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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    With an 8 man bullpen, that's 240 relief pitchers in MLB at any given time, but of the 167 relievers with 48+ innings pitched, Jorge Alcala ranked #62 in ERA at 3.24. Puts him as an average team's 2nd best reliever. xERA ranks Alcala quite a bit higher, but his SIERA, FIP and xFIP are all less bullish. In terms of actual results, Alcala was very good.
  2. bean5302
    Another pretty much no brainer decision. Alcala is being brought back, especially at a highly team friendly $1.5MM option. MLBTR has Alcala slated at $1.7MM as an arbitration estimate. Declining the option is the same as non-tendering him, which would be pretty out there. Top 10% of MLB in exit velocity, expected batting average against, xwOBA on contact, hard hits allowed, and his Stuff+ grades out at near plus levels for all 4 pitches. He'd be a great option to turn into starter if he had the durability. He needs to locate his stuff a little better and he'd be dominant. The upside is way too high for $1.5MM.
  3. bean5302
    If the Twins just declined the option on Polanco, they're in exactly the same spot, but with $5.25MM more to spend. If you like Gonzalez, that's fine, but he wasn't going to help fill any of the holes the Twins had in 2024.
  4. bean5302
    Jose Altuve is a 9x All Star, MVP winner and virtual lock HoF'er, if not first ballot. He's 5'6" tall. No idea why you think shorter guys can't throw hard? Nick Allen had well above average arm strength as a shortstop in '22-'23, and he's listed 5'8" tall.
  5. bean5302
    The trade needs to be graded based on the needs of the team, and the outcome. For the Twins, the trade was a F on addressing the needs. They'd have been much better off declining Polanco's option than exercising it and trading him. This was the result of Falvey being too slow on addressing the need or overplaying his hand. He'd done this a couple years in a row now. For the Mariners, it was an A in regard to needs. They offset a lot of the payroll by moving a reliever with no track record, and a pitcher they didn't want on the roster to the Twins while simultaneously acquiring a 2B who projected as above average. In terms of outcomes, the Twins used the savings to sign Carlos Santana, which gives them an A on productivity, but it wasn't the position they really needed to fill (CF/SP/DH) so a C, IMHO. The Mariners got a injury hampered Polanco who struggled to AAA replacement level production, but they avoided significant hit to their payroll by being able to decline his option. D. Overall, I'd grade the trade as a C for the Mariners and a D for the Twins. The Mariners didn't have to pay Desclafani and Topa's $5MM in salary for 0 WAR, and they weren't on the hook for Polanco past 2024. The trade didn't turn out as a win-win, but it wasn't the worst trade that could have happened for either team.
  6. bean5302
    I suspect the Twins will wait to see what the arbitration/contract values look like for Ryan, Ober, Jax and Duran before making any trades. Given Falvey's lack of willingness to spend on the bullpen, I think Jax or Duran could be moved, but I don't think Ryan or Ober will be moved until the deadline (if the Twins are out of it) or after next season. Brooks Lee's consistent ineptitude at the plate along with the confirmation of his lack of physical tools will scare off most teams from investing heavily. Lee's also pre-arb so it's not expensive to keep him around and hope he gets closer to his ceiling.
  7. bean5302
    RF/9, FP for Saints' Shortstops 4.66 .957 - Holland 170 inn 4.28 .989 - Eeles 184 inn 4.06 .944 - Castillo 188 inn (graded serviceable to neutral as MLB SS in 2022) 3.68 .964 - Helman 264 inn 3.29, .974 - Lee 153 inn 3.22 .970 - Bannon 274 inn You have a pretty strong opinion on a guy who grades out pretty well at SS in a small sample. Eeles hasn't been asked to play SS much by the Twins, and the scouting reports are down on his arm, but the scouting reports didn't foresee him being this impressive even at the high minors levels. When it comes to physical tools like running and throwing, it sure seems like the scouting reports are often biased. In regard to scouting reports favoring Eeles' status as an unknown, talented MiLB players spend only a couple months at each level, and development in the minors for pitchers has as much or more to do with throwing the pitch the boss wants you to work on than it does trying to target an opponents weakness. Eeles is certainly no sure fire bet, but at age 24, he was not old for AAA last year. He was on a level playing field with good, but non-elite prospects who were taken out of college. I don't think he's probably an option as a starter at SS based on the scouting reports and fair, but not great defensive stats, but the Twins have Correa there anyway. As a backup SS, he could be as good of a bet as Brooks Lee, who also has none of the physical tools to succeed there or Royce Lewis who does have the physical tools, but struggles to throw with accuracy. The best news is the Twins have a big hole at 2B with the two most likely starters being guys who apparently can't hit at the MLB level (Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien).
