What are the Twins’ Toughest Arbitration Decisions?

Duran and Topa are no brainers.  I think the Twins have to offer arbitration to Castro and possibly trade him.  I think the key to Castro is giving the guy some days off.  Baldelli wore him out.  I would also reduce the number of positions he plays so he can focus a bit on the fundamentals.  It's one thing to value utility players; it's another thing running them into the ground.

1 minute ago, LewFordLives said:

I don't see any way Castro is with this team next year. The Twins already have $90 million on the books even before arbitration guys are added. He is a luxury they simply cannot afford.

One name that was not on the list in the article  is Larnach. I expect he'll be offered a contract, but I think there's a good chance he's not with the Twins next year. I don't see how having both him and Wallner in the same lineup makes any sense . 

Wallner in Left Field, Larnach in Right Field.

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

Two strikeout prone lefties. I suspect they will keep right field open for Rodriguez and/or Jenkins.

Wallner will be in RF. He has a plus arm and the small RF at Target Field should compensate for his issues with range. Larnach is a decent fielding LF when he isn't hobbled with turf toe.

Rodriguez has barely seen AAA and Jenkins has barely seen AA. Neither is an option at the start of the season.

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Wallner will be in RF. He has a plus arm and the small RF at Target Field should compensate for his issues with range. Larnach is a decent fielding LF when he isn't hobbled with turf toe.

Rodriguez has barely seen AAA and Jenkins has barely seen AA. Neither is an option at the start of the season.

You need a strong arm in Left Field NOT Right Field; Larnach has a week arm which would mean the opponents would have a field day with doubles or scoring from Second.

Larnach's fielding history is FAR better in Right Field.

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

You need a strong arm in Left Field NOT Right Field; Larnach has a week arm which would mean the opponents would have a field day with doubles or scoring from Second.

You're wrong. The throw from LF to 3B is much shorter than the throw from RF. If you want to keep baserunners from going first to third you need the arm in RF. Why do you think Shannon Stewart played LF?

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Expect to see a lot of opponents going first-to-third on singles.

/ ninja'd again. "Life moves pretty fast."  ― Ferris Bueller

Then Kepler had better be a Twin next year.

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Castro was a below average CF. Martin was the worst CF in MLB. There's a big gap between them.

You said this team needs to get better defensively. Castro leading the team in PAs while being a below average defender basically everywhere doesn't do that IMO. 

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You said this team needs to get better defensively. Castro leading the team in PAs while being a below average defender basically everywhere doesn't do that IMO. 

Every plate appearance Castro took away from Margot, Martin and Julien made the team better defensively. Keeping Miranda away from 3B makes the team better defensively. Buxton and Correa missed large chunks of the season. Without Castro they could have had the worst defense other than the White Sox.

According to Sportrac, we have an estimated payroll of $114,7 million before considering all of the pre-arb and arbitration players discussed above.  I can immediately wipe off $18 million through buyouts of Margot and Farmer.  Margot's buyout is paid by the Rays according to Sportrac, so there really is no reason to keep him.  If we take the numbers presented in the article as accurate, that adds $33.2 million.  We are already at $129.9 million for 16 players before we pay our pre-arb players and FA scrap heap signees.  Let's assume we fill out our roster from our farm system or scrap heap signees making about $1 million each, which adds another 10 million, which we need to cut somehow to get back down to $130 million.

This is where the FO needs to get creative.  I agree with the suggestion that we sign and trade Castro.  I really want him on the team, but he's unfortunately an expensive luxury when I could have had someone like Solano, who signed with SD for around the league minimum.  I felt that Farmer was a luxury for this year's team even before his performance.  Dobnak is earning $3 million to take a spot in St. Paul.  It's clear that he has been passed up by Festa, Matthews, and SWR and needs to find a way to get rid of his salary likely through a trade.  Another question would be how much do we have faith in Camargo?  If so, maybe we can find a way to trade Vasquez and get rid of the $10 million on the books.  Maybe we can sign Grandal for a $2-3 million contract.  Those moves, if possible, clears $19.2 million and gives us a chance to sign some players to potentially upgrade our bench, bullpen, or even leave a little meat on the bone so we can make a deadline trade since it is apparent by this year's deadline that this payroll amount is a hard cap with no wiggle room.

