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    What Do The Twins See In Tyler Kinley?

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Twins Video

    It's no secret around here that I have mostly been a fan of what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done since taking over the Twins front office. Their decisions seem to be consistently guided by good data, intel, and intuition.

    So when I see a perplexing course of action like this year's Rule 5 draft, I wonder what I'm missing.

    When the deadline arrived for teams to protect players from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota conspicuously added only three, leaving a number of vulnerable prospects exposed. Among them were several hard-throwing relievers in their mid-20s, including Nick Burdi and Luke Bard, both of whom ended up being selected last week.

    The Twins, desperate for quality relievers and evidently playing the internal numbers game by signing a one-year plug, in the person of Fernando Rodney, might have let two essentially MLB-ready arms with real upside get away... for nothing.

    The Twins did need some space on the 40-man, so they could add Rodney (and hopefully Yu Darvish!), but one spot was clearly designated for a Rule 5 addition of their own. That ended up being Tyler Kinley, a 26-year-old right-hander plucked from the Marlins organization.

    What is it about Kinley that made him appealing enough for the Twins to lose Bard and especially Burdi, who could've been stashed back on the 60-day DL at the start of the season while rehabbing from Tommy John?

    On the surface, there's no obvious answer. Kinley was a 16th-round pick for Miami back in 2013, and has since put up a 3.83 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162 pro outings (all but three out of the bullpen). He has averaged slightly more than a strikeout per inning but his control has been mediocre, and terrible above Single-A. In 27 appearances with Class-AA Jacksonville in 2017, he posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.

    Kinley wasn't among John Sickels's preseason top 20 Marlins prospects. He wasn't even an honorable mention. In fact, Kinley has never made any kind of prospect list I could find. The consensus seems to be that he's a big (6'4", 204) righty with a live fastball and quality slider, plus a history of control problems.

    That profile doesn't exactly differentiate him from a litany of minor-league relievers – much less a pair of high-performing high draft picks whose development the club had invested in significantly. Bard was the 42nd player taken in 2012 and signed for $1.2 million. Burdi was the 46th player taken in 2014 and also received a $1.2 million bonus. Both have mostly looked the part when healthy.

    Kinley, meanwhile, was drafted 472nd overall in 2013, and has been very inconsistent on the mound since then. The only thing that really stands out on the stat sheet is his performance this year in the Dominican Winter League, where he has allowed five hits in 18 2/3 innings with a whopping 31 strikeouts. However, he has also issued 11 walks.

    It bears noting that Justin Haley was also coming off a sterling performance in the DWL when the Twins took him a year ago, somewhat out of the blue. That selection didn't really pay any dividends, and it now seems clear that Minnesota could have found a better way to use its No. 1 pick in the 2016 Rule 5 draft, or just given the roster spot to someone else.

    I'm calling on you all to help me figure this out. What do the Twins see in Tyler Kinley?

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN
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    Featured Comments

    nytwinsfan

    nytwinsfan 2,611

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    I can see Burdi coming back as the first year after TJ surgery if usually not good.  Bard could be well one where the new FO outsmarted themselves.  I can see the Angels using Bard as a chip if they need to acquire an asset at midseason.  He then will get to a club that can stash him for the rest of the year.  In my mind this was not a good move.

    Yeah, Burdi I can understand, but Bard? That's kind of crazy given his numbers last year.

    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 39,205

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    Another data point in my “I desperately WANT to like Falvine, but there’s precious little to actually base anything on so far” file.

    Other than Castro, and some rearranging of peripheral off-field personnel, what is it someone can point out to me that I’m missing?

     

    If I was a wiseacre I'd point to their record last year.

     

    They're only getting a pass from me through the offseason. The new personnel hires have me hopeful, but if they fail to get Darvish inked and/or make a huge trade to make the front of the rotation able to match the big boys of the AL, I'm not going to be happy.

    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Another data point in my “I desperately WANT to like Falvine, but there’s precious little to actually base anything on so far” file.

