bean5302

Look, it's important to rest guys to prevent them from wearing down... except sometimes Baldelli's macro is broken and keeps repeating the same bullpen arms. LOL

In terms of drafting pipeline, Griffin Jax was drafted by Terry Ryan's front office in 2016 @Linus.

I don't think the Twins were really in the running for any of these shortstops in 2022, even if they had initial interest. As I recall, Boras called the Twins essentially out of the blue and proposed the pillow contract to probably shocked Derek Falvey. 2022 Contract Predictions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html Carlos Correa = 10yrs $320MM, Actual = 3yrs $105MM including 2 player options. 1yr $35MM final. Corey Seagar = 10yrs $305MM. Actual = 10yrs $325MM Marcus Semien = 6yrs $138MM. Actual = 7yrs $175MM Trevor Story = 6yrs $126MM. Actual = 6yrs $140MM Javier Baez = 5yrs $100MM. Actual = 6yrs $140MM Into 2023, I think the Twins were confident in Royce Lewis, but they really loved Correa in making him a 10 year $285MM offer, but they of course, knew it wasn't going to get him so it's a bit moot. Otherwise, I don't think the Twins were probably that active in pursuing shortstops legitimately. 2023 Contract Predictions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html Carlos Correa = 9yrs $288MM, Actual 13yrs $350MM, psych!, 12yrs $315MM, psych!!!!, 6yrs $200MM + 4 years $80MM vesting Trea Turner = 8yrs $268MM, Actual 11yrs $300MM Xander Boegarts = 7yrs $189MM, Actual 11yrs $280MM Dansby Swanson = 7yrs $154MM, Actual 7yrs $177MM In the case of every single free agent shortstop in both years, except Carlos Correa in both years, the final contract was larger than predicted. The likeliest Twins targets were on the shorter, lower AAV target range, but they went for far higher than expected. Story and Baez in particular have been disaster contracts. The Twins really shocked the MLB world when they signed Correa the first time to the pillow deal, but they left the world completely speechless and flabbergasted when they brought him back on a long term deal, beating out big name large market suitors like the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets in the process. It was absolutely mind boggling, and it made it very clear that Correa loved playing for the Twins. I'm quite convinced this would not have happened for any shortstop not named Carlos Correa given the exact same scenario. Playing the "what if" game, Marcus Semien would have been the best signing at 7yrs $175MM. He certainly could be handling SS given his elite 2B defense, and his WAR production would probably be even a little higher if he was at SS. Plus, the Twins probably wouldn't be too torn up about pushing him off SS to test Royce Lewis there. Semien makes $26MM per year through 2026, with his final year dropping to $20MM. A fair chunk of change cheaper than Correa. Still, it's hard for me to come to the conclusion the Twins didn't wind up with a great deal (and the 2nd best deal) for what amounts to 7yrs $235MM for Carlos Correa, with 4 vesting options at just $80MM more. Without that great deal both times, Correa doesn't land in Minnesota.

You're extending the topic to an overall review of the franchise operated by Falvey.

I think the Twins should have thrown him under the bus a lot harder than they did. The Twins demoted Kirilloff, but he then claimed "injury!" which makes it against MLB rules to demote him. It puts the front office in a messy bind and attracts the attention of the MLBPA and the commissioners office. 1. The injury has the same feel as Joe Ryan's non-injury, injury last year. Pouting because of poor performance so they are "hurt" even though there are no medical signs of a significant injury. 2. Most of us know when our bodies tell us it's time to stop doing something because of pain. Sometimes you can fight through it, but you know when you've hit a wall. Kirilloff is familiar with this issue. Time and time again in his career, and this time he's played through pain until he confessed it (seemingly always as an explanation for a slump). He has experience when he's hit that wall. Now, he's did one of two things: either he lent himself an excuse for poor performance rather than facing his problems or he actively hid the injury from teammates and coaches when the Twins are fighting for a playoff spot. No matter how you look at it, it's a irresponsible decision which put management under a magnifying glass, created a bit of a roster crunch, and it involved poor communication. I'd be surprised if reporting injuries wasn't something the management have doggedly talked about to the players. The fact the Twins have undoubtedly talked to their players about it, especially after Joe Ryan's mystery tightness last year, along with the way Kirilloff went about reporting the injury AFTER the demotion is the reason Baldelli would admonish the conduct of Kirilloff.

I'm well aware they've all been hitting well lately. Their season stats are still poor, and if they remain at the same level they're currently at, both Farmer and Margot will be DFA candidates because the hot streak will have come to an end.