Yeah, I don't think any of the players listed are all that tough when you are taking about offering arbitration or not. Even Kiriloff might come back and justify all the hype. And even a relatively expensive Castro is still good value. 

On 10/5/2024 at 8:25 PM, stringer bell said:

If they are all let go, who goes on the 40-man roster? If they drop three or four players in order to pay major league minimum they are giving up before the season starts. 

Yes. What is your point?

The discussion here is really about replacement value:  If player X is non-tendered, would you be able to replace his value for less money.  Guys like Kiriloff are cheap, have had some MLB success, and still in the "prove it" mode.  Duran will most assuredly outplay his contract, even if he isn't "elite".  Same can be said for Topa.  Remember we are talking about 1-year contracts here.

Castro will be a very interesting case.  He has probably earned the $6m contract for next year, but with the Twins penny-pinching, it is hard to say what they will do.  If Castro is non-tendered, or signed and traded for prospects, methinks it would be an ominous sign for the coming season.

23 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I don't see any way Castro is with this team next year. The Twins already have $90 million on the books even before arbitration guys are added. He is a luxury they simply cannot afford.

One name that was not on the list in the article  is Larnach. I expect he'll be offered a contract, but I think there's a good chance he's not with the Twins next year. I don't see how having both him and Wallner in the same lineup makes any sense . 

Because they offer different skill sets. Larnach was one of the only guys still putting together professional plate appearances at the end. They’ll never trade Wallner but if I had to pick one to trade and one to keep I’d keep Larnach 10 times out of 10.

I think Castro has got to be traded. Maybe you get a similar deal as the polanco deal. Maybe a fringe prospect and 2 serviceable or close role guys. Package Vazquez with a couple of prospects and get rid of that 10 million. Idk what it takes but to get that off the books I’m willing to package anyone but the top 5. Maybe you get a good role backup catcher in FA or go with Camargo. I’m not sure what it takes but I think you’ve gotta go get Goldschmidt with that savings. If there’s anyone similar I’m all ears. A veteran guy you can maybe catch a solid year from with the savings. Start identifying BP arms in the minors. Not everyone will be able to start. Varland full time in the BP will help as well as another live arm. Paddack has to go. Any salary relief is a plus at this point. Whatever it takes on that. There’s ways and if the FO goes about this right the Twins will still be strong. Just more competition now but that’s the fun of baseball.

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Every plate appearance Castro took away from Margot, Martin and Julien made the team better defensively. Keeping Miranda away from 3B makes the team better defensively. Buxton and Correa missed large chunks of the season. Without Castro they could have had the worst defense other than the White Sox.

Margot found plenty of innings with Castro around. It's another topic, but that's part of the problem with the mix & match philosophy this organization deploys. I mean they let the guy set the all time record for PH futility. Martin might be able to match Castro's defense at 2B. Willi is better than Miranda, but Lewis and Lee have a claim to 3B before him, and Willi likely won't rival the offensive output of at least 2 of those guys. If Julien's 2024 is the bar to clear, ok, but that isn't exactly tough.  

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Castro was stretched at short and center and the best defenders on the team are Correa and Buxton, so prolonged use of Willi at short and center is going to hurt the defense compared to Buxton and Correa.

Willi is okay to above average at second, third and left field. If he plays the majority of the time in those positions he won’t be replacing superior defenders and he’s about league average himself. 

Being an okay defender isn't enough to overcome the offensive upside of Lewis, Miranda, and Julien. Lee probably has a higher offensive potential as well and clearly he's a better defender. Castro is option 3 at each IF position, and even if his defense in the OF is average (I don't see him as a particularly adept OFer) his bat won't play for any length of time in LF. Maybe Kirilloff is isn't tendered and Miranda slides to 1B. 

Also to be clear, I'm not against Castro being the utility guy on this club. I'm totally on board for a guy who can occasionally play a corner OF spot (or CF in a pinch) and split some time between 3B and 2B. I don't think he's sticking around at $6M because he's a good defender at any of those positions. He fits exactly what this FO/management group loves to do. In either case, it's sad that $6M for a solid bench player is somehow a "burden," for the Twins, but here are I guess. Castro is no doubt valuable, I just don't see him as the defensive life preserver that others do. 

46 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

you’ve gotta go get Goldschmidt with that savings. If there’s anyone similar I’m all ears.