  8. bean5302
    Trading Wallner feels like a colossal mistake in the works. You're talking about one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball with the physical tools to be a plus fielder in the corners who is still pre-arb. If Wallner hadn't slumped out of the gate this year, he'd probably be viewed similar in a lot of respects to early Giancarlo Stanton who went on to win an MVP in 2017. Wallner needs to be more consistent? '23 AAA Apr 75 PA, .268/.453/.500 OPS .953 wRC+ 149 AAA May 69 PA, .323/.348/.615 OPS .963 wRC+ 131 AAA Jun+ 161 PA, .286/.404/.489 OPS .892 wRC+ 127 MLB Jul .209/.306/.512 OPS .818 wRC+ 122 MLB Aug .208/.322/.481 OPS .803 wRC+ 121 MLB Sep .284/.411/.514 OPS .925 wRC+ 156 '24 All Apr 77 PA .136/.247/.273 OPS .519 wRC+ 43 AAA May 121 PA, .198/.306/.436 OPS .741 wRC+ 88 AAA Jun+ 132 PA, .342/.417/.726 OPS 1.143 wRC+ 189 Jul .364/.451/.818 OPS 1.269 wRC+ 253 Aug .273/.398/.558 OPS .956 wRC+ 173 Sep .243/.333/.405 OPS .739 wRC+ 115 In his sophomore season, Wallner definitely slumped hard to start the year. He was focused on cutting down his weakness to inside pitches, which meant changing his approach at the plate. The slump carried into the first part of May. Apart from that, Wallner has consistently hit well to excellent every single month of the the past 2 years. His K rate is too high, but for hitters as dangerous as Wallner is at the plate, it's not uncommon to see an improvement in plate discipline as they get more experience. Aaron Judge K'd over 30% of the time for his first 3 seasons. Another commonly trashed player around TD historically is Brent Rooker. Rooker's K rate dropped below 30% last year on his way to the most impressive full season hitting campaign the Twins have seen since 2019's Nelson Cruz, but Wallner has better physical tools than Rooker. There is a reason Wallner's trade value is neck and neck with the most valuable 26 man guys the Twins have. Right with Lopez and Jax, above guys like Lee and Lewis. Wallner's ceiling might be Stanton's 2017, though I don't think he'll get there, but the number of players with a wRC+ 150 bat in MLB is awfully small. Around 10 qualify per year. Last year all of them had at least 4.7 fWAR. Teams with little to no depth looking to remain competitive do not deal from pre-arb players who project as likely elite contributors. If the Twins are looking to punt/tank on 2025-2026... I guess. But then guys like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Duran, Lewis, Buxton, and Correa are all preferable to move...
  9. bean5302
    I can understand the desire to have a more proven player slated into the starter position, but I think there are plenty of playoff hopeful teams who'd be okay rolling with Miranda at 1B. Miranda's bat (apart from trying to play through a sprained shoulder in 2023) has been solid for nearly 900 plate appearances in 2 seasons. That's a pretty solid track record for a pre-arb guy. In regard to WAR expectations, players with similar bats to Miranda's wRC+ 115 who are listed as 1B in Fanraphs (+/- 5pts of wRC+) with fWAR 115 Salvador Perez = 3.2 119 Christian Walker = 3.0 114 Carlos Santana = 3.0 117 Matt Olson = 2.6 118 Josh Naylor = 2.3 119 Michael Busch = 2.3 120 Yandy Diaz = 1.9 The range from best case to worst is basically 2-3 WAR. I don't think it's unfair to expect Miranda playing 1B will be at that 2 WAR level. I copied this from another article posted today Apr 52PA, .280/.308/.480 BABIP .308, 1.9% BB, 17.3% K, EV 89.7mph, Barrel 4.9%, Hard Hit 34.1% May 91PA, .271/.308/.424 BABIP .286, 4.4% BB, 14.3% K, EV 88.2mph, Barrel 6.8%, Hard Hit 39.7% Jun 98PA, .333/.388/.552 BABIP .351, 8.2% BB, 12.2% K, EV 91.2mph, Barrel 10.4%, Hard Hit 44.2% Jul 44PA, .439/.477/.634 BABIP .515, 2.3% BB, 15.9% K, EV 87.8mph, Barrel 5.9%, Hard Hit 41.2% Aug 88PA, .232/.273/.354 BABIP .264, 4.5% BB, 12.5% K, EV 89.3mph, Barrel 4.2%, Hard Hit 41.7% Sep 56PA, .196/.196/.250 BABIP .262, 0.0% BB, 25.0% K, EV 85.0mph, Barrel 0.0%, Hard Hit 26.2% Miranda was good to outstanding with his results for 4 months straight this year, and his metrics in August suggested his results were unlucky (expected with the extremely lucky July). Miranda produced above average results in June, July, August, and September straight in 2022 as well after a very slow start for the rookie in May, 2022. Two separate healthy seasons where Miranda produced for at least 4 straight months each year. That's more than a couple weeks. The arguments you (and other TD writers) are making don't seem to hold up to fair scrutiny. I don't think Miranda is an All Star or anything. Just that all indications are when placed in a defensive position he's actually suited to play, with the bat he's had over the vast majority of two separate seasons, he's a more solid choice than he's being credited for around here. I don't think I have anything more to add to the discussion at this point so if you disagree, it's not like I'll lose my mind over it or something. Opinions will always vary on players no matter how good or bad they play.