Yeah, Bailey Ober, #4 starter. Same as Terry Ryan (Jose Berrios) or Bill Smith (Kyle Gibson) produced in less drafting years, with Falvey now overseeing his 8th MLB draft. Falvey's been here quite a long time now. Winder hasn't been a rotation candidate in 2 years and Varland hasn't been serviceable in the rotation over his 103 innings with a 5.30 ERA. 5.30 ERA with opponents slugging .512 off him is not fringe, it's unplayable. He has looked potentially good out of the bullpen, though. Late though it is, Simeon Woods-Richardson is shaping up nicely, but that's not "draft" related, and that's what this article is about. Drafting for a pipeline. Falvey's results on the Minnesota Twins roster from drafting pitchers has been very poor as of right now. That said, it does look like after years of trying, he may finally have built himself a pipeline that reaches all the way to the big show. Guys like Balazovic and Winder were sure fire bets, too, though.

Yeah. It starts with character, and it ends with flaw.

Before all the back patting, MiLB performances don't win MLB championships. Festa is literally the only prospect mentioned who's actually looked potentially good as a starter in AAA, maybe projectable into an MLB rotation. He's had some big hiccups with control, but there's been plenty to be impressed with in his progress this year. Varland's 2 sparkly appearances recently come with more loud contact, and that's some of the same stuff he struggled with previously as a starter. I don't think he'll be serviceable in an MLB rotation.

6 $50MM+ 2B contracts for active players in MLB right now. Agreed utility players don't usually get paid. I suppose that's one upside for "positional flexibilty" for the Twins. They get to underpay their players.

If they're still playing so poorly their small contracts can't be moved, it's DFA time.

Two of the most important jobs for a front office is to draft and develop talent. Drafting is no different than trading for players. In essence, the Twins trade their draft pick slot back to MLB for a player. Critical evaluation of the drafting and development success for Falvey is warranted. It would be totally stunning if ownership didn't look at draft successes and failures. In that regard, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee may ultimately save Falvey's job because up until Lewis' shocking turnaround in 2022, things looked awfully grim for Falvey in the draft success rate on high rounders. Criticism of Prielipp as a choice is 100% warranted. Canterino was a workhorse in college so seeing him fall apart physically has been surprising. However, Prielipp was actively rehabbing a major surgery, and didn't pitch at all in 2022, with just 7 innings in 2021. The Twins had very limited ability to see Prielipp's stuff on display, similar to Cavaco. Prielipp may yet turn into something, but I don't consider him a prospect anymore. Top 3 round potential bust picks: Leach, Enlow, Cavaco, Canterino, Sabato, Soularie, Miller, Hajjar, Prielipp, Considering Falvey traded away or lost 4 CBB/3rd round picks in trades or signings 2018-2020, the misses on high round picks is more concentrated. Even more so because of the number of prospects with potential or success at the MLB level Falvey has traded away after drafting. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner looked like probable busts until 2022 so turnarounds happen, and the last couple of years of drafting have produced some potentially great players, but it's fair to look at the previous results.

Willi Castro's will probably wind up with a wRC+ 110 type of season again this year. I expect he's probably a plus defender as a full time 2B. Basically, he's what Jorge Polanco was in terms of value. Probably a 3.5 WAR player at the end of this year is my guess. I'd suspect Castro will be closer to the $7MM range than $5MM if he plays at or above that. This Twins' front office has shown a strong affinity for the super utility player. Marwin Gonzalez was kind of the first go-around, Kyle Farmer was expected to fill that role, and Castro really outperformed expectations owning it as the latest so I'm sure the front office is pretty enamored with him. Then again, the only real reason to keep a guy nearing free agency is if you don't have somebody coming up through the system to replace him or they're a franchise cornerstone. The Twins have plenty of highly projectable depth who may well be able to fill Castro's boots for 1/10th the cost. With the Twins competing for a playoff spot, I could see them trading Margot or Farmer should they rebound or DFA'ing them at the deadline if they regress back to early season form. It'd be surprising for the Twins to trade Castro this year, but keeping Castro beyond the end of this season feels wasteful to me right now. Have to see how the year plays out more.

I'd say Mauer's May, 2009 does okay. 23 games. 5/1-5/25 .444/.530/.914 OPS 1.444 wRC+ 267. Even his first 45 games through June 20th. .417/.485/.744 OPS 1.229 wRC+ 219

They do for now, whatever it's worth.