    Other than Castro, and some rearranging of peripheral off-field personnel, what is it someone can point out to me that I’m missing?

     

    If you are bringing in a pitcher who is wild and can touch 100 mph, is Castro the guy you want back there?

    Edited by Doomtints
    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    The FO has to feel that Burdi will never completely recover from the arm issues he has.  That is the only explanation I can come up with for not keeping him over someone like Kinley.  After failing to trade him I guess they figured he wasn't worth keeping around.

     

    They probably didn't protect him because they thought no one would select him. In most years they probably would have been right.

     

    Is Burdi the next Rincon or Romero? I doubt it, so I wouldn't worry about it all that much.

    markos

    markos 2,012

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    This is my interpretation of the front office's thinking with the Rule V draft:
    - Hard throwing right-handed relievers are not a rare comodity across baseball. Every team has multiple guys in their minor league system that can throw hard but lack the results/durability to be a difference maker in the majors. Some small subset of those guys will have the light turn on and be dominate. Predicting the breakouts is hard - maybe impossible - so it is best to maximize chances.
    - Burdi is damaged goods to a certain degree. Have Atlanta nix the trade due after seeing his medicals is a pretty big red flag.
    - Given the above, there was a good chance that Burdi or Bard would have been passed over in the draft.
    - Even though they were drafted, there is a decent chance (maybe 50%) that they will be returned.
    - There were probably some players that they really like and were hoping would drop to pick 20. I'm not convinced that Kinley was the #1 guy on their board from the beginning.

     

    So playing that all out, there was a chance that by opening day the Twins would have all 3 players in their system, with only the Rule V pick taking up a 40-man spot. Additionally, there was also a chance that one of the players that they really liked would have dropped to #20. That is the best outcome, and conveniently also the outcome with the most roster flexibility. The risk was that they lose Bard and Burdi for essentially nothing, which is what might happen (there is still a chance that one or both gets returned). But given the rates at which Rule V draftees get returned (and Burdi's medicals), I think it was a risk worth taking.

     

    To sum up, I'm not convinced that they like Kinley more than Burdi or Bard. I think they went with the roster decisions that maximized the potential upside and roster flexibility.

    Tom Froemming

    Tom Froemming 10,524

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    I'm guessing the Twins think they've identified something specific about Kinley's mechanics they feel like can be addressed in order to help him get the ball over the plate more frequently. They'll take the spring to figure out if they can fix him. I doubt they will -- I'd only put about a five percent chance on him cracking the Opening Day roster -- but maybe they'll be able to swing a trade in order to keep him in the system and send him down to Rochester (like they did with Scott Diamond).

     

    The Twins clearly didn't think Burdi and Bard were that great. It's that simple. And we also know the Braves passed on Burdi when the Jaime Garcia trade was being negotiated and the Phillies traded him away for a modest amount of international spending slot. Pretend money, basically. Burdi has pitched 20 innings over the past two seasons, maybe the Twins simply think he'll never be healthy. It happens (see: Zumaya, Joel).

     

    Bard had a great year ... but it was as a 26-year-old mostly in Double-A. If Bard was really MLB ready, why did he spend the majority of the year in Chattanooga? Even if he would've been added to the 40 man, it's likely he would have also immediately became the most likely guy to be DFA'd. I would have liked to see both Burdi and Bard stick around, and hope they'll be returned eventually, but I can see how/why things got to this point.

     

    This can be applied to Kinley as well, but how many young/unestablished right-handed relief pitchers do you need on the 40 man? The Twins already have Busenitz, Chargois, Curtiss, Duffey, Hildenberger and Pressly. They added Rodney, and it's possible both Hughes and May might end up out in the pen, too. Plus, one of Jorge/Littell/Romero/Slegers could end up transitioning to the pen. They also still have Reed and Stewart in the mix, but not on the roster. At a certain point you just run out of space. 

    Guest

    Guest

  • Guests

    • Posted

    Conjectures:

     

    Kinley - FO sees something they think they can fix with their new pitching development team, which they think is much more competent than Miami’s has been.

