Week in Review: Battling the Big Dawgs

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I probably should have saved most of my coments made after today's game for this OP, lol. I guess, skip most of what I say if you've read those already. 

READ AT YOUR OWN RISK. But IF YOU DO, I think you're going to agree with me.

Agree on the Ryan lost in Houston was an opportunity for 5-1, but I'm super happy with 4-2, while initially crossing my fingers for 3-3. The defense didn't help Ryan in the Astros game, and I believe he wasn't close to 100%. He commented after the game how exhausted he was. IIRC, that bizarre 6 run inning was IT for the Astros. Just something closer to normal, we can win that game as well. 

1] This road trip in particular was nice due to two tough places to play. And Buxton only played 1 game, not including 1 inning in Sunday's game. It really has been a team effort. Forgive me if i missed this in the OP, are am just wrong, but haven't we won 5 of 6 series?

You chip away one series at a time.

2] I'm discouraged by Matthews' final line. Kudos to him for trying to "work his way through it to save the bullpen" but he admitted later he was struggling and trying to land differently to avoid coming out of the game. The good news it's just a cut on his foot and it shouldn't stop him from his next start. Still, I wonder if they will try to find a way to skip him or push him back a couple of days "just in case".

3] Keaschall is looking like a natural OF. He's getting better and better. So OK, he's no longer a 2B. Maybe that's best for HIS future and the Twins. But the future OF is crowded already. He's going to be a 5 position utility player come 2027. Mark my words.

4] It was really nice/fun to watch Raya finish Saturday's game. Even though it was a blowout, he showed control, velocity, and breaking stuff that showed movement and depth. Other than a SSSS, so far, he's only looked poor in his 1st inning debut. I am NOT going to believe he's going to make a difference until I see more...and I can easily see a few bad games where he gets sent down and comes up later...but I'm starting to see "IN PERSON" the type of potential he has. And I'll say again, I care more about growth and development than I do about immediate results. His FUTURE with the Twins is WAY MORE important than any disappointment for not turning out to be a SP.

5] Perhaps Martin isn't done yet. But he's also had enough time to prove he's a role player, not a starter.

6] I just HAD to throw this in. I still have no idea if Fedko is a legitimate ML 4th OF or not. He's still hunting for hits. BUT, he might not only be pressing, but his game action has also been severely limited. Unfortunately, he's been given the Keirsey, Outman role of barely playing. I don't think that's fair at all. Especially considering I simply DON'T UNDERSTAND this idea of playing with a 12 1/2 man roster.

But, IMO, I've liked what I've seen of him in very limited action. He's looked comfortable in the OF. He produced a solid SF for a run, and has looked like he knows what he's doing on the bases. With the Twins, or another team, I think he can play MLB.

7] THIS is the BIG ONE. I LOVE the Twins winning. I'd LOVE to see a .500 or better record or better when the season is done. And IF the Twins could somehow sneak in to the playoffs, it just makes the season that much more fun, regardless of final results. 

I have really enjoyed what Larnach has done this season. And I love that Bell is doing what he has done for his whole career, which is basically suck to begin the season and then crank it up to be a very dangerous BAT.

And I really don't want to deprive the 2026 Twins from having the best season they can, for the players, and for the fans. But at some point, we HAVE to be talking about 2027 at the same time!

Gomez has been an uncovered steal who might not be quite this good in the future, but he damn sure looks like a late inning keeper for the future. And Morris looks like the next great late inning reliever for the pen. Rojas's future is yet to be determined, but boy has he flashed! Bradley has flashed, got hurt, looked mortal, and has recently flashed again. Abel has flashed liked crazy, and should STILL be considered part of the future. Matthews has been OUTSTANDING save a couple of games. And Prielipp has not only debuted early, like Rojas, but has probably been even better than expected while going through normal growing pains.

We've already seen PART of the pitching future of the Twins. There are others in the immediate wings, some injured, that are part of the future as well.

