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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I wasn't cherry picking. I added context. Btw, how's that AAA player who can't help replace Max Kepler, Brooks Lee looking?
  2. bean5302
    It was a pretty nasty hammy pull so the Twins are bringing him along slow to try and prevent any significant aggravation. I was more concerned with his total lack of power for the first 80 or so plate appearances this year, but he's really turned it on lately. I don't think the Twins will keep him in Low-A too long if Jenkins sustains the hot production.
  3. bean5302
    Lewis talked about the injury. https://www.mlb.com/news/royce-lewis-feels-loose-after-injury The doctors warned him of his elevated risk for this type of injury before the season began it seems. The info coming out about it does make me feel better about his future. Lewis: “I don't think we did anything wrong. I think we did everything right,” Lewis said. “I guess I'm just going to have to be here eight or nine hours before the game. Whatever it takes, I'll do it. I'm sure people are going to blurt out 'He's not eating right. He's not doing this.' I've made significant changes. I've spent a lot of money on my body. I've been doing everything I possibly can. If I could think of something I'd do it.” He added -- with a laugh -- that he’d even consider this drastic step: “If someone said, 'Hey, if you smoke cigarettes like Babe Ruth,’ and that'll work, then I'll do that too. I'll do whatever. I'm open to anything.”
  4. bean5302
    1. Jansen - The Red Sox are listening to offers, but Jansen is going to be very expensive for a team who'd be in the playoffs today if the season ended. He's been an elite closer for 15 years and is having a prime like Renaissance this year. Jansen also doesn't like the idea of going to a team like the Twins who employ situational deployments. 2. Cruz - He's not even arbitration eligible until 2026. With 5 years of team control left, what possible reason could a building team have to deal him? Even if the Reds did decide to cash out on a reliever who can be dominant, the cost would be brutal. He was signed out of Indy League ball which is why his age doesn't make sense. 3. Yates - Texas is about to get deGrom, and Mahle back into the rotation, Scherzer just returned and the Astros have appeared soft. 8.0-8.5 GB right now, I guess I could see them selling on a closer at the deadline if they're 10.0 GB at that point, but with 2 months and a suddenly elite rotation to make up ground against a winnable division, it's going to take a big package for Yates. 4. Nardi - Not happening without an overwhelming package. Age 25, not even arb eligible with 5 years of team control left. The Marlins are trying to build, and Nardi is the kind of player they're going to want to hang on to. 5. Garcia - Yep. This is the first pitcher who is absolutely going to be dealt. He's a rental on a team with no hope of the playoffs at this point. Garcia's been excellent, but as noted, the 15 day IL for elbow soreness is lingering. He's supposed to pitch for their AAA club today so it's a good sign, and his MRI showed no damage. He's cheap in terms of salary so the ask is going to be pretty hefty. Think back to the Matt Capps trade where the Twins gave up Wilson Ramos, a top 100 prospect. Though Capps came with an extra year of control, Garcia is going to cost a top 6-10 prospect, if not higher. 6. Mears - The Rockies are not typically sellers and they've got 3 more years of team control over Mears. Aside from that, Mears isn't a great pitcher. He's got a pretty rough track record. Lots of walks, decent K rate, generates absolutely no pop ups. While his FIP is 2.95, the xFIP is 3.82. I just don't think he's a reliever which would be an upgrade. We've got Stewart (maybe?), and Varland in the minors. I still think they're likely our bullpen enhancements.
  5. bean5302
    Wallner is a far superior fielder to Margot, sorry. Margot has been terrible out there and he doesn't have the physical talent to overcome his errant play anymore. UZR/150 LF = -15.6 this year, backed up by -3 OAA in 165 innings. The trend for Margot on UZR/150 is nice and linear, and bad if you're arguing for his defensive prowess. OF overall from 2020-2024 = 9.5, 3.7, (0.2), (7.4), (12.1). Matt Wallner was league average last year in terms of UZR/150 in combined LF and RF as much as people hate on him, DRS is +2 for the year in the OF. OAA isn't so happy with him, but combining the metrics paints a picture of him being about average-ish. He's awkward looking in the field, and he boots a ball now and again, but he's deceptively fast. Fast enough to cover CF if he had the instincts for it, and his arm is a weapon. Margot is likely the worst outfielder on the Twins right now.