     

    Bard and Burdi - hyped relievers from the TR era all seem to be getting short leashes, perhaps deservedly. However, it may also be a situation where the new boss gives less opportunity to the old boss’s guys. I know everyone uses analytics and wants to win, but a human factor will still exist, especially with lower impact players like injured middle relievers.

    Tomj14

    Tomj14 1,146

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Isn't this the problem with hording prospects? eventually you will lose them for nothing because there isn't enough room on the 40 man roster with prospects that are not elite. This is one of many reasons team take a chance and trade young ones before they get exposed and don't make it anyway.

    Maybe the Yanks traded us Enns and Littlell because they would need to be added to the their 40 man roster and they didn't value them in that way, and while the trades looks good for the Twins now if they don't end up contributing to the Twins or being added in a trade for somebody else, I don't see how this ends up being a good trade because they took up 40 man roster space?

     

    Edited by Tomj14
    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Conjectures:

    Kinley - FO sees something they think they can fix with their new pitching development team, which they think is much more competent than Miami’s has been.

    Bard and Burdi - hyped relievers from the TR era all seem to be getting short leashes, perhaps deservedly. However, it may also be a situation where the new boss gives less opportunity to the old boss’s guys. I know everyone uses analytics and wants to win, but a human factor will still exist, especially with lower impact players like injured middle relievers.

     

    The truth might be more simple. They didn't protect Burdi because he is injured and were surprised they lost him. They added Kinley as the nearest comp they could find upon losing Burdi.

     

    Luke Bard is the one I don't understand. The dude looks ready to go to me. Bard may be the elite set up guy the Twins are lacking. It was a no brainer that Bard would be taken if not protected.

    Edited by Doomtints
    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,390

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Remember Atlanta was going to trade for Burdi knowing full well he just underwent TJ. Then changed their mind when they saw his medicals. 

    I'm not sure it was quite so simple as that. That was an early version of the deal, and there may have been cash coming from Atlanta at that point. Rather than changing their opinion of Burdi, maybe the medicals changed the Braves estimate of whether the Twins would protect Burdi this winter, and they didn't want to pay for a guy who could be available to them in Rule 5.

    2wins87

    2wins87 2,890

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Another data point in my “I desperately WANT to like Falvine, but there’s precious little to actually base anything on so far” file.

    Other than Castro, and some rearranging of peripheral off-field personnel, what is it someone can point out to me that I’m missing?

     

     

    Rowson appears to be a very good hire based on the overall performance of the offense last year.  Adrianza was very good for being picked off waivers.  It's early to grade the draft last year but I liked the way they used their big pool to get a number of impact players.  And actually their best move was probably driving a hard bargain on Dozier and ultimately retaining him rather than trading him below value just because he looked like their best trade chip.

     

    They haven't been perfect, but they seem competent, and I'm still withholding most of my judgement until we see how they build the team for this year and beyond.

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Another data point in my “I desperately WANT to like Falvine, but there’s precious little to actually base anything on so far” file.

    Other than Castro, and some rearranging of peripheral off-field personnel, what is it someone can point out to me that I’m missing?

    Probably the stuff for another thread (and then about a gazillion more after that), but I tend to fall in this camp. I'd say the most encouraging thing about the regime change so far has been the actions of Jim Pohlad and company, in that, at least so far, he has given us many indications that the budget is substantially larger now.

     

    As for Rule V, I don't think Falvine said to themselves "lets swap out Burdi for Kinley". As related as they are, they're not connected.

     

    The Burdi decision is inexplicable. Wouldn't it be nice if one of our high-access beat writers were rigorous and vigorous in their attempts to extract an explanation?