And AGAIN, I DON'T want to derail a potentially interesting and fun season, but WHEN do the position players get their opportunity?

K-Pepper should be up in July. That means Gray is down, Kreidler gets to the SU player, and the INF is largely set, and better than how the season began.

Nick, you mentioned Clemens as a pissible trade piece. I disagree. I'm not an ignorant fan. And while I recognize Clemens BEST ML season was with the Twins in 2025, I just can't ignore that he has been even better, and more consistent in '26. I just can't believe that 3+ months of this season has him as a flash in the pan. He's not great, but he is good. And I think he has 2B locked down until Houston develops/debuts down the road. Unless, of course, the Twins suddenly acquire a 2B for 2027, which I doubt. He just means more to the Twins than moving him.

But let's be honest, Larnach and Bell just don't have a future on this team. And while I'd love to extend him, I just don't believe TP and the FO will extend Jeffers.

So Jeffers is moved. (Chringe). And while few fans want him to go to the Yankees, the truth is they can EASILY see him as a resign, and not just a rental. So the return might be solid.

If the Twins move both Larnach and Bell at the deadline, would that really mean they "gave up" on the season? 

Rodriguez is out of options and should be ready sometime in August. HE NEEDS TO PLAY. Roden appears beyond READY to contribute. (I see him as a better defender with more speed and AT LEAST as much power as Larnach to take over the same role). And Jenkins is looking more and more ready.

PLUS, Mendez and Gonzalez are also sitting and waiting for their opportunity as well.

Does moving Larnach and Bell automatically mean the Twins are giving up on 2026? I'd say NO when the forthcoming promotions are K-Pepper, Roden, and probably Jenkins with Rodriguez sometime mid August. 

Do the young players flash immediately? Maybe. Maybe not. But not only are they more interesting, and more fun to watch, they are part of the future. Additionally, what if they actually do well? While it didn't turn out in the long run the way we hoped, a collection of young players helped the 2023 Twins have a great 2nd half to reach the playoffs and win a series.

It's FUN to watch this mis-rostered 2026 team still fight and claw and change in front of us. And there have been a LOT of changes. (Not all good certainly due to injuries). But the reality is this was DESIGNED to be a transitional team. They were SUPPOSED to be a competitive team come the deadline...whatever that really means...but I've always believed that was around .500-ish. That would allow moves to ADD, or at least avoid another sell off. PLUS, it meant mid season was about the time various PROSPECTS were also about ready to debut. 

Well hell, it didn't turn out as expected. Lopez and Festa weren't supposed to be hurt. Lewis and Wallner weren't supposed to be unplayable. And here we are, changes making a difference defensively, a rotation of young arms and unknown arms still providing glue, and a bullpen that is BAD, but sometimes OK, and an offense that is a group effort. 

So here I AM, asking for part of that lineup to be moved on. The Twins not only aren't going to bring Bell back, but they just aren't going to pay Larnach around $6-7M to be a part time player with all of their prospects. 

Move Larnach and Bell. Get Roden and Jenkins up. Rodriguez in August. It's almost disgusting to say, but Gonzalez and Mendez might have to wait. You, as an organization, aren't punting on 2026, you're just allowing younger, more talented players to show what they can do, and getting ready for 2027 and beyond, and hopefully bringing back a couple decent prospects back.

Buxton, Keaschall, Clemens, Lee, Lewis, are still in place. K-Pepper settles at SS and might provide some solid offense as well. Kreidler is free to play anywhere. Roden could be an immediate replacement for Larnach in LF, even better defense, and a top of the order kind of bat. Even though Bell is a really good bat a playoff team would like to have, isn't there room for Buck to play there, or Clemens, or Lewis, or Keaschall, to allow time for Jenkins?

LOVE what the Twins are doing. But rebuilding on the fly just shouldn't stop!