  6. bean5302
    xwOBA can be a great metric, but like a lot of metrics, it can be misleading in isolation. Like How Kepler used to have a terrible actual wOBA vs. his expected because of how extreme the shift was deployed (effectively) against him. If a player has extreme batted ball tendencies, defenses will shift accordingly, and the results of those shifts make an impact on actual production. Depending on the stadium in which the player is taking their plate appearances, it can also impact the results. For example, Target Field is a poor stadium for left hander home runs due to the tall right field wall. What would normally be a home run based on exit velocity and launch angle turns into a single or double off the wall at Target Field. That's not really "luck" related. Trevor Larnach hits the snot out of the ball! Ehhhh, not really. Since the beginning of June, Larnach is averaging an exit velocity of 89.0mph, which is just league average. Larnach had a blistering start to the year, and through mid May, he was really crushing it. From that point on, it was a steady trend down which correlated with his performance against breaking balls regressing back to what it used to be. Larnach's changed approach at the plate to be more aggressive was met with an effective corresponding change by pitchers. It's not like Larnach is a bad hitter overall, he's just a league average hitter. Given his 900 plate appearances at the MLB level, I need to see more than a hot 80 plate appearances to convince me much has changed.
  7. bean5302
    Reminds me of a hilarious Colorado Rockies commercial from years ago.
  8. bean5302
    Spencer Bengard FTM (A) - 5 G, 2 GS, 21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 9.43 K/9 (27%), 1.29 BB/9 (4%). Travis Adams WCH (AA) - 4 GS, 22.0 IP, 2.05 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 11.05 K/9 (31%), 2.86 BB/9 (8%) Nice honorable mentions.
  9. bean5302
    I was excited for him to start the season, but that faded as the same size grew. In the first few couple weeks he was back, he was crushing baseballs, but more importantly, he wasn't showing to be weak against his old nemesis, the non-4 seamer pitches. Unfortunately, his results against breaking and offspeed stuff reverted. The Fastball looks insane, but he was at like +30 projected a couple weeks ago. Things look like they're starting to normalize (numbers below projected based on a full season) Pitch Type Pitch % Exp. Pitches 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fastball 28% 448 4 2 0 16 Slider 18% 288 -4 7 2 -4 Changeup 18% 288 -8 -7 -2 -12 Curveball 11% 176 1 -4 -3 -3 Sinker 9% 144 -3 4 2 -3 Cutter 6% 96 -4 -4 5 5 Splitter 5% 80 0 -6 4 0 Other 5% 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A I saw the xwOBA for Larnach, and I dove into it deeper because I like that stat, but it didn't feel quite right to me. I dove into his last couple months for line drive rates, hard hit rates, barrels, average exit velocities, etc. Nothing stood out as particularly above average, and his walks plummeted even harder as a percentage than his K rate did. I guess I'm not sure why the xwOBA is so much above average as a result of that.
  10. bean5302
    Top 10 MLB hitters grow on trees when Matt Wallner discussions start up around here, haha. Trevor Larnach, ooooooo wRC+ 99, 1.2 fWAR 900 PA Alex Kirilloff, swooooonnn wRC+ 100, 0.2 fWAR 900 PA Matt Wallner, pffftt. AAAA. wRC+ 129, 1.6 fWAR, 350 PA How other teams view Matt Wallner is open to debate, but he was more valuable on BaseballTradeValues than Brooks Lee was to start the season. Unfortunately, that site is all paywall now. There was another player in the past couple years who had drawn the fans' ire just like Wallner. His name is Brent Rooker. Currently one of the best hitters in baseball for his second consecutive year, on pace for a 3.6 fWAR DH season, and possibly another All Star appearance. I don't think the Twins will deal Wallner. On his own, he's not going to bring back Zac Gallen or something, though.
  11. bean5302
    Miranda had a bum shoulder last year. The way fans on this site turned on him was shocking considering how he played at age 23, dominating AAA, and 24 putting up a near full season with a wRC+ 117. On the polar opposite end, the dominant position on this site was an endless swoon for Alex Kirilloff. 50% of the player outlook on this site is nothing more than a popularity contest. I'll form my opinions based on data, watching the games, and my own gut instincts.
  12. bean5302
    Varland's track record is plenty long at this point, and he's 26. 5.30 ERA, 5.40 FIP as a starter across 3 years without any peripherals suggesting he's turning a corner. He gives up very loud contact on a regular basis because his pitches don't fool MLB hitters while he's in the rotation. There's a reason the Twins called up Festa instead of Varland (who would have been on 5 days rest, if I remember right). Festa is age 24, and he has 2 MLB caliber pitches. Even if he could put the ball in the general vicinity of where he's aiming (which he can't), starters don't make it with 2 pitches. He's got 2 more years with options left so there's no reason to DFA him or something, but expectations should be tempered by how he's struggled this year in AAA (1/2 his starts are disasters), and how hard he got hit at the MLB level. He's not a young prospect. Larnach is 27, and at 900 plate appearances in his career with the same type of results over and over. He cannot hit breaking and offspeed pitches. People remember a 2 week hot streak for him this year, but he's been struggling for the past 2 months now. He got more aggressive at the plate so his K rate dropped by a bunch, but his walks vanished even harder. In 4 years, he's never produced over 0.8 fWAR, he's never had a season with a wRC+ higher than 108 (this year).
