielding metrics to Keirsey at CF in the minors. Yes. The Austin Martin who has been shredded for his defensive shortcomings. The expectation Keirsey (who was among the worst CF's in the league last year in terms of RF/9) will be a good CF at the MLB level is highly dubious.
  6. bean5302
    I stick by my assessment of the division. Twins are the favorites, but the Royals have moved into a dangerous position. Their rotation appears ultra elite. Tough to make up ground on a team which is turning it over to the bullpen having allowed 2 or fewer earned runs 36 of 49 starts (73%) for their top 5 starters... Cleveland will implode. They're off to an epic start for sure, but their starters are very poor. 26th in FIP this year. Terrible starters with an epic bullpen means a worn down bullpen that falls apart. We've seen it here in Twinsland. Even their bullpen has an xFIP 0.50 higher than ERA. Kwan (hurt) and Fry are both 50pts ahead of their xwOBA and Ramirez is 100pts over. I don't think their bats will keep up, and with their starters being rough and a bullpen seeming destined to break down from over use, I just don't believe the Guardians are legitimate at all. For the Royals, Witt, Jr.'s now a legit MVP threat. Their only other great hitter is... Salvador Perez???? Who saw that coming? Not me. He's never been good at the plate for a full season before so I'm not sure what's in the water that's causing the Royals stadium to start spalling concrete, but maybe Perez is drinking it?
  7. bean5302
    The obsession is this is a competitive game. The best and highest ranked players get more playing time. They get more fanfare. They get more compensation. They get more opportunities to succeed if they initially fail.
  8. bean5302
    I don't have a problem with DaShawn Keirsey getting the call as he might be a legitimate 4th outfielder and the Twins do not have one right now, but I'm not sure he's a good fit. I don't think it's likely he gets much playing time as a LHB who is best used as a Buxton fill in as I don't have confidence in Keirsey hitting the ball better than the other lefties. LF Larnach (LHB) CF Buxton (RHB) RF Kepler (LHB) UO Margot (RHB) UO Castro (SHB)
  9. bean5302
    Correa was durable last year as well. The ONLY Twins player on the entire team to qualify with 135 games and 580 (504 required) plate appearances. Correa had a short stint on the IL this year for an unusual injury, and he's qualified his last 4 seasons before this one. I expect he'll qualify again this year as one of the most durable players in MLB at this point. For all his skills at SS, and the unlimited accolades on Twins sites, metrics universally dislike his fielding. RF/9, UZR, DRS, OAA, even Total Zone runs... they're all average-ish to negative since joining the Twins. Correa makes spectacular plays when he can get to the ball, but his range is poor. He's probably more Derek Jeter than Ozzie Smith. That said, he's obviously the kind of highly skilled veteran who is perfect to anchor the Twins infield. Correa is about worth his pay at the conventional $8MM per expected WAR rate. He even earned it last year based on his playoff performance alone.
  10. bean5302
    Wait, you're comparing Wallner to Gallo, yes? Wallner doesn't play 1B. When you look at Gallo in the OF, the loss of his speed made him a liability. There's a reason you can't find any OF metrics for Gallo this year. Washington hasn't wanted to see him in the OF.
  11. bean5302
    What does... "really have to hit" mean? Miranda's wRC+ 115 right now would probably translate to 2 WAR at 1B over a full season. For the 27 players in MLB with 250+ PA at first base last year, Miranda's wRC+ 115 would be tied for 12th and at 2.0 WAR, he'd would have been 9th. He costs the MLB minimum. Here are the players who put up more than 2.0 fWAR at 1B last year. Freddie Freeman 7.8 fWAR $27MM (6yrs $162MM) Matt Olson 6.5 fWAR $22MM (8yrs $168MM) Yandy Diaz 4.3 fWAR $8MM (3yrs $24MM avoid arbitration) Christian Walker 3.9 fWAR $10.9MM (avoid arb 3) Paul Goldschmidt 3.1 fWAR $26MM (5yrs $130MM) Pete Alonso 3.0 fWAR $20.5MM (avoid arb 4, turned down 7yrs $158MM) Josh Naylor 3.0 fWAR $8.5MM (avoid arb 3) Nathaniel Lowe 2.5 fWAR $7.5MM (avoid arb 2) Ryan Noda 2.4 fWAR $700k (Pre-arb) On average, they make $14.7MM this year. 4 will have a long term contract larger than Buxton's under their belt this time next year. All but one will earn more than $10MM next year.