**FINAL NOTE: Moving Ryan offers up a lot of opportunity to add additional PROSPECTS, NOT ML players. It would be for prospects, even very good prospects. ONLY my gut opinion, TP has had enough time to watch what he's in charge of. And he recognizes the already diluted fan base might be even WORSE with a Ryan trade. It would affect 2027, AND his continued rhetoric of competing in 2026. 

I actually he gives a crap about his family's perception, and the future value of the organization. 

So Ryan is NOT going to be traded unless there's an offer that Zole presents him that is just too good to turn down. It whipes away any initially credibility TP wanted to state. While no numbers were ever given, word is the Twins actually offered a decent contract for Valdez that Detroit won.

So why not an extension for Ryan that makes TP look really good? Even if it brings nothing but a QO offer after 2027?

Again, just my opinion. Ryan stays for now. The Twins move Jeffers, Larnach, and Bell and become light buyers. And Ryan stays and is offered a decent contact eventually.  And that's a different discussion for a different day. But he's going NOWWHERE for this season for PR if nothing else.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow, interesting and good take. I disagree on only 2 things. First, Keaschall is winning the long term job in RF. He's hitting again like last year or close and he's a real athlete. Second, I don't think they trade Bell or Larnach. I think both stay because the return will be too light for Bell to make any sense. Larnach might go if some like SD would offer a really good young reliever like Bradgley Rodriguez but more likely he stays because the available return will be all prospects at least a year out. Neither goes because we won't trade them unless we get someone who can help this year. 

Keaschall looking good in the OF and again at the plate creates a real opportunity. Now we have trade bait. We have 6 OFs in AAA that could garner some serious interest - Jenkins, Emma, GG, Roden, Mendez and Rosario. And that doesn't count Wallner or Fedko. Jenkins is off the table. I'd be hesitant to trade Emma, GG, or Mendez, but would consider the latter 3 in a trade for an established younger controllable starting pitcher and a solid reliver. Say Jose Soriano or Reid Detmers of the Angels or someone that good?  Or maybe for a just graduated top 50 starting prospect like Robbie Snelling of Miami? Maybe Roden or Rosario and throw in a Ben Ross to make it happen?

My point is that with Keaschall looking like he can be a long term OF fixture, we now have OFs to trade. You DO NOT trade any of them for 30 plus year old relief pitchers. You DO trade one or two of them for younger, controllable starting pitchers. We've all been thinking all of these guys at AAA are future All Stars. They aren't. At least half of them won't make it and are now at their peak value as prospects with a future. Let's cash that value in if there's an opportunity. 

16 hours ago, LyleCole said:

Yes, the Twins have made another amazing acquisition trading Cash Consideration.  We acquired We Suk Now, or something like that from Detroit. 

Looks like a good acquisition to me. 

26 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Thing about DH is that anyone can play there.  We have young guys knocking at the door and Bell provides limited immediate value and zero long-term value.

Roden at least presents some hope of long-term value.  We are flushing ABs down the drain on a guy is almost literally league average.

I don't know why people are eager to get rid of Bell for an A ball lottery ticket or its equivalent. He's hit .290/.350/.598 in the last 30 games with 8 HRs, 28 RBIS and only about a 22% strikeout rate. If we have a middle of the order bat, he's it. Now if we were to get a solid late inning reliever for him, that's a trade to make. The problem is that those kinds of returns are not available at the deadline. What's generally available are prospects at least a year or two away, many of whom don't turn out. 

I understand the issue of getting playing time for Alan Roden, Culpepper, and maybe Emma if he's ever healthy for longer than a week or two at a stretch. It's going to be hard to do if we don't trade anybody. Culpepper could come up and play 2B and SS with Clemens moving to a UTL role and Gray DFA'd but getting time for OFs is a puzzle, particularly LH hitting OFs who can't be Larnach's platoon mate. It will probably take a trade of Larnach or Bell to accomplish that. I'd rather trade Larnach but frankly don't think we'll trade either. I think Roden gets his chance after we trade Jeffers and go back to 2 catchers, thus leaving a spot open. Its going to take either that or an injury and somehow there's always injury related chances for guys.   