He's MLB's #21 ranked draft prospect, and the 8th highest ranked pitcher by them in the draft. Good chance he'll be around. The Athletic has him going to Houston at #28. on3 has him going to the Dodgers at #23 Bleacher Report as him going to the Phillies at #27 a couple weeks ago.

Lopez's pitches aren't moving nearly as well since his 5/9 start, and he's not locating them as well. The result is crushed meatball salad. The special "Cy Young Favorite" metrics aren't bailing him out this year.

Got it. Old players are better.

Miranda 2024 vs. RHP = .293/.338/.512 OPS .851 wRC+ 141 Miranda 2022 vs. RHP = .265/.331/.390 OPS .721 wRC+ 110 Santana 2024 vs. RHP = .218/.317/.370 OPS .687 wRC+ 100 Santana 2023 vs. RHP = .229/.304/.420 OPS .724 wRC+ 94 Santana 2022 vs. RHP = .178/.288/.366 OPS .655 wRC+ 89 Santana 2021 vs. RHP = .184/.309/.327 OPS .636 wRC+ 75 It worked out... but it was a sketchy call that fits with Rocco's spreadsheet macro management skill. Just because Santana can technically stand in the left batters box doesn't mean he can hit well from there.

Willie Mays was absolutely outstanding, and his "prime" lasted for over a decade. A truly legendary player. I'm not sure why the OP had to take such a combative tone right out of the gate since I can't imagine anybody with a brain is going to discount Mays' heroics. If he were playing in modern times with the kind of value he produced back then, he'd have owned 10 MVP Trophies at the end of his career. Literally in the running for greatest baseball player to ever play the game.

Yeah, I do think it's pretty safe to say Larnach isn't a reliable every day corner outfielder right now. He's been trending down towards league average again, even if he's having different red flags than he used to. His BB rate is down like 25% vs. career average (which offsets some of the value in the enormous 40% K rate decline), but his exit velocities have tapered off recently, along with the barrel rate, and hard hit rates. Those Statcast metrics all look to be around league average over the past 20 games. Larnach's also slow as molasses in January this year so he's not going to be a great defender. Personally, I think the Twins need an at least plausibly proven center fielder, not a corner outfielder. It's possible Emmanuel Rodriguez can fit the bill by the end of the year, though. He can't get back soon enough from that thumb sprain. Until then, even though it's rough watching him out there sometimes, I guess it's Willi Castro when Buxton needs a rest.

I don't know who the most overrated player is in baseball, but Luis Arraez probably isn't him. Arraez's wRC+ 113 is coming with a career worst ISO at the moment, and it's possible that could be the trend now for him, but his max exit velocity is at a career high so it's not like his raw power has evaporated. Just have to wait and see for a player who has typically been worse in the 2nd half if the trend has swapped. Worth noting is Arraez hasn't been a singles hitter any more than Joe Mauer was a singles hitter. Arraez had 43 extra base hits last year, where he ranked as the 16th highest wRC+ of any qualified hitter in MLB, and 40 the year prior where he ranked 30th in MLB at the plate. In terms of how he was valued around the league, Arraez didn't bring back elite prospects. An org #5, #10, #15 type even with the Marlins covering all but a tiny portion his salary ($10.0MM). Arraez is certainly a player teams want on their roster, but it didn't take a big haul to get him.

Did you not say "pick up the pieces"? That's a phrase generally used for something devastating which has shattered a person's life. If that's not what you intended, I misinterpreted your comment, but you no less misinterpreted mine.

In retrospect (I thought Wallner's production days were just lucky blips) think he started to find his swing fairly quickly in what looked like some blips actually started forming a trend. It's hard to trend power hitters like Wallner because they're prone to stretches of boom/bust. Wallner was probably already much more comfortable by May 1, and his results after that period are within the guidelines of noise. Some of his worst "results" stretch in May that drag down his performance actually corresponded to excellent walk rates with low BABIP.

I don't know about that. Results wise, it was rough, but Cavaco was always a high risk/high reward type of player. I think the front office (like some others) certainly got caught up in the helium around the prospect so they wound up reaching for him. Since Cavaco had so little scouting around him, I suppose he was more of an extreme risk than "high risk" and that made him an poor pick due to the imbalance in the risk/reward in retrospect. Hudson Boyd, Matt Bashore, Shooter Hunt, Henry Sanchez. All 1st round guys who never made it higher than A+ in the past 15 years or so. Personally, I'd rather reach for high risk/reward types than settle for low ceiling guys who are deemed low risk.