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Heading into the winter, Derek Falvey’s shopping list was expected to include a right-handed bat, a center fielder, and a starting pitcher. That last item on the list could be the most important, after Rocco Baldelli’s club had one of the better groups in the game a season ago. Minnesota still has depth, but Pablo Lopez will be looking for a running mate.
Both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray threw substantial innings for the Twins last season. The latter finished runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the American League Cy Young award. That reflected how good of a season he had and indicated the payday he would command from any potential suitor. While Maeda didn’t have the same tier of results, he fared well, and deals for pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson paved a path for him to benefit financially.
So why didn’t the Twins show a greater desire to retain either of their departing starters? That answer is multi-faceted, but it isn’t exactly complicated. This front office has shied away from paying arms in free agency. That’s a logical stance when you understand that you’re getting someone else’s leftovers. Every free agent is hitting the market because their former employer allowed them to do so, and they are likely doing so at what baseball calls an advanced age.
The Twins, under Falvey, have never spent more than $20 million on a starting pitcher, and that was a two-year deal for Michael Pineda that allowed him to bide his time during rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expecting them to change course on that process with Maeda (as he enters his late 30s) or Gray (as he’s paid more based on recent performance) never seemed like a good bet.
Realistically, the Twins didn’t retain the services of either Gray or Maeda because the length of each deal wouldn’t make sense. Maeda finally landed a deal that wasn’t full of incentives, and he’ll make a base salary nearly the same as the eight-year deal he signed when coming over from Japan. A total guarantee of $24 million didn’t need to be prohibitive for Minnesota, but their focus was on Maeda being a one-year arm for them, if he was to be back at all. Scott Boras was set on finding at least a two-year deal, and with the Tigers having more of a need, they were the team that bit.
Regarding Gray, Minnesota was interested in making a short-term deal. They proved the earnestness of that sentiment by making the Qualifying Offer. Of course, Gray would never accept that one-year pact, so it was a moot point, but the Twins would have gladly paid $25 million for a season or two of his services. The problem is that the market was always going to give Gray a third year, and Minnesota being interested in that seemed like a non-starter. He hasn’t been the most durable arm throughout his career, and it’s unlikely that will change for the better as he ages. St. Louis had to find their ace, and pairing talent with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt before it got too late was necessary.
Now, the front office is tasked with replacing the innings and starts made by both Maeda and Gray. They went into the offseason assuming that would be the case, and now it has become a reality. That the Twins will stand pat remains highly unlikely, and expecting them to add someone like Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ, or Matt Shoemaker doesn’t seem realistic, either. They are already exploring the trade market, and it seems most likely that they will make their addition that way. Whom they land remains uncertain, but plenty of fine candidates are out there.
After a successful run in 2023, it may have been fun to run it back. A similar outcome with everyone repeating success or performing at a higher level wouldn't have been probable, though, and Minnesota must carve a new path toward more optimal results. Maeda was a fun way to get involved in the Mookie Betts excitement with the Dodgers, and acquiring Gray was a well-executed move that has come full circle.
It’s okay to be sad that both are gone, while understanding that the right decision was made.
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