TD Top Prospects: #3 Jose Berrios

165 to 170 innings this year, I would expect. I have a hard time believing that he won't appear for the Twins in September, and perhaps that could be in a bullpen role.

I think out of all these top prospects J.O. could end up being the most popular among Twins fans for all the reasons Cody detailed. He seems to really enjoy the game.

I really think Meyer should be the higher ranked prospect, but it would be nice to see both on the big club by the All Star break.

I don't know.  20 years old with 38 BB & 140 SO and progressed 3 levels.   That is pretty good.

love this guy!  Good to see Berrios so highly ranked by Fangraphs as well.

3 levels, yes, but let's not pretend that Berrios has even mastered AA yet.  Of his 140 IP in 2014, only around 40 of those were in the upper minors, and just the one game in AAA.  And quite frankly, his numbers in the upper minors were much less impressive, ie, his K/9 dropped from 10.20 in A+ ball to 6.20 in AA.  I expect he will do well this season, but let's not start organizing around the exact date-certain for the Berrios parade from Twin Cities International to Target Field quite yet.

I don't think anyone is implying that he's mastered AA ball. But looking at the numbers it does seem that he more than held his own, especially considering that he was almost five years younger than the average competition (much of which also has seen major league pitching). I think Berrios has given Twins fans every reason to be very optimistic. But I also understand the healthy skepticism. My point is just that sometimes prospects do pan out, and Berrios has certainly shown signs of overcoming some of the harsher criticisms people have leveled at him.

At that age, he seems like a guy the Twins would only call up this year if they are 1) absolutely horrible and desperate to hold fan interest, or 2) have bunch of pitchers break down. Otherwise, I'd be pleasantly surprised if he pitches for the Twins this season. Just one man's humble opinion.

Not sure why you would say is height is a disadvantage. There are several great pitchers who are 6 ft., such as Perkins, Denny McClain, Warren Spahn, and several other great pitchers.

Think of it this way - the strike zone is a box you're throwing into. The average SP is taller than Berrios for a reason - if you release the ball at the top of your motion, it goes into the strike zone with a sinking motion. If you compare Berrios to pitchers 4 or 5 inches taller, it will naturally come in flatter, which is theoretically easier to track and to hit.

However, nobody said Berrios is destined to fail because of this disadvantage. It is only that - a disadvantage. Guys like Johan had enough other tools to offset that. I wouldn't get too stuck on the word disadvantage. All these guys are working with disadvantages. They just need to overcome them.

The height (or lack thereof) is primarily a disadvantage for pitchers who throw a flat fastball and sliders with relatively little break. All of the workout videos, etc., are great theater for the fans and demonstrate Berrios' commitment to being the best athlete he can be, but the most important factor to his elevated prospect status, imo, is his improved movement on his pitches. Significant movement is what will counter his lack of physical height, just as Santana's changeup helped make his height a non-factor.

I'm a big fan of both Berrios and Stewart, but, like jokin, I have Meyer still ranked higher than both, simply because I believe he has similar upside potential and he's closer than the two younger guys to being in a position to start realizing that potential.

It's the image of these three pitchers all reaching their potential, while serving in the same future Twins rotation, that can make even the most jaded of Twins fans feel just a little giddy.

Concur, strongly.

 

Nothing convincing has been written in the Berrios and Stewart write-ups that makes either Stewart or Berrios appear to have earned them the better chance to be an Ace over Meyer.  

IMHO, I would have to say its probably his control at such an early age. There have been several reports and quotes saying that he has outstanding control of all his pitches. Combining that with his "stuff" and work ethic makes him such a good prospect. We've seen in the big leagues that throwing 100mph doesn't play if you can't put it over the plate, which appears to be Meyer's issue. Some state that all Meyer has to do is become like Randy Johnson and learn how to control his massive frame in his late 20's. That'd be great! However, it's unlikely. Berrios doesn't have some magical physical gift to learn. His talent is already there. He needs to learn how to pitch to big league hitters and work on the movement of his pitches, the type of things coaches excel at and coaches love hard workers.

