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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Better than could have been expected (or at least better than I expected)… Miranda, Gordon, Arraez (despite the drop off in 2nd half), Lewis (for a short time). About as expected… Starting pitching, Polanco, Buxton (this is what he is, a good, not great, overall player who plays about 100 games), Urshella, Sanchez (this is why the Yankees parted ways). Worse than expected… Bullpen (even worse), Kepler, Sano, Kirilloff (for a short time), Jeffers (bad enough that it didn’t hurt much to lose him), Correa (slightly…still the club was infinitely better at the SS position than they were in 2021) I figured around 500…and they probably finish a little worse than that.
  2. jkcarew
    Sano, Kirilloff, Lewis, Buxton, Polanco, Mahle are the only needle movers here. (In the cases of Mahle, Kirilloff, and Sano, we can call them ‘potential’ needle movers. Maeda doesn’t count, you knew you’d be without him.) Of those six needle-movers, for half of them, Buxton, Kirilloff, and Mahle, you HAD to know the risk. Meanwhile, Sano has been on the brink of collapse since 2020. That leaves Polanco (healthy for +80% of the season) and Lewis. Yes, The sheer number of injuries would have tested the depth of any roster. But, I’d say the long, slow collapse was a combination of some bad breaks AND a head-in-sand approach to roster construction by FO. (Additionally, IMO, Baldelli does not contribute to wins on the margin, but that seems like a different topic.)
  3. jkcarew
    Only in Twins-land can we consider it ‘aggressive’ to move this player to high A: considered a steal at #8 overall…65-70 hit tool…college bat who will be 22 before next season begins. Sigh.
  4. jkcarew
    Yeah. It’s usually only late in the game or extras, where one run wins the game. Who cares about that.
  5. jkcarew
    Exciting for Balazovic. Hopefully he can build off of this in final start or two. AFL candidate?…if he is truly healthy. They don’t throw many innings…it might be a chance to get his head/confidence back and build some momentum for next year? I can’t remember if the AFL has an age limit that would disqualify Balazovic?
  6. jkcarew
    It’s frustrating watching this short-handed lineup, but it could be worse. Just think where we’d be without Fullmer, Mahle, and Lopez. No, wait.
  7. jkcarew
    In a recent critical game against the White Sox, Chicago played a lineup without Anderson, Robert, Jimenez, and Moncada. It’s not just quantity, it’s quality. If everyone had been healthy all year, Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland, 1,2,3. Although, this probably sells short the advantage Cleveland has in the dugout…which is very significant.
  8. jkcarew
    We control our own destiny. And that’s the problem. Cleveland and Chicago can’t loose every game if the Twins keep showing up on their schedule so frequently.
  9. jkcarew
    Also…If I understand the restrictions…here is what the Twins would/should do against a dead pull lefty…. Buxton plays center, left fielder (especially if you have someone with infield experience in left field like Arraez, Gordon, or even Kirilloff) plays deep second in the pull hole. Right fielder plays ‘normal’ right field, second baseman plays a straightaway second. And we’ll see if the batter tries to hit it enough the opposite way that Buxton (or any fast CF) can’t track it down. Spoiler alert: 90% of today’s batters won’t even try. It’s not in the toolbox. Only happens by accident when they slice something. Also, fwwi…this lengthens the game to the extent that we see more ground balls through the hole…which will be hit primarily by guys that don’t or can’t steel bases, regardless of whether it becomes marginally easier to steal…because you’ll have more and more launch and pull guys and because analytics will still say a 2-run HR (which, if anything, will be more likely under the restrictions) trumps multiple successful steals.
  10. jkcarew
    Banning the shifts is the exact opposite of what is needed. Long-term, it will further incentivize batters taking pitches waiting for one they can pull and launch. Look for even more long at bats, more strike-outs…all for the benefit of a small number additional ground balls through the hole. Dumb. Batters are NOT going to start trying to hit the ball on the ground. Yet another step toward the extinction of guys that have flexible approaches, can handle the bat and hit the opposite way…all so guys like Kepler can hit 240 instead of 225.