I would rather bet on 27-year-old Jose Miranda than 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt.

I keep wondering just how cheaply they could bring back Jorge Polanco. Seattle is going to buy out his option. For less than $5M, I will take my chances with 31-year-old Jorge Polanco as my free agent acquisition.

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would rather bet on 27-year-old Jose Miranda than 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt.

I keep wondering just how cheaply they could bring back Jorge Polanco. Seattle is going to buy out his option. For less than $5M, I will take my chances with 31-year-old Jorge Polanco as my free agent acquisition.

Well, that’s a very fair point. I’d be on board for taking a crack at polanco for sure. What do you do with Lee at that point? I want Lee playing 2B over Polanco. Cheaper, more upside and better defensively I believe. I don’t think they trade him. Polanco on a cheap deal makes sense. I just don’t know where to put him. One year deal maybe? That’s if we can shed Vazquez and one of Paddack or Castro maybe we go for a guy like Goldy on a semi cheaper deal and try to catch lightning like they did with Santana. Maybe Castro is the starting 2B and Lee starts the year in AAA. If that’s the case why not just go with Castro. So many questions that could be made simpler if ownership just expanded payroll by 10-15 million.

33 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

Well, that’s a very fair point. I’d be on board for taking a crack at polanco for sure. What do you do with Lee at that point? I want Lee playing 2B over Polanco. Cheaper, more upside and better defensively I believe. I don’t think they trade him. Polanco on a cheap deal makes sense. I just don’t know where to put him. One year deal maybe? That’s if we can shed Vazquez and one of Paddack or Castro maybe we go for a guy like Goldy on a semi cheaper deal and try to catch lightning like they did with Santana. Maybe Castro is the starting 2B and Lee starts the year in AAA. If that’s the case why not just go with Castro. So many questions that could be made simpler if ownership just expanded payroll by 10-15 million.

Lee starts the season in AAA working on his game until the inevitable injury. Switch-hitting Polanco means you don't have to have a platoon caddy for him. He had a bad season but recovered pretty well (.740 OPS 2nd half). Castro's playing time gets more heavily weighted to corner OF with Larnach or Wallner getting the DH spot.

They need a RH or switch hitting OF who can field. Profar or Santander will cost too much but they already have Castro on the roster. They have Keirsey to backup Buxton so Castro doesn't get overexposed in CF. Second basemen are typically cheaper to add in free agency than corner OF.

Kirilloff, Julien, Martin, Keirsey and Helman (all optionable) fight it out for the last couple slots with some likely waiver wire pickups.

Offering arbitration to eligible players is not a budget decision. It doesn’t matter whether the Twins plan to decrease, increase or maintain their budget. There is not reason it should be a factor in the decision.

The only factor in the decision is the excess value the player can be expected to provide over the expected arbitration award. The Twins front office needs to do two things well. They need to project the value next year including a good read of how other team’s perceive that player’s value. They also need to project the award.

Two years ago they offered Urshela arbitration and then were able to trade him to the Angels for Hidalgo. In this case Urshela offered little if any excess value but the Twins did get a young pitcher. Last year they offered Farmer a contract. I suspect no team saw any excess value and the Twins were unable to trade him.

Is Castro’s value clearly in excess of his projected award? That is all that matters. I given his age and value the last two years I don’t think this is a tough decision at all. He has excess value and is a tradeable asset if his salary does not fit the budget.

Topa? I think this is a risk. He has one season in his career of more than 7 major league innings. There are too many inexpensive relievers on the market with a better track record of health. Trading him for anything helpful unlikely. My fear is they sign him with the expectation he is a solution to their bullpen only to see him injured or ineffective.

Kirilloff’s option adds to his value. I have no idea how other team’s perceive his value but I think a trade is reasonable. I would start him in AAA and retain him. His option will give him chances to make it back in the roster.

Duran? This one isn’t a tough decision. There is excess value. He is an asset that can be traded. 

The Pohlads should either sell the team or hire enough good players to win a WS. Bantering about who to keep and where to play them is fun but at the end of the day, its just a fun exchange of ideas.  
With all the elite MiLB talent coming up and some already arriving in ‘23/24, we are poised to be very young and very frustrating at times.  The next couple seasons may not be WS chasers but then look at the D.tiggers…. Its a way better team scenario to watch than retreads like Margot and Pagan….