  10. bean5302
    Another mostly negative Miranda article. At least the writers are consistent... Miranda is a solid option for every day 1B. Apr 52PA, .280/.308/.480 BABIP .308, 1.9% BB, 17.3% K, EV 89.7mph, Barrel 4.9%, Hard Hit 34.1% May 91PA, .271/.308/.424 BABIP .286, 4.4% BB, 14.3% K, EV 88.2mph, Barrel 6.8%, Hard Hit 39.7% Jun 98PA, .333/.388/.552 BABIP .351, 8.2% BB, 12.2% K, EV 91.2mph, Barrel 10.4%, Hard Hit 44.2% Jul 44PA, .439/.477/.634 BABIP .515, 2.3% BB, 15.9% K, EV 87.8mph, Barrel 5.9%, Hard Hit 41.2% Aug 88PA, .232/.273/.354 BABIP .264, 4.5% BB, 12.5% K, EV 89.3mph, Barrel 4.2%, Hard Hit 41.7% Sep 56PA, .196/.196/.250 BABIP .262, 0.0% BB, 25.0% K, EV 85.0mph, Barrel 0.0%, Hard Hit 26.2% It's pretty clear Miranda's August had a lot of bad luck involved, offsetting the ridiculously lucky .515 BABIP July, and it's also clear he was awful in September before his season was shut down seeing Miranda hit the IL with a lower back strain. Considering almost all the metrics for Miranda's plate approach and batted ball tendencies were pretty consistent outside September, there's no particularly good reason to suspect that luck and later his back wasn't at fault for his production in August/September.
  11. bean5302
    Cheap 2 WAR players don't get you into the postseason, they just help prevent you from missing it. They're the bread and butter of a competitive team.
  12. bean5302
    I don't think you're honestly evaluating the situation which gets right back to my original question/assertion in regard to Miranda's popularity with the writers on this site. So let's throw out the most reliable advanced defensive stats for the small sample sizes we have and hinge the debate not on metrics, but reading the minds of the Twins' front office and management. The Twins have not commonly deployed Miranda at DH, preferring to use him primarily at 3B. The question is why the Twins would deploy Miranda at a much more demanding defensive position if they didn't believe he could catch baseballs? Again, the error rate for Miranda at 1B suggests he can catch baseballs just fine since his fielding percentage (.995) is basically right in line with Carlos Santana's 1B career fielding percentage (.994) or last year's (.996). You could argue Santana is superior with scooping after 10 years of experience, but that's not enough to make Miranda into an unplayable fielder there. To answer your question as to why the Twins deployed Miranda at 3B instead of 1B, wouldn't it make a lot more sense that they felt Miranda was better at 3B than Donovan Solano (who was a primary 2B/3B throughout his career) or Carlos Santana (very limited 3B experience)? While the Twins are hardly a traditional organization, even they wouldn't choose to deploy their expected worst fielder to the hot corner of the infield. Now, if the Twins have the budget to go out and get a slick fielding free agent 1B who can hit, I could see them doing it just for depth, but not because they don't believe Miranda can play 1B. The by far most likely scenario is believing in his 2024 results at the plate to bring back Carlos Santana, but I doubt they're getting him for $5MM after his resurgent 2024. The 39 year old's age is scary, but he was extremely durable, and he's coming off by far the best year he's had at the plate since 2019. Santana is going to have a couple suitors unlike last year when he languished on the free agent market into February which should get him a couple extra million, I suspect. Already probably $10MM in the hole for payroll capacity, I don't see the Twins finding another $8MM or so to bring back Santana. After that, it's nothing but guys who can't field (Josh Bell) or can't hit (Joey Gallo) or are highly suspect in durability and/or performance in general (Anthony Rizzo).
