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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    1) you're bad at selecting and developing starting pitching....so,... 2) you over-spend to acquire it (money or prospect capital); which results in... 3) you aren't very good for very long Front Office is currently deciding if they should go 1, 2, 3.....or directly from 1 to 3. The only thing that's going to make things sustainably better is to change number 1. I wish I saw more evidence that that is happening with this new FO/organization. It can't happen fast enough.
  2. jkcarew
    Right. Arbitration eligible in 2020 and 2021. So, maybe the poster that I responded to meant "don't extend beyond 2021"...or "force the arbitration process". Either way, the Twins can offer a multi-year extension, or trade him...and they have until July 31, 2021 (latest...Brian Dozier scenario) to trade him.
  3. jkcarew
    You don’t want the wild card. That path is much tougher since they added the second wild-card and the ‘play-in’ game. Now, even if you survive that, you’ve typically burned your best starter. You absolutely want to win the division. But, I don’t think there’s that much value difference between the 2 and 3 seed...or even the 1 and 3 seed.
  4. jkcarew
    He’s signed through 2021...and there’s no reason he would accept a 1-year extension or 1-year deal of any kind. The Twins will give him a multi-year deal/extension...or they’ll trade him.
  5. jkcarew
    "Jose Miranda made his Double-A debut and went 3-for-5 with a double." Of course he did. Just released from batters' jail (aka, the Florida State League)...where you play 7-inning double-headers every 3 days due to rain-outs, and the air is always laced with 97% humidity...and where Miranda's numbers this season were pretty ugly...even 'worse' than Royce Lewis's.
  6. jkcarew
    I agree with the "give him another year"...and that the numbers were influenced by a tough league for hitters. But if Lewis profiled like Mondesi offensively (still TBD, obviously)...that would make me feel worse, not better. Mondesi is not a good offensive player at the major-league level. (Not at this point, anyway.) Meanwhile, nobody is expecting Lewis to be a plus defender at SS. Lewis needs to hit eventually...better than Mondesi has shown so far.
  7. jkcarew
    "On the other hand, they've won only one series against a good team in the past two months. Their rotation looks like a mess even against bottom-dwelling clubs that have all but given up. And now, the difficulty level is about to turn up by several notches. It feels like a reckoning is coming unless Minnesota can rise to the challenge." Fair assessment, IMO. Twins next 12 games: 6 against Cleveland; 6 against Boston/Washington (Nationals with best record in baseball over last 3+ months...58-28 since May 23). Cleveland's next 12 games: 6 against Twins; 6 against Angels/White Sox. We ain't home yet. Especially considering how the starting pitching match-ups could look over this stretch. This stretch is about surviving. Surviving should be good enough. Thriving would be great, and that's possible, but not my expectation.
  8. jkcarew
    Not even a remote chance Graterol gets a start...unless, it's in 'opener' fashion. So, maybe 'all of the above". The last time Graterol had an appearance that lasted more than 2 innings or 29 pitches was May 19...which was also his last appearance this season as a starting pitcher. The question at this point is...will Graterol start games next year? Lot's of signs that point to 'no'.
  9. jkcarew
    Priorities...1, win division. Lost of games left with Cleveland. Next 12 are Cleveland, the Red Sox, who we never seem to play well against, and the Nationals, who have about the best record in baseball over the last 3+ months (58-28 since May 23). 2, rest key starters, leverage relievers, and even certain position players (i.e., Polanco), and dinged-up guys. 3, get playing time for key guys coming off injuries (Buxton, Gonzalez). If I were Rocco, getting the #2 seed wouldn't even register in my consciousness at this point. If it happens, it happens. Win a game on the road.
  10. jkcarew
    IMO, the ceiling is low. The OPS at Rochester this season well below league average. So far, he’s a corner outfielder with no power. Meanwhile, the OBP has come from BB, not BA (or BABiP). Hard to imagine that being sustainable over time in the bigs with as little power as he has shown. Don’t really think he’s going to be much of a base stealing threat in the majors either...to the extent there are still going to be “base stealers” the way the game is played now...they will be guys with elite speed. That’s not Wade. On the other hand, the floor is probably what we see. Maybe plus defense in the corners, good first-to-this base runner...and able to take professional at-bats and put the ball in play. 4th (or 5th) outfielder.
  11. jkcarew
    Noteworthy that bilateral leg weakness didn't make the board at 100-1.
  12. jkcarew
    Boy...an absolute miserable year in the state of Florida for baseball. Those three weeks in March make up for it in terms of revenue, I'm sure. But it's an awful place to be trying to get games and innings in to develop players. Or was it just worse than normal this year?
  13. jkcarew
    Rare is the experienced major leaguer who consistently performs much better or much worse in leverage situations than they do in all other situations. Schoop is no exception...most of his leverage numbers are right at his career overall OPS of 745...some are moderately below that. Of coarse, I'd much rather have Cruz up in a leverage spot than Schoop...but that's because Cruz is a better hitter than Schoop and always has been. We get carrier away with in-season leverage numbers, and the samples are just too small. Of course, it seems like whoever is in a slump is the guy who keeps coming up in leverage situations.