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

First - that great slash line he's put up has elevated him to a 103 OPS+ - meaning he needed this run just to get to league average.  He's a butcher in the field and his 2027 slash line with the Twins will look like this:  NA/NA/NA.  He's the definition of a guy you trade for a lottery ticket and be happy to do so.

Even if Roden comes up because we go back to two catchers there will still need to be a place for him to play.  With Larnach and Bell occupying so many at-bats at those positions I don't know how we call guys up and give real opportunities.

Can't agree with you. You're right that the recent hot streak got him to a 103 OPS+. His history is a slow start, then heats up and continues hot the rest of the way. He's likely to hit at least a 110 OPS+ by the end, 115 OPS+ for the later 81 games. He's probably gone next year but very helpful this year.  

I'm not against trading Bell, I'm against trading him for "a lottery ticket".  I would trade him for a solid AA or AAA guy with  solid regular upside. Not a future star, but a pitcher who is likely to be a solid reliver, a middle IF who is an above average glove and hits 7 at the MLB level, someone like that. If we can't get that, and maybe we can't, keep him. He may be worth more to the Twins than anyone else but his value to us is what matters. 

It will be tough to find at bats for Roden. It's tough when the starters at the positions you play are all hitting at the top of the lineup. Still, I think you can get him 15-20 ABs a week, including ABs against LH starters when Larnach sits and a day or two when Keaschall sits. Roden has neutral platoon splits. That's enough to find out what you have and chances are an injury gives you the chance to find out more. 

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Beccause the team isn't all that good, and some people are playing the long game?

I get the long game and if we can trade Bell for a prospect projectable to a solid MLB player at AA or higher, I'm in. I understood people here to be saying trade Bell for an A Ball Lottery ticket or trade Bell to open up ABs for Roden regardless of return. If the latter is the deal, I'm out. . 

45 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I guess part of the issue here is what we're defining as a lottery ticket.  But the point being Josh Bell will offer absolutely nothing of value to the Minnesota Twins or us as fans after sometime in early October.  Trading him at least opens the possibility for options that will.  People seem to forget we were having the same debate about whether to deal Nelson Cruz for some slappy named Joe Ryan.  A chance at something is better than guaranteed nothing.

And we have a particular part of our team that could use a whole lot of darts at "something" right now.

I agree that it's a definitional issue. Joe Ryan was no "slappy" when we got him. He was 15-8 with a 13.0 strikeouts per 9 and 2.67 ERA in his last MiLB season with the Rays, and he was on Team USA for the Tokyo Olympics. The issue with Ryan was that he was 25 and didn't have the big fastball velocity so scouts were worried his MiLB success wouldn't translate to the Show. I can't think of an equivalent guy but if we can a Joe Ryan type for Bell, do it. The problem is we can't.

One other thing. We don't have to punt on Bell in 2027. We can re-sign him; he won't be out of our price range if we're willing to pay $8-12M for a DH. He's making $7M this year.  That's a good price for a guy who is likely to finish 2026 around .255/,325/.450 plus with 20-25 HRs and 90-100 plus RBIs. i know people want him gone to give chances to others and his fielding can be charitably describes as awful. Still, will Roden, GG. Emma. Mendez, or Rosario. do better than that in 2027? Maybe but just as likely not. They are younger and might be better by 2028 or the same for longer, and they will be cheaper for awhile, but there's also just as good a chance that they will be worse or get injured. Jenkins I make room for, next year. He gets Martin's spot and may bump Keaschall or Larnach to the bench if Larnach isn't traded. The other 5? We can give them a chance but they have to earn a spot. No scholarships and no creating need by trading productive players just so they can get a chance.