I guess what I'm saying is that Berrios has everything you could want in a frontline starter...minus 5-7 inches of height. Works VERY hard, good personality, good velocity, good control, a mix of pitches, reasonable health history, and he's ambitious. All these things work towards making him a #3 prospect. Don't get me wrong, I love some Alex Meyer pitching, but his control sucks and pro hitters will wait for that mistake pitch and crush it.

Also, let me reference a bleacher report article that emphasizes command as what differentiates an Ace from a #1 starter. "The bottom line is this: If you have either a deep repertoire or a nasty signature pitch and very good command, you have a shot to become a No. 1-caliber pitcher."

I personally get annoyed when I hear complaints about a guy because of his height.  I also get annoyed when they knock him for getting guys out because he struck them out with a high fastball.  I read an article that the current trend for hitters are doing better job against low fastballs, and the HR comparison between high and low pitches was very close.  He sounds like a guy that will continue to work on his craft and make adjustments to what hitters are doing to him.  It is important to keep the hitters guessing, and I feel this guy will do that.

wasn't Berrios almost 5 years younger than league average age when he was at AA ball?

I agree with Doc--Berrios reminds me of Pedro. I think we should doubt JO at our own peril. He met all his goals last year. Wasn't his goal this year to break camp in the rotation? (Could you imagine that?!?)

Comparison of Meyer to Johnson minor league stats to the exact same age (Meyer 3 years/Johnson 4 years).  Does Meyer's control, relatively speaking, really suck? (remember, he was adding a new pitch in 2014)::

 

I don't think it's fair to compare Meyer to Randy Johnson, Mr. Statistical Anomaly, HOF pitcher and master of all things involving throwing a baseball including bird destruction. If Alex Meyer becomes a HOF pitcher winning multiple Cy Youngs after age 30 then I'll eat the crow he blows up with a baseball (and love every bite if he does it in a Twins uniform). 

When the team basically tells you to stop walking guys and you'll move up and you continue to walk guys, have high pitch counts, and in general fail to do everything they ask you to do involving control...your command sucks.

Berrios is simply a more complete package at a younger age. Meyer has some better qualities but he also has issues, issues that make Berrios the slightly better prospect...in some people's eyes. 

 

 

Berrios is simply a more complete package at a younger age. Meyer has some better qualities but he also has issues, issues that make Berrios the slightly better prospect...in some people's eyes. 

I like Berrios better as well.  And there are a few prospects people, like Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel, who do as well.

Very mature for his age. I would put his off season training schedule up against anyone. BTW, his wife and daughter are absolutely adorable! Can't wait to see him next month.

I like Berrios better as well.  And there are a few prospects people, like Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel, who do as well.

Oddly enough, I'm more excited for Meyer. I can understand, argue, and perhaps agree that Berrios is the better prospect...but Meyer's stuff is downright fun to watch. Granted, I haven't seen more of Berrios than his futures game performance.

* Meyer has the best chance in becoming an Ace.

 

** I think it's fair to say you generally mis-characterized what the strategy was and what was accomplished by Meyer and the Twins in 2014, when in point of fact, the stated strategy #1 goal was focused particularly on getting Meyer through a healthy complete year along with continued development of his third pitch (the pitch which accounted for much of his command/control issues).

 

*** And though I know we both agree that they are close in their prospect status, without a decent amount of data in the upper minors, Meyer deserves the nod.

* Probably, yes.

** Absolutely health was #1. Lower pitch limits were set. I would think they would want him to be efficient with those fewer pitches. I'm pretty sure they've always had issues with his control and want him to walk fewer people.

**(a) Honest question, do you have any reports saying his control issues were related to that new 3 finger changeup he introduced last April? The reports early on last year were that he was really liking it. I was hoping it would be the "breakthrough" they were calling it.

*** Personal opinion at this point. I think you may weight their ceilings higher than I. But, they are extremely close in my eyes too. I'm pretty excited to see how things work out this year (who isn't?). 

I like Berrios a ton. We'll see how his secondary stuff continues to develop; if he continues to improve his change and curve he can be really really good.

I agree with Seth; look for him to arrive in 2016 unless things go badly for the rotation AND he's dominating. No need to add him to the 40-man early while they're still working on getting his innings up towards 170 or so and working on his secondary pitches.

I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.