    Edited by birdwatcher
    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,390

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    To be fair to Kinley, his worst numbers at AA were to open the 2017 season -- 10 runs in 8 IP, .987 OPS, only 21.7% K rate. Then he got sent back to high-A and dominated, and returned later to AA and was better -- 9 runs in 18 IP, .664 OPS, 30% K rate. And not to get too selective, but most of that was one game where he was charged with 4 runs without retiring a batter.  He finished the regular season with the following 8 game stretch: 10 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 15 K, .280 OPS. (He did serve up 2 solo HR in a playoff appearance, though.)  Still, that's only AA, and while it might hint at talent, it doesn't suggest consistency.

     

    Kinley's Dominican Winter League stats are also a bit suspect. The league as a whole has a 3.34 ERA, which is even less run scoring than the notoriously pitcher-friendly Florida State League (where Kinley also excelled in 2017).  In addition to Justin Haley doing well there, Sam Deduno is still pitching there. Alexi Casilla and Danny Santana are both hitting over .300 there right now too. Very hard to project from those stats!

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,390

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    So playing that all out, there was a chance that by opening day the Twins would have all 3 players in their system, with only the Rule V pick taking up a 40-man spot. 

    Even if we protected him from Rule 5, Burdi wouldn't have been effectively taking a 40-man spot by opening day -- he will be placed on the 60-day DL.

     

     

    - Burdi is damaged goods to a certain degree. Have Atlanta nix the trade due after seeing his medicals is a pretty big red flag.

    I mentioned upthread, but it's not clear that the Burdi-Garcia trade was the same as the eventual Ynoa-Garcia trade. If the Braves had been willing to eat some of Garcia's salary for Burdi, them backing out is not necessarily a "big red flag". Maybe they didn't want to pay for Burdi and also have to protect him while injured from Rule 5?  Maybe they thought there was a chance they could select him in Rule 5 (he didn't last that long, although the Braves drafted another RH reliever instead).

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 58,914

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Every year people freak out about the rule 5 and every year we realize it was just a bunch of handringing for nothing.

     

    Agreed on the players htey lose.....not agreed on keeping a guy on the 25 man for too long.....let's hope they learned from last year.

    Nick Nelson

    Nick Nelson 16,208

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    Every year people freak out about the rule 5 and every year we realize it was just a bunch of handringing for nothing.

    Is it? There's a real opportunity cost to letting someone like J.R. Graham or Justin Haley occupy a 25-man roster spot that could've been used another way. 

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,390

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Bard had a great year ... but it was as a 26-year-old mostly in Double-A. If Bard was really MLB ready, why did he spend the majority of the year in Chattanooga? Even if he would've been added to the 40 man, it's likely he would have also immediately became the most likely guy to be DFA'd. 

    To be fair to Bard, prior to 2017 he only had 14 career innings at AA, and those were at the end of 2016, his first full season back from missing multiple seasons with injury. That might have caused the Twins to slow his advancement a bit.  And he not only performed well at AA in 2017, but he didn't miss a beat after making his AAA debut -- and beyond the stats, wasn't it reported that he had the best fastball spin rate in the whole system, along with Gonsalves?

     

    And if needing his 40-man spot was a concern, why draft Kinley? Kinley is effectively locked into a spot through March now.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,390

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    To those thinking those relievers will be returned to the Twins, it should be noted that the Angels, despite being a big market club, kept a Rule 5 guy on their roster for the entire season each year from 2013-2015 (although their 2013 pick went down with TJ surgery, and was actually selected again and ultimately returned to his original club after the season).

     

    The Pirates haven't been as active in Rule 5 (at least not until now, with 2 picks on their current roster), but given their financial constraints and a bullpen that has shed 3 of its top 4 (by innings) since the trade deadline, I could see them looking to keep Burdi too.

    Tom Froemming

    Tom Froemming 10,524

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

     

    To be fair to Bard, prior to 2017 he only had 14 career innings at AA, and those were at the end of 2016, his first full season back from missing multiple seasons with injury. That might have caused the Twins to slow his advancement a bit.  And he not only performed well at AA in 2017, but he didn't miss a beat after making his AAA debut -- and beyond the stats, wasn't it reported that he had the best fastball spin rate in the whole system, along with Gonsalves?

