Series Preview: Minnesota Twins v. Atlanta Braves

The Twins past three weeks have been stressful, with strikeouts, and injury to hitters and pitchers. The good news is that the Braves have also been on a Merry-go-Round of pitching, sending two starters and two relievers to the IL, and having a weak bullpen is something that the Twins offense can exploit. Despite pitching woes for both teams, they are both in first place in their divisions, and have series wins coming into this series. So prepare for a series of pitching duels and potentially low-scoring games.

While the Twins have teeter-tottered around the .500 mark, Atlanta's 50-27 record is best in the National League and second to only the Rays in MLB. They have one of the best offenses in baseball thanks to a loaded lineup of players locked up to long-term deals. Overall, their lineup has hit .271/.341/.484 (.825). They lead baseball in On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and OPS, and they're just one point behind Texas in batting average. Their 139 homers are 15 more than any other team in baseball. They are third in Runs behind the Rangers and Rays. They are 11th in Walks and have the eighth-fewest strikeouts. 

To contrast, the Twins are hitting .232/.310/.403 (.713). They rank 23rd in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, eighth in slugging percentage and 20th in OPS. Their 103 homers rank seventh in MLB. They rank 17th overall with 340 runs scored. They rank 12th in Walks with 264, and well, they strike out a ton! 

Ronald Acuna is one of the best players in baseball. He's hitting .328/.402/.561 (.963) with 23 doubles, 16 homers, and 47 RBI. He is also 35-for-41 in Stolen Base attempts. Catcher Sean Murphy also has an OPS over .900 (.919) with 14 doubles and 12 homers. 1B Matt Olson (.891 OPS), LF Eddie Rosario (.840), C Travis d'Arnaud (.839), SS Orlando Arcia (.832), 2B Ozzie Albies (.821), DH Marcell Ozuna (.817) have been good. In addition, 3B Austin Riley (.773) has been an All Star and MVP candidate the last couple of season. And the 2022 National League Rookie of the Year Mike Harris (.706) is hitting .350/.369/.588 (.957) in June with five doubles, a triple, and four home runs. His OPS is well over 1.000 over the past three weeks. 

In comparison, Royce Lewis (.863 in 22 games) and Ryan Jeffers (.824 in 46 games) are the only Twins with an OPS over .800 for the season. 

Weather Factor: It's hot and humid in Atlanta. Atlanta carries a lot of humidity, which means there could be a lot of high, flying balls, making for some potentially interesting at-bats.  

Pitching Probables
Game 1 – Monday, June 26th, 2023 – 7:20 pm CDT –  To start the series, the Twins send Sonny Gray (4-1, 2.56 ERA) to the mound. Gray started the season with a record-setting ERA, but in his past three outings, he hasn't worked into the sixth inning. Gray is by no means a liability, but he has recused himself from the game in his past two outings because he was "feeling off”. Nothing official has been told about his condition or if there is one. Gray and the defense must be aggressive to set the tone, get out in front of the count from the mound and get on the board first.

Stepping up against the Twins hitters is RHP Spencer Strider (8-2. 3.93 ERA). Strider doesn't go far into games; in his past five appearances, he has only gone into the sixth inning and thrown at least 97 pitches an appearance. Strider had a rough few starts in early June, but on June 20th, he bounced back in his outing against the Phillies striking out nine and earning the win.

The Twins will need good defensive positioning and their high-leverage bullpen options must be ready to give the offense the best opportunity for the win. 

Game 2 –Tuesday, June 27th, 2023 – 7:20 pm CDT -  Game 2 features Minnesota's "Ace" Joe Ryan (8-1 2.89 ERA). In his most recent outing against the Red Sox, which resulted in his first Complete Game Shutout, Ryan threw mainly two pitches, his four-seamer and his splitter. Ryan has been holding his opponents to an overall batting average of .136 since perfecting his splitter. Ryan is the Twins best pitching opportunity at beating the Braves and the potential to take the series.

The biggest problem the Twins will face in Game 2 is RHP Bryce Elder (5-1, 2.40 ERA), who has been on a tear lately. In his last game, he struck out six and threw seven scoreless innings. Elder plays with a chip on his shoulder and uses his sinker and slider more often than his fastball and change-up. His pitches barely reach 90 MPH but he has been able to get batters to swing and miss. His slider is his most dangerous pitch with a 32% WHIFF rate. 

The Twins lineup has struck out more than any other major league team (27.2%), and against Elder, it could be a problem. The Twins will have to start their lineup with some of their best hitters at the front, and throw in some bunting, which players like Michael A. Taylor are exceptional at. Playing small ball with a ton of singles and running up his pitch count to get to the bullpen early. 

Game 3 - Wednesday, June 28th, 2023 – 12:20 pm CDT - The final game of the series features Kenta Maeda (1-4, 6.86 ERA). Maeda looked like an old version of himself in his appearance against Detroit. In his return, Maeda struck out eight, allowed three hits and two walks, and was a beast on the mound with five scoreless innings. Maeda used the entire strike zone, a similar release point for all his pitches, and five different pitches to maintain control and get the win over the Tigers. Maeda last faced the Braves in 2016, striking out nine and recording a win. 

The Braves will send rookie AJ Smith-Shawver to the mound in the final game. Smith-Shawver, has pitched in three games since being called up at the beginning of June and registered his first win on June 15th. He favors his fastball but gets hitters to chase his change-up the most (50%). Smith-Shawver struggles against left-handed batters much more than right-handed, which could be an advantage for the Twins lineup. 

If the Twins lineup is left-handed heavy, it could be a chance to dominate the rookie and allow players like Gallo and Julien to potentially manufacture hits. Gallo and Julien, both power-hitters, have been struggling as of late, much like the rest of the line-up, but these two, as well as Max Kepler, seem to make things happen against pitchers who struggle with lefties. 

Prediction Time!
This series really could be anyone's to win. Both teams were at the top of their division, but one division was "heavier" in difficulty than the other. Both face pitching rotation woes and injury but also have strong hitters in their lineup. The Twins typically play up or down to who they play, so how do you think this series will go? Can the Twins stay about .500? Can the line-up be changed to dominate the Braves? Leave your thoughts in the comments.