  13. bean5302
    I think it is pretty radical to assume Miranda wouldn't be capable as an every day first baseman. He's barely played the position last year because of Carlos Santana being a solid fielding, veteran, durable 1B who switch hits. Miranda had a +3.3 UZR/150 at 1B in 2022. Miranda was better than average with fielding percentage, and Miranda was above average in range by UZR, which uses the exact same data table as DRS. The ding against Miranda at 1B was in "double play rate." OAA/DRS are totally unstable even in full year to year Looking at 2024, in his 100 inning sample size, Miranda graded as +6.7 in UZR/150, neutral in OAA and neutral in DRS. Miranda has a good glove, he just doesn't have the arm to play 3B. There's no reason to suspect he won't be at least average at 1B, IMHO.
  14. bean5302
    I think that's pretty fair, and right about where I expected him to be before 2024 began. A solid 2 WAR every day player until he gets into year 2-3 of arbitration when it gets more likely for him to be traded away.
  15. bean5302
    Castro isn't remotely close to enough for Rushing. Castro is going to cost $6MM. His market value is 3yrs $28MM so an AAV of roughly $10MM. He's under control for just one year, so his value is going to be like $5MM surplus. Enough for like a #10 org prospect, not a what would normally be a #1-2 org prospect for most teams. Rushing is more comparable to Emmanuel Rodriguez.
  16. bean5302
    Yes. Dobnak would probably to be considered part of the "MLB" payroll because he's under a guaranteed contract. It's dead money. The maximum 26 man payroll is probably related to the front office payroll, MiLB salaries, international draft money, etc.
  17. bean5302
    Right? What is it with this site's writers absolutely hating Jose Miranda? Did he break into their houses and steal the last beer out of their fridges or something?
  18. bean5302
    Jeffers is an average defensive catcher with a slightly above average bat. His wOBA was almost 40pts higher than expected last year, and even Jeffers knew it was smoke and mirrors so he adapted his plate approach to try and get some sustainability. Once you throw out the junk stat "catcher framing," Jeffers is a 2 WAR catcher on an average year, but Baldelli's love of resting players will always limit Jeffers' plate appearances. That means the Twins need 2 starting caliber catchers. Rushing bats left handed so the platoon obsessed front office will love that. As for what the Dodgers want? Starting pitching. Calling their rotation "one of the best in baseball" is far from accurate. The Dodgers are returning Glasnow (who was on the IL with an elbow injury) and Yamamoto, but after that, there's nothing reliable due to a host of "forearm" injuries and TJs. They're going to want pitching. What kind of pitching? Starts with a Pablo and ends with a Lopez is my guess. They'd probably also take Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober.
  19. bean5302
    Dusty Baker has managed a team for 26 years and made the World Series once. Ever.
  20. bean5302
    Stewart is at league minimum. If the Twins think he's better than a league minimum bargain bin reliever (I suspect they do), it's an easy yes. Topa at $1.3MM. Again, this is very close to league minimum. Spotrac predicts $1.8MM which gets a little tougher to justify, but they also have his FA market value at 2yrs $8.6MM. I think Topa probably benefitted from pitching in Seattle with his xFIP being 3.55 vs. his ERA 2.61 or FIP at 3.15. Topa's had a very, very long injury history. He doesn't miss a ton of bats, and his stuff is pretty average. Given he's now entering his age 34 season. I'd non-tender. Tonkin pitched a full year and every single time he hit the waiver wire, he was quickly snapped right back up. He switched up to a 4 seamer and missed more bats this past year, and his Stuff+ was solidly above average. Estimated at $1.5MM, I think Tonkin is a good tender option. He's been durable, and his stuff looked adequate for a pretty low price. Spotrac estimates $1.9MM, with a free agent market value of 2yrs $9.3MM. He's going to be on somebody's 26 man MLB roster.
  21. bean5302
    Margot did not hit well against left handers, especially for a low value defensive position (corner outfielder), he didn't even hit adequately. Also, Margot was not brought in as a corner outfielder. He was brought in to supplement Byron Buxton when Buxton couldn't play (Buxton missed starting 76 games) and to platoon for lefty corner outfielders which would have pushed Margot over 100 games and 400 PA. Anybody thinking Margot was slated for less than 400 PA this year when the Twins acquired him is fooling themselves. Margot was basically league average at .269/.322/.391 OPS .713 wRC+ 103 against lefties. Worse than Max Kepler's .273/.305/.416 OPS .720 wRC+ 104, FWIW. Beyond the whole "platoon against lefties" argument in general is the fact you can't platoon against left handed pitching since about 80% of innings go to right handed pitchers. Even if you're trying to platoon, most plate appearances will always come against RHP for a regular player, and Margot was a black hole against RHP. In fact, the Twins desperately tried to keep Margot out of the lineup against RHP, and he still had 172 PA against RHP to 171 PA against lefties.