  12. bean5302
    College SS's. First round picks. Switch hitters. Profile as near MLB ready. Limited athleticism expected to probably push both off SS Mediocre power. Lauded hit tools. Twins fans lost their mind in the hype machines which told them what they wanted to hear. MLB #7 https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2022, CBS #7 https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-mock-draft-orioles-take-termarr-johnson-with-no-1-pick-kumar-rocker-to-padres/ Fangraphs #8 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-mock-draft/ Let's take a look at some Baseball America and Keith Law pre-draft reviews: Player 1 Player 2 First appearances over AA through first two seasons (cup of coffee + long season) Player 1 - 307 PA .294/.365/.473 OPS .839 wRC+ 119, 10.1% BB, 16.0% K Player 2 - 319 PA .278/.382/.415 OPS .797 wRC+ 130, 11.8% BB, 19.5% K
  13. bean5302
    Gallo can't field anymore. It's not 2020 anymore. He's a butcher out there.
  14. bean5302
    Cory Lewis doesn't have that "brand recognition" in part due to being a late rounder, and he doesn't have any experience outside the low minors so I suspect people have forgotten about him a bit. Fangraphs has him ranked at org #23 for 2023. Pretty low since Fangraphs is definitely in love with "velo" and Lewis' 90-92mph fastball isn't going to tick their boxes. Add in the lost time due to injury and he's got quite a bit to prove in the higher minors. Canterino probably collapsed on the list because it's literally been 5 years since he was healthy. He's 26, has only 34 innings in his career above the low minors where he was struggling with walks. It's unrealistic to think Canterino could be stretched into a full starter role before 2026 even if he were healthy for the first time since 2019.
  15. bean5302
    Brooks Lee already better than Edouard Julien, I see. I mean, worth considering Julien didn't already have major back issues at age 23, and he didn't struggle at AAA. Personally, I view Brooks Lee as a slightly better version of former Twins first rounder and top prospect, Levi Michael at the moment.
  16. bean5302
    An averageish defender at 1B is a quality MLB regular at wRC+ 115. I think that's probably where Miranda's going to sit.
  17. bean5302
    I don't think the players meeting makes a difference at all, and it increasingly feels like the Twins have lost sight of the forest for the trees. Are the pitch calls coming from the bench? That's would be some next level micromanagement.
  18. bean5302
    Hindsight is where all the data is so criticism is going to be hindsight driven. A lot of comments in the forums which essentially put Baldelli or Falvey or whomever in the same place as me or you or any other random fan expecting their level of knowledge is on par with ours. "I can't fault Falvey for xyz" stuff or defending Baldelli because it's up to the players to execute. I would really hope the front office of the Twins is way more knowledgeable than me or any other fan on this site. They make millions of dollars a year to be more knowledgeable, but it often seems their logic/knowledge defies convention wisdom. It's pretty fair to hold the front office and managers accountable for what goes wrong, I'd say.
  19. bean5302
    If you're absolutely desperate to try to defend a bad position, sure.
  20. bean5302
    I was responding to Fire Dan Gladden's comment about the Pohlad's commitment. You jumped in.
  21. bean5302
    Feel free to tell me the specific amount of money the Pohlads should have demanded Falvey spend. I created a Dodgers-like payroll for you... I'd imagine you're not a huge fan of it.
  22. bean5302
    I don't know as I consider it disrespectful. Not sure how to rank the Japanese leagues vs. MiLB. If you consider it AAA level, I think it's fair to consider those guys to be rookies. There's a pretty significant shift in competition level between Japan and Korean leagues to MLB, and many of the players can't make it work. For every Imanaga, there's a Nishioka. Most players take 3-5 professional years to make it through the minor leagues, and Japanese players don't make much more than high end draft picks/prospects in the minors. For example, last year's #30 pick made 8x more money than the average Japanese league player's yearly salary. Skenes' signing bonus was double the highest paid position player in Japan. I think Japanese league players are fair to call "rookies" when they first come to MLB, even if they are very high end "prospects" before that.
  23. bean5302
    Jose Miranda is a solid every day starting position player. The kind of 2.0-3.0 WAR guy who forms the backbone of a team depending on whether or not you have him at 1B or 3B. Unfortunately, the Twins brought in Carlos Santana and he's solidly entrenched at 1B. I expect Kirilloff to be demoted, and Miranda to take over at DH even though I'd prefer to see Santana moved to a DH/bench role while Miranda gets every day time at 1B.
  24. bean5302
    An average, every day position player should produce 2.5 WAR for a good team. Gomez was 2.7 fWAR vs 2.1 bWAR. Fangraphs had Gomez's defense better than Baseball Reference. Offensively, terrible. Defensively, exceptional in an premium defensive position. The difference between a 5-6 WAR full season Buxton and a 2-3 WAR full season Gomez is all bat.
  25. bean5302
    Yeah! Stupid Pohlads spending less than the Dodgers! It's all their fault. If only we could have signed more big names like Blake Snell (11.98 ERA), Jordan Montgomery (4.98 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (hasn't pitched)! We could have shored up our outfield with Cody Bellinger, and made a trade for a big money guy like Kris Bryant! Yeahhhh!!!! Now that's a $275MM roster we could be proud of!
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