  14. jkcarew
    You are aware he was drafted 13th overall, right? Earlier than the most optimistic service you cite. He’s a high ceiling low floor guy who arrived late on the national scene. And there’s more projection than even for a typically high-schooler based on his late birth date. Did I say he was a horrendous reach? Maybe better to say he was a high-risk pick, picked when lower-risk options are typically still available.
  15. jkcarew
    Scouting consensus was that Cavaco was extremely raw and a reach at #13. Score one for the consensus. IMO, not all first-round draft picks should immediately be considered highly-ranked prospects. Cavaco is the poster-child for this argument.
  16. jkcarew
    Depressing to think how good the White Sox should be (or at least can be) in the very near future. They have good very young players all over the place...and will have more (Kopech) next year. The easier opportunity to pitch around Abreu was last week...when they didn't do it. Much harder to pitch around him with Moncada in the lineup. Moncada was expected to be legit...and he is. Already arguably a better hitter than Abreu.
  17. jkcarew
    Almost as entertaining as if we had a Cody (or Kody) Schieferdecker? What are the chances?
  18. jkcarew
    Which matches the eye test, and makes sense. Lineups that hit a lot of singles get lots of fastballs, since a hit often isn't any (or much) worse than a walk. That's not the Twins. Lineups like the Twins, that hit a ton of home runs get lots of breaking balls...and fastballs on the edge or outside the zone. Twins power hitters...especially since Sano seems to have made his adjustments...aren't getting challenged with fastballs in the zone frequently, at least by the 80%+ of pitchers that don't have extraordinary fastballs. It's amazing how many 2-1 and 3-1 pitches the Twins get that are still not fastballs.
  19. jkcarew
    “Make sure not to pass on the message but opposing pitchers and coaching staffs must not have caught on to Minnesota’s fastball tendencies. Through this weekend’s games, the Twins have seen fastballs in 26.4% of their at-bats while the MLB average is 22.0%. Mitch Garver (34.2 FB%), Miguel Sano (32.6%), Jason Castro (31.1%), Eddie Rosario (30.4%) and Max Kepler (30.1%) are all seeing fastballs at least a third of the time. The Twins also have five other regular players with a FB% above the league average.” No. You are quoting batted ball statistics, not pitches faced. The Twins have a 26.4% FLY BALL rate...vs league average of 22%.
  20. jkcarew
    Not sure I remember many names from the list of bad relievers that became good starters. I would consider that more a hope than a plan. Meanwhile, the Twins should be as patient as they can with Romero, but think he needs to figure out how to get guys out from the bullpen before I’d be pushing him back to a starting role.
  21. jkcarew
    Arraez is a second baseman or (maybe) a super utility guy. Even as good as he’s been, he’s one week of bad BABiP from being a sub-800 OPS guy. (Current BABiP is in Carew territory...and as good or better than most of Gwynn’s seasons...this is as good as we could reasonably expect over large samples.) The bat plays much better at second (or in a super utility role). His OBP is a great fit for the current lineup which is full of guys who can SLG...future Twins lineups? We’ll see. Also, why would you say Cave has a smaller sample size than Arraez? For this year, I guess...but why wouldn’t last year mean anything? Cave has a larger sample. Cave is OPS+’ing 115 for his career (112 last season) across more than 450 plate appearances. This is a good talker for us, but too many things need to play out including health and performances and the profile of the opposition’s pitching. I expect the staff won’t spend too much thought on this until shortly before those decisions need to be made.
  22. jkcarew
    This. Outfield especially...aren’t even directionally correct/consistent. Makes sense when who makes the putout (center fielder or corner fielder) is often arbitrary...and each player defends a different area and geometry based on ballpark (among many other problems with current data). Meanwhile, infield metrics will get less reliable before they get more, given all the variances in how/when teams shift. Some day we will laugh at the era where we had defensive metrics that only considered results, without accounting for time, distance, two and three dimensional coordinates, etc...and without accounting for impacts of alignments and adjacent defenders. Meanwhile, I immediately back out the defensive component to a player’s WAR when considering any argument for/against that player based on WAR. Or simply go to his wRC+, and let my eyeballs and common sense add/subtract if there is anything on the defensive side to warrant it.
  23. jkcarew
    Thought I had heard that velocity was up during the broadcast. First couple of innings. Maybe just anecdotal for a small number of pitches and not supported by the body of the data for that outing? If so, it's just another reason to seriously consider shutting him down for a start or two now....not waiting.
  24. jkcarew
    It's a good question. I wonder if his improved velocity (results notwithstanding) in the recent start against Texas convince them to forge ahead for now with the idea of resting him later if/when the opportunity arises or if the results continue to be poor? If he were to make all his remaining scheduled starts, his total innings workload wouldn't come in that much beyond the 192+ he had last year. And his next scheduled start lines up against Boyd in the opener of the Detroit series, unfortunately...kind of makes it less 'ideal' to start a rookie against Boyd. I would guess they are actively evaluating him and these options.
  25. jkcarew
    Really good question, right? Has to be lack of command of one or both. I guess we'll find out...or hopefully not !
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