     

    And if needing his 40-man spot was a concern, why draft Kinley? Kinley is effectively locked into a spot through March now.

    Knowing what I know, I'd have taken Bard over Kinley. Actually, I'd have taken White Sox LH Double-A starter Jordan Guerrero over both of them. He went undrafted, so what do I know?

     

    It's possible the Twins offer Kinley back to Miami before March ... pretty sure they could do it today if they wanted to. Who knows, maybe the Marlins would decline to pay the $25,000 required to get Kinley back (that org is in a weird place right now) and the Twins could even DFA him and sneak him through waivers. I have no idea, but I have a really hard time believing the Twins will go out of their way to hang on to Kinley when it comes time to make the next round of difficult roster decisions unless he shows them something special.

     

    Why take him in the first place then? I dunno, maybe they just felt like playing the lottery. 

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,390

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    It's possible the Twins offer Kinley back to Miami before March ... pretty sure they could do it today if they wanted to. 

    Technically possible, but not likely. I'm not aware of any Rule 5 pick being returned or even let go on waivers before mid-March at the earliest:

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

     

    Practically speaking, Rule 5 selections are basically locked into their team's 40-man roster into spring training.

    Tom Froemming

    Tom Froemming 10,524

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

     

    Technically possible

    That's all I'm trying to say. If they sign a guy today, thus filling the 40-man roster, there's nothing I'm aware of that would prevent them from dumping Kinley if they wanted to open up a spot for somebody else. Everything's scribbled in pencil at this point.

    DaveW

    DaveW 9,037

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Is it? There's a real opportunity cost to letting someone like J.R. Graham or Justin Haley occupy a 25-man roster spot that could've been used another way. 

    I meant more in terms of people getting all bummed with who they 'lose'

    But yes, keeping bad players with no future on 25 man rosters is certainly an issue, but for the Twins it hasn't been mutually exclusive to JUST rule 5 guys. 

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,390

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    That's all I'm trying to say. If they sign a guy today, thus filling the 40-man roster, there's nothing I'm aware of that would prevent them from dumping Kinley if they wanted to open up a spot for somebody else. Everything's scribbled in pencil at this point.

    But what I am saying is, that doesn't happen with Rule 5 picks before spring training, not just for the Twins but anywhere else in the league as far as I know.

     

    Despite the more modest financial commitment, dumping Kinley today is about as likely as the Twins releasing Rodney or Pineda (also technically possible).  It can't be considered any kind of meaningful feature of his selection, any more than DFAing Bard this winter would have been (guys added to the 40-man in November don't get dropped before spring training either).

    prouster

    prouster 1,799

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Is it? There's a real opportunity cost to letting someone like J.R. Graham or Justin Haley occupy a 25-man roster spot that could've been used another way. 

     

    In a vacuum I agree, but I don't think Graham and Haley are good examples. Graham's performance in 2015 was at least tolerable for the 25th guy on the roster (4.95 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9). Haley threw 18 innings last year, most of them in mop up duty. The alternative was what? Jason Wheeler? A few more innings of Busenitz? I just don't think it's been an actual issue for the Twins.

     

    Going forward, though, they'll need all 25 spots to be productive.

    RaymondLuxuryYacht

    RaymondLuxuryYacht 599

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    No good answer...Best case senario they outsmarted themselves...If they really wanted him (and were ONLY ones who knew he'd be good :), they could have likely had him for much less than Burdi and/or Bard. I've generally been a fan of the FO but they tried way too hard here to be the smartest kid in the room.

    Not sure I understand how that is the best-case scenario – seems to me the best-case scenario is that they know something I don’t.  Coincidentally, that seems like the most likely scenario as well.

    KGB

    KGB 666

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    If I was a wiseacre I'd point to their record last year.

    Given the moves at the trade deadline, I think you could make a very good argument that the Twins won despite the front office, not because of the them.

     

    Unless we are going with the "Major League" analogy and their lack of supporting the playoff run helped motivate the team.



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