  13. bean5302
    You can feel free to disagree with me, but I've seen all I need to see of who Festa is right now. When you have a one trick pony like Festa who can't even consistently perform well at AAA, then he gets called up and wollop'd up, that's a pattern which makes sense. Festa's fastball grades as average (104), and that's probably generous given how it has virtually no horizontal movement, and his slider (120) is well above average. The grades are based on movement, spin, etc. If Festa adds a legitimate 3rd pitch, he might be a good future rotation piece. His changeup moves worse than average both vertically and horizontally, and graded a 66 where average quality is 100. Despite the potential for his pitches to be better, not one of them was effective in terms of actual results. The K rate is the first thing to look at for Festa. It was his calling card. It vanished at the MLB level, probably in part to Festa having a zone rate of 54.3%, which would be by far the highest of any qualified pitcher in MLB. He was throwing meatballs. A lot of them. Festa was pretty average when it came to O-contact rates, and his chase rate was good so if his location was where it should have been, he probably would have gotten more Ks. His zone rate was a lot higher than recorded in AAA, but even with Festa obviously trying hard to avoid walks/balls, he wasn't able to locate his pitches. Before you start bringing advanced metrics into the evaluation, you need to determine whether or not the player is a legitimate MLB caliber player. Festa is not right now. He can't locate his pitches, and he only has 2 viable pitches at the MLB level. That will never play in the big leagues. As I noted, I've seen enough of Festa as he is right now. He's got a lot of work do to before he might be a viable MLB rotation arm. Banking on Festa becoming a legit MLB rotation arm is a "no" for me. I can still hope he figures a couple things out to take a big step forward, but I'm not counting on it.
  14. bean5302
    ...and how many of those hitters were 6'5 and 250lbs who could bench 300lbs armed with specialized, technologically advanced 30-32oz bats made of maple and cupped at the end? Most old timey baseball players were 6'0" and about 175lbs. Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Carl Yastrzemski, Hank Aaron, all around there. Mickey Mantle was 5'11" 195lbs. Ruth only tipped the scales at 215 and swung a 50oz bat.
  15. bean5302
    For what? He's a below league average hitting DH who has to be platooned with no options after this year and he's going to be Arb2 next year. I mean, could the Twins get a PTBNL for him? I suppose some guy on the cusp of a team's top 30. AFAIC, if the Twins need the roster space, they can DFA and outright Kirilloff. I mean, I suppose there's a chance a team picks him up off waivers, but I don't have a problem watching him walk.
  16. bean5302
    I took the title literally. One year from now, rather than opening day :)
  17. bean5302
    I felt the same way most other felt. You compared the struggles of a now highly proven, great MLB pitcher who had a lot of struggles in his first MLB opportunity (Berrios) to Festa's struggles leading to 2 presumptions. 1) Any prospect can struggle because Berrios did 2) Any prospect can overcome the struggle because Berrios did <--- this is the part where Berrios gets directly compared to Festa
  18. bean5302
    I'm not ready to completely stick a fork in Festa because there's no need to do that. He'll have 2 more option years. There's also no chance I'd call his number again this year, and I never expect him to be good in an MLB rotation. He's got to find a 3rd MLB caliber pitch because he has an average fastball since it only has vertical movement, and a good slider. My rotation depth chart looks like this: Boushley > Matthews (NR) > Dobnak (NR) > Varland > Morris (NR) > Festa at the moment. @KirbyDome89 is dead on with his assessment about Berrios' performance in the minors. Berrios was consistently dominant and he was a universal top 30 prospect. #19 for MLB. #12 for Fangraphs, etc before he dominated AAA in 2016. Day in, day out. Berrios (a22) had only 3 starts in 17 AAA (18%) appearances where his FIP was north of 4.04 with none over 5.29. His final 4 starts before call up? 4 GS, 28.0 IP (7.0 avg), 2.25 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 12.86 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. Festa's been a Fangraphs velo darling who's flirted with top 100 status in some circles despite never being all that great of a results pitcher. Like Jim Hoey, though, a 100mph straight ball is still something MLB hitters will crush. Comparing Festa's a24 second go 'round in AAA season to Berrios' age 22 season. 14 GS 59.2 IP (4.1 avg), with 7 games (50%) having an FIP of 4.27 or higher, and 4 which were 6.27+. His last 4 starts? 20.2 IP (avg 5.0), 5.66 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 13.12 K/9, 3.62 BB/9. The two prospects weren't remotely similar. Berrios had multiple plus to plus-plus pitches and great control. He was an elite prospect with consistently dominant performances. Festa has none of that.