  22. bean5302
    Thanks for agreeing with me.
  23. bean5302
    Wallner hits the ball super hard so his BABIP is going to be elevated, but he will definitely have to cut the K rate to remain a truly elite bat. He had 60 grade speed in previous years, and sprint speed in small sample sizes can be off quite a bit or if there is any kind of leg injury a player is working with so it's tough to gauge how he'll be as a runner. It's an area he should focus on if he wants to maximize his value (and paycheck). Concerns over Duran's velocity are overstated. He was down 1.4mph on average from 2023, but only 0.5mph from 2022, and Duran missed quite a bit of time at the beginning of the season. He's still averaging over 100mph on his FB. Harder isn't necessarily better as his fastball graded much better this year in terms of stuff than last year because of movement. In 2024, Duran maxed out at 103.1mph. Julien looks lost at the plate. It's not like his strikeouts were out of line with last year, but Julien started swinging a lot more at pitches on the inside edge of the plate from the middle to upper part of the zone. Anywhere from 10-20% higher swing rates despite him being unable to drive those balls at all. His BB rate dropped off way too much for him to be successful. He was even swinging 5% more at "balls" inside where he's helpless. Julien was also ineffective at driving balls landing in the spots he would have punished last year. I suspect Julien has some mental block here like Wallner did to start the season. No small part may be related to the quick hook the Twins gave him in favor of F.O. favorite Brooks Lee. Speaking of... Lee has been scouted as a poor runner since before he was drafted. He's just really slow. Relies on instincts and smooth fielding skills. Zero athleticism. It's abundantly clear he wasn't ready for MLB, and the Twins probably did him a real disservice by calling his number as quickly as they did after having him rework his swing. Lee's max exit velocity of 107.4 was on the edge of bottom 10% of batters with 100+ batted ball events suggesting his raw power is probably a 40 grade tool matching his 35 grade run tool. his max throwing velocity was 83.1mph which would rank 50th of 62 3B with 50+ throws, it feels like Brooks Lee's ceiling is a lesser version of Miranda right now. Miranda has a tick faster running speed, and a tick harder throwing speed, but with a lot more raw power, and I think a similar contact based hit tool with both of them refusing to allow a pitcher to walk them. Obviously, Lee's a polished fielder which makes up for a lot of his physical limitations, but grading him out would probably be Hit = 55, Power = 40, Speed = 35, Arm = 40, Fielding = 50. Part time utility infielder is the likely outcome without some major changes to his physical abilities.
  24. bean5302
    The idea the Twins can learn from the Dodgers is pretty out there. Minnesota does not have even 1/2 the resources Los Angeles does so the Twins have to build their team a different way. Top hitters by WAR *Shoehei Ohtani - 10yrs $700MM 9.1 WAR **Mookie Betts - 13yrs $392MM 4.4 WAR Freddie Freeman - 6yrs $162MM 4.0 WAR *Teoscar Hernandez - 1yr $24MM 3.5 WAR *Miguel Rojas - 2yrs $11MM 2.8 WAR Will Smith - 10yrs $140MM 2.7 WAR Max Muncy - 2yrs $24MM 2.4 WAR *Free agent acquisitions **Expensive, high profile trades Every single one of those players is locked up on contracts. None of them is pre-arb. None of them are in arbitration. Over 1/2 of the players and 70% of the WAR came from outside the organization. That's $1.4 BILLION in contracts. The Twins cannot play that game. Top pitchers by WAR **Tyler Glasnow - 5yrs $137MM 3.8 WAR *Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 10yrs $300MM 2.8 WAR Gavin Stone - OMG, a player who isn't locked up. He's pre-arb! 2.0 WAR **Jack Flaherty - 1yr $14MM 0.8 WAR Clayton Kershaw - 1yr $10MM Add another $500MM or so So you know, if the Twins were to hand out $2 BILLION in contracts, they'd likely have the same kind of depth the Dodgers have. They cannot learn the "unlimited payroll" skill.
  25. bean5302
    DRS and OAA are legitimate metrics, but defensive metrics are unreliable in small sample sizes. DRS is especially prone to inaccurate values without huge sample sizes because of its SSS multiplier system. OAA seems just as prone to wild shifts in value from year to year. Players don't go from elite to terrible back to elite from year to year over their careers. I felt like an image showing the reality of how unstable DRS and OAA are would be valuable. UZR/150 (which is also sketchy in SSS) is at least fairly consistent showing Santana as around league average year to year with a slow decline you'd expect from an aging player.
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