Twins Minor League Report (4/13): A Surprise Promotion and Olivar Goes Off

Great start by Kyle Jones and another good one by Festa. The Wichita bullpen sure makes the starters #'s look bad as the last two nights they allow all of the runners they inherit to score. And I like Hunter McMahon but he was terrible.

Balazovic pitches in relief again. Wonder if he's just building up after the broken jaw or if that is where he is going to be this year. At least he did okay this time.

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

I never understand why IRS is usually not mentioned. To me, it is the most important stat in a relief pitchers line, and screws the pitcher replaced because they very well could have saved themselves and the team, instead of the manager making the decision to not let them and provide the opposite of relief.

I think ERA would be improved if inherited runners scored were divided between the pitcher leaving the game and the reliever.

If a runner on first scores:

Starter gets 0.25R, reliever gets 0.75R

If a runner on second scores,

Starter gets 0.5R, reliever gets 0.5R

If a runner on third scores,

Starter gets 0.75R, reliever gets 0.25R.

This doesn’t factor in the number of outs, of course.  But it’s better than the current system.

That way if you leave the game with the bases loaded, you’re only on the hook for a max of 1.5 more runs, not 3 (which is brutal—you could pitch 8.2 shutout innings, leave with the bases loaded, and Ron Davis could give up a homer and cost you 3ER.)

Thanks, Ted. Besides being totally blessed last night by Twins humiliating the Yanks in their own backyard. But also my man Richardo Olivar, having a great day. Olivar is the catching prospect you've never heard of. That tore up FSL last season. Olivar needs help with his catching so I'm very happy that he's primarily being used there this season. I was concerned about his hitting, being promoted to heavy pitching Ft. Myers A ball and having heavier duties catching. But this break out has made me very happy.

8 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Great start by Kyle Jones and another good one by Festa. The Wichita bullpen sure makes the starters #'s look bad as the last two nights they allow all of the runners they inherit to score. And I like Hunter McMahon but he was terrible.

Balazovic pitches in relief again. Wonder if he's just building up after the broken jaw or if that is where he is going to be this year. At least he did okay this time.

I'm wondering about Balazovic's role now too. If he's comfortable in the pen, that's not a bad thing, but I hadn't heard anything previously about converting him to a reliever. 

Balazovic had 47 pitches last night and only 22 strikes.  The lack of command was a problem last year too.  Kinda weird because the walk rate was not bad earlier in his career.  Could be less disciplined hitters at lower levels allowed him to get a way with it.

Olivar made an impression last year and ended up on MLB's top 30 (at 27) Twins prospects.  He had an OPS over 1.  I have him on my watch list.  We need a catcher to emerge and he is looking pretty good.

2 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

I think ERA would be improved if inherited runners scored were divided between the pitcher leaving the game and the reliever.

If a runner on first scores:

Starter gets 0.25R, reliever gets 0.75R

If a runner on second scores,

Starter gets 0.5R, reliever gets 0.5R

If a runner on third scores,

Starter gets 0.75R, reliever gets 0.25R.

This doesn’t factor in the number of outs, of course.  But it’s better than the current system.

Hmmmm......interesting idea!

Olivar is a very intriguing guy.  Has the athleticism to play both catcher and centerfield; you don't see that combo very often.  We should probably note his 3 stolen bases yesterday in addition to his hitting line.  Incredible game from as a catcher.

I'm not sure if he'll continue playing center much going forward, but he raked in rookie ball last year, so if he gets going in Fort Myers now he should move up the boards.

3 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

I think ERA would be improved if inherited runners scored were divided between the pitcher leaving the game and the reliever.

If a runner on first scores:

Starter gets 0.25R, reliever gets 0.75R

If a runner on second scores,

Starter gets 0.5R, reliever gets 0.5R

If a runner on third scores,

Starter gets 0.75R, reliever gets 0.25R.

This doesn’t factor in the number of outs, of course.  But it’s better than the current system.

I have been saying something like this for years.  I have had it based on outs as well.  If 2 outs, any runs allowed go to the relief guy, his job is to get the first guy out.  If 1 out, than any runner on 3rd goes to guy that left, but anyone on 2nd or 1st got the relief guy.  If 0 out then any runner on 3rd or 2nd go to guy leaving, and any runner on 1st goes to relief guy.  This is based on that relief guy could do their job and get all 3 guys out, but still allow a runner to score through sac flies or ground outs.  I have seen relief appearance were a guy comes in 2 outs bases loaded.  Give up 2 or 3 singles allowing all runners to score, then get his 1 out, and has a "scoreless" appearance but failed their job. 

An obscure observation: In AA, Steven Cruz closed out the game for Arkansas. He, along with Evan Sisk, were sent to KC in exchange for Michael A. Taylor in that lopsided trade favoring KC.

Kidding.

Saw that Miller was back at short last night.  Great seeing him getting hits in most of his games.

So happy to see Varland get the call to be in New York tonight.  Was hoping that Winder is far enough back to be the replacement for Sands, but unlikely.  Great seeing AK go yard.  Will he and Polo be promoted to St. Paul come Monday?

3 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

That way if you leave the game with the bases loaded, you’re only on the hook for a max of 1.5 more runs, not 3 (which is brutal—you could pitch 8.2 shutout innings, leave with the bases loaded, and Ron Davis could give up a homer and cost you 3ER.)

I appreciate the sentiment (and I'm sure my son would appreciate it somewhat not getting charged extra runs ) but I still find my self at the thought of something like this actually being implemented...

Alex Isola is off to a nice start at AA. Be interesting to see where the Twins have him as a catcher by the end of the season, because if he can hit consistently and be solid behind the plate I'd feel a lot better about our short-term catching depth.