  19. bean5302
    Not with another year on his contract and and a solid history out of the 'pen. Maeda's velocity is down again this year. That doesn't play well for him. He needs that FB averaging 91-92 to be great. That said, he's given them about 50% solid starts this year, and some blow ups as well. They're only paying him back end rotation money so it's not that bad.
  20. bean5302
    I don't agree with him earning the promotion. He got the promotion because it was time to check him out against MLB hitters, not because he forced his way onto the roster. Festa was highly inconsistent with a lot of red flags with the Saints. Unlike Woods-Richardson, though, Festa's stuff just didn't play. Unfortunately for Festa, I don't think he was auditioning for next year or some point in the future. In my opinion, Paddack was probably slated to go to the bullpen if Festa pitched well, and the very rare opportunity wasn't capitalized. I say the opportunity was so rare because it represented potentially the second permanent shift in the depth chart, sending a MiLB to supplant a veteran. Varland lost his job to SWR, and Paddack could very well have lost his job to Festa. The best news for the Twins is they've now seen Varland and Festa in the rotation, and they should have a good feel for the likelihood they'll be able to count on those guys as rotation depth for the future. My opinion is a solid "no." There are other options in the MiLB system like Matthews and Morris who are already in the upper minors and seeing their stock rise fast with consistent domination.
  21. bean5302
    Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered at the end of the year so there's no worry about seeing him in the lineup next year. Larnach isn't ideal as a planned every day starter, though he's not a black hole at probably a 1.0-1.5 WAR kinda guy. While the article talks about him improving his approach vs. breaking/offspeed stuff, as the sample size grows, it looks a lot more like he's only changed his approach rather than improving the results. Out of options for next year, Larnach could be traded. Emmanuel Rodriguez probably has home as a starter in the outfield this time next year. I can only guess the article expects Jose Miranda to be the DH since Julien is the starting 1B. I'm not sure about Julien's future outlook as he's so redundant at this point. I'd be a little surprised if the Twins sold low on him before the trade deadline, but I don't think Julien has a good path back to regular playing time right now having been soundly leapfrogged by Lee so if Julien rebounds and finds his power stroke, I could see the Twins trading him. Constructing a roster with what the Twins have in their system right now: C - Jeffers 1B - Miranda 2B - Lee 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Rodriguez CF - Buxton RF - Wallner DH - Severino BC - Vazquez UI - Castro UO - Larnach UO - Martin
  22. bean5302
    I'd suggest an end to the Trevor Bauer discussion in the thread. People are almost exclusively divided into two highly passionate camps so it's just going to devolve into a thread war. I think the Twins do have a glaring and obvious need when it comes to playoff viability. That's an ace. They don't have one. They need one if they're planning to advance significantly in the playoffs.
  23. bean5302
    I've already seen all I need to see with Festa for a while. The Tigers are not a good hitting ball club and they just destroyed what he was offering. Festa also struggled against the Diamondbacks. It's easy to back up the eye test with pitch info. Festa does not have great control, his changeup is 30 grade, a show me pitch, really. Festa was able to get AAA hitters out with an average MLB caliber fastball and a very good slider, but the changeup is honestly just batting practice at the MLB level. Festa's getting ahead in the count with a 60-70% first pitch strike rate, and he's throwing a ton of strikes (too many), but his stuff just doesn't fool MLB hitters.
  24. bean5302
    I don't believe it's at all luck related for Royce at this point. It might be something modifiable, but the sheer glut of injuries he accumulates would require some astronomical odds.
  25. bean5302
    Dobnak is a sunk cost for next year at $3MM, but it's clear he's terribly far down the depth chart. Festa (40 man) > Varland (40 man) > Boushley (40 man) > Dobnak is how I'd rate the starter priority. The biggest issue with Dobnak wasn't necessarily his performance, but his time on the IL. He made 26 starts and 31 appearances last year, and he's been durable again this year, on pace for 150 innings or so. I don't think a PTBNL or a 20-30 org prospect is an overpay for Dobnak at his $3MM considering the team options which come with him. I agree with you the Rockies would likely be a very good fit for him, and given he's only under contract through next year (without exercising options), I think he's to the point where the sunk costs are largely evaporated so the Twins should be interested in moving him.
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