  11. jkcarew
    I’d say February. But to each his own.
  12. jkcarew
    Not buying it. We’re talking rookies. Hrbek was a rookie in 1982. He was also 22 years old in his rookie year.. Miranda is 24. Again, not really that close. Doesn’t mean Miranda won’t be as good or better than Hrbek some day. Could happen. But it does mean Hrbek’s rookie year was very very impressive not withstanding the 73 PA he got in ‘81 at age 21.
  13. jkcarew
    He’s had a tendency to struggle mightily in August’s. Struggles moderately in all other months.
  14. jkcarew
    He’s limited defensively (to be kind), he’s limited on the bases, he’s posted a 320 OBP with a 17/73 BB/K ratio. And in doing so, he has shown signs that he could develop into a very dangerous hitter. But in one short article, he just went from underrated to overrated. Fwiw…Miranda’s OFFENSIVE season (if he finishes strong) will compare with the rookie campaigns of some Twins greats…and also the likes of Marty Cordova and DANNY SANTANA. Not really close to Hrbek’s 1982, and not in the same universe as Oliva’s 1964.
  15. jkcarew
    We need to retire the “but prospect x is y years younger than the ave competition” thing. It has limited relevancy in the lower levels, but egregiously irrelevant at the AAA level where the majority of players are the opposite of prospects…they’re certified replacement-level players, (or less). Balazovic is giving up a run per inning to the Tim Beckhams’s and Mark Contreras’s of professional baseball. Should it really mean anything that he is younger than them? The most troubling thing is that he’s been consistently horrible all year…really no flashes, followed by a few catastrophes. Just outing after outing of alarming ineffectiveness consisting of control issues AND lots of home runs. The hope is that it all goes back to control, because nothing’s been working.
  16. jkcarew
    No tune, but against the Giants… You could tell by the way we used the walk We’re a contending team, no time to talk
  17. jkcarew
    Still, there’s something to be said for having a veteran guy like Pagan in the back of the pen who knows what’s it’s like to give up 3 runs late to blow a game, but then can come right back in the next big spot and only give up 1 or 2.
  18. jkcarew
    Pagan is what we used to call, before all the data…”not good”.
  19. jkcarew
    Nothing that the roster spot would justify. Nothing. The only Billy Hamilton I want died in 1940. He could get on base.
  20. jkcarew
    Instead of Pagan? Yes. But it’s pretty easy to argue that he doesn’t DESERVE a call up or to argue that there are still a couple others that would deserve the call up more than he does. He hasn’t been very good at all in St. Paul. And it’s still a little early to call him up just because he’s a prospect. (Although that time seems to be rapidly approaching.)
  21. jkcarew
    I said Varland was massively overrated at #12…benefitting from the “one of us” mentality. I’d love to continue to eat those words.
  22. jkcarew
    It ain’t bad luck when you seriously hurt your hip swinging at a pitch. That’s simply having a body that isn’t constructed to be able to withstand the normal rigors of the sport. For every piano that’s fallen on Buxton there’s been at LEAST one significant injury like the most recent one. Better luck isn’t going to change that.
  23. jkcarew
    Major league teams have seen fit to play Gallo in CF in nearly 60 games. This will NEVER happen with Wallner. Gallo is much better defensively. On the other hand, I’d like to think his offensive ceiling is a bit better than Gallo. Again…at least ceiling-wise.
  24. jkcarew

    Where's Wallner?

    jkcarew commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    And none of that matters even a little if his hit tool proves as elite at the MLB level as it’s been at the AA level (and every other level so far). It’s like saying an NBA player is bad at everything…except he can rain catch-and-shoot 3’s with a hand in his face.
  25. jkcarew
    If Correa is a 3 WAR player lets hope he opts out. Twins have multiple players on the roster that can approach that…allowing the Twins to invest in pitching (and/or catching). Having said that, he’s probably more like a 5 WAR player for the next couple of years…I THINK.
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