1 minute ago, jmlease1 said:

Alex Isola is off to a nice start at AA. Be interesting to see where the Twins have him as a catcher by the end of the season, because if he can hit consistently and be solid behind the plate I'd feel a lot better about our short-term catching depth.

He is not solid behind the plate at this point in his career unfortunately.  He has around a 10% caught-stealing percentage in his minors career.  He might be better at framing/blocking but I haven't heard anything to suggest he really excels in those areas.

Jair Camargo is probably the young guy who could provide catching depth this season with a good arm and solid receiving skills.  He's struggled with contact and plate discipline, but can run into a few and send them a long way.

What is the corresponding move to Varland coming up?

2 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

I appreciate the sentiment (and I'm sure my son would appreciate it somewhat not getting charged extra runs ) but I still find my self at the thought of something like this actually being implemented...

BTW, how's your son doing, in college ball?

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

BTW, how's your son doing, in college ball?

Outside of a nightmare, crooked number inning earlier this spring (other team went all Houston Astros 🤬), he's done fairly well for a freshman.  Second on the team in appearances.  He would be leading that category, but his shoulder has been a little sore recently, so he hasn't pitched in a week or so.

Unfortunately, when you're a reliever one bad inning can bloat that ERA 🤷‍♂️. 

Edit: Funny side note.  One of his current teammates, was a teammate of 2022 1st Round Draft pick Dylan Lesko at Buford HS.

16 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Outside of a nightmare, crooked number inning earlier this spring (other team went all Houston Astros 🤬), he's done fairly well for a freshman.  Second on the team in appearances.  He would be leading that category, but his shoulder has been a little sore recently, so he hasn't pitched in a week or so.

Unfortunately, when you're a reliever one bad inning can bloat that ERA 🤷‍♂️. 

Edit: Funny side note.  One of his current teammates, was a teammate of 2022 1st Round Draft pick Dylan Lesko at Buford HS.

Yeah, freshman year is tough, getting situated. But once settled in, he'll blossum. Next year he'll have a great record. Do you think he'll start next year?

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yeah, freshman year is tough, getting situated. But once settled in, he'll blossum. Next year he'll have a great record. Do you think he'll start next year?

Hard to say.  He's (only ) throwing mid 80's right now (although just thinking about even that velo makes my shoulder hurt).  A lot will depend on how much he progresses through the end of the season and his offseason regime.

He's heading down to a place in Florida for a velocity and conditioning program (think someplace like the Baseball Ranch in Texas) this coming summer.  Coach wanted him to sit closer to 90 before committing to a starting role, so we shall see.

9 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Hard to say.  He's (only ) throwing mid 80's right now (although just thinking about even that velo makes my shoulder hurt).  A lot will depend on how much he progresses through the end of the season and his offseason regime.

He's heading down to a place in Florida for a velocity and conditioning program (think someplace like the Baseball Ranch in Texas) this coming summer.  Coach wanted him to sit closer to 90 before committing to a starting role, so we shall see.

I was thinking the same about his arm hurting, that he'd have to get his arm stronger. Plus cleaning up his mechanics will do wonders. 90 is pretty good for small college but who knows what can happen, plus picking up how to pitch to college players. It's a never ending process.

2 hours ago, Cornholio said:

What is the corresponding move to Varland coming up?

https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/transactions

4 hours ago, bird said:

An obscure observation: In AA, Steven Cruz closed out the game for Arkansas. He, along with Evan Sisk, were sent to KC in exchange for Michael A. Taylor in that lopsided trade favoring KC.

Kidding.

Both will be eitgehr free agents or Rule 5 eligible if not protected next seasoin., Of course, Taylor will also be a free agent. Both teams trading players they didn't see not only in short term, but also long-term plans. Up to the players to make a case for themselves, now.

2 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/transactions

Thank you. I had assumed this would be the choice barring an injury to another pitcher.

I'd have to guess that Balazovic, at least for now, remains a starter? And they're just stretching him out as he didn't get a full spring training? Maybe someone on TD staff can corroborate? But then again, I guess they could accomplish that by having him start the games instead of being the 2nd guy in? I hope they aren't moving him yet.

Had command issues. But last year it seemed, almost without exception, that the pitches in the strike-zone were getting destroyed. It's very very early, but pitches in the strike-zone were not getting destroyed...and in several instances, were swings-and-misses. The hit was a ground ball single.

Baby steps, and fingers crossed.

10 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

I think ERA would be improved if inherited runners scored were divided between the pitcher leaving the game and the reliever.

If a runner on first scores:

Starter gets 0.25R, reliever gets 0.75R

If a runner on second scores,

Starter gets 0.5R, reliever gets 0.5R

If a runner on third scores,

Starter gets 0.75R, reliever gets 0.25R.

This doesn’t factor in the number of outs, of course.  But it’s better than the current system.

It's a an interesting idea, and I've thought similar in the past. But more than anything I think it points to the fact that ERA is a largely useless stat to begin with. There are many, many thing that contribute to the "why" of an opposing team scoring a run. The pitcher that allowed the runner on base; the defense; the pitcher that allowed them home; and (often as much as anything) luck. 

ERA does almost nothing to isolate the individual pitcher's contribution to that "why." One of the shortcoming could be partially solved with your solution above... but there are so many others that I'm not sure it really matters.

(And as a specific complication, what about runs that more than two pitchers contribute to? First pitchers walks the batter; second pitcher throws two passed balls, getting runner to third; then gets two outs; third pitcher comes in & gives up a single?)

1 hour ago, Possumlad said:

the fact that ERA is a largely useless stat to begin with

Obviously, ERA is very flawed.  But it’s not going away.  And it’s still used more than any other stat.  Just trying to improve it.