Twins Daily 2018 Awards: Most Improved

I'm on board with this choice. We all like to see when someone gets knocked down and picks themselves up. Gibson has been knocked down a few times I'd say. The higher FB velocity would be because he went to the 4 seamer more and less of the sinker.

Gibson had a solid 2018 after a strong ending to last season. Let's hope Garver and Rogers do the same in 2019. Both were really good after the break this year.

Here's a look at the ballots from each of our seven voters. Opinions varied greatly on this one. There were five different choices for No. 1, and no player appeared on every list.

Seth Stohs: 1) Kyle Gibson
Nick Nelson: 1) Kyle Gibson
John Bonnes: 1) Kyle Gibson
Tom Froemming: 1) Kyle Gibson
Cody Christie: 1) Kyle Gibson
Steve Lien: 1) Kyle Gibson
Ted Schwerzler: 1) Kyle Gibson

Was the lead-in to the list for another story?  :-)

I agree with this one as well. And after many months of referring to Kyle Gibson as "The Tease"...I'm retiring the label. His consistency this season was much improved. His peripherals were better. He looked a lot more like the guy we saw in 2015 than the frustrating one from the last 2 years, but it looks like he achieved it through a change in approach rather than just hoping for the best and running out the same old plan.

I don't expect Kyle Gibson to be an elite pitcher. But I think he can be a stalwart in the rotation who keeps you in games, chews up innings, and has a good plan out there every start. that's really valuable. He's probably going to hover in that 2-4 bWAR range the next 3-4 seasons, and I'd be very comfortable extending him at this point. (If he has a season where the BB/9 drop to the 2-2.5 range for a season and everything else stays to the good, he'll probably be an all-star, but based on his consistent track record of being a 3-3.5 BB/9 guy it's important to realize that would be an outlier and not something to expect)

Something I found notable about this year: Gibson had 15 starts with a Game Score of 60 or above, but only 7 with a Game Score of 40 or less. Contrast that to 2017, where he was at only 3 at 60 or above and 8 at 40 or less. This year his worst Game Score was a 29; last year he had three games at 28, 17, and 15. 2018 he had 5 Game Scores of 70 or higher. 2017 he had 1. The ceiling was higher, the floor was higher and the overall performance was simply better and we got to have more of it.

really happy for him, and glad he found an approach that works for him consistently.

I agree with this one as well. And after many months of referring to Kyle Gibson as "The Tease"...I'm retiring the label. His consistency this season was much improved. His peripherals were better. He looked a lot more like the guy we saw in 2015 than the frustrating one from the last 2 years, but it looks like he achieved it through a change in approach rather than just hoping for the best and running out the same old plan.

 

I don't expect Kyle Gibson to be an elite pitcher. But I think he can be a stalwart in the rotation who keeps you in games, chews up innings, and has a good plan out there every start. that's really valuable. He's probably going to hover in that 2-4 bWAR range the next 3-4 seasons, and I'd be very comfortable extending him at this point. (If he has a season where the BB/9 drop to the 2-2.5 range for a season and everything else stays to the good, he'll probably be an all-star, but based on his consistent track record of being a 3-3.5 BB/9 guy it's important to realize that would be an outlier and not something to expect)

 

Something I found notable about this year: Gibson had 15 starts with a Game Score of 60 or above, but only 7 with a Game Score of 40 or less. Contrast that to 2017, where he was at only 3 at 60 or above and 8 at 40 or less. This year his worst Game Score was a 29; last year he had three games at 28, 17, and 15. 2018 he had 5 Game Scores of 70 or higher. 2017 he had 1. The ceiling was higher, the floor was higher and the overall performance was simply better and we got to have more of it.

 

really happy for him, and glad he found an approach that works for him consistently.

His FIP dropped 72 points (4.13), his BABIP dropped 43 points (to a career best BABIP), and he had a career best LOB%.  His K/9 went up, his BB/9 also went up, and he averaged almost 6 innings a start this year (almost hitting 200).  He definitely improved, but I'm skeptical this continues in his career, mostly due to the BABIP, LOB%, and his history.

His FIP dropped 72 points (4.13), his BABIP dropped 43 points (to a career best BABIP), and he had a career best LOB%.  His K/9 went up, his BB/9 also went up, and he averaged almost 6 innings a start this year (almost hitting 200).  He definitely improved, but I'm skeptical this continues in his career, mostly due to the BABIP, LOB%, and his history.

His FIP dropping simply means he pitched better, but it's not like it's an out of character number for him; he posted better numbers in both 2014 & 2015. I'm slightly more concerned about the differential between his ERA and his FIP, which suggests he was actually a little lucky at times.

The BABIP is certain a reason why he improved this year, but despite the big drop it's not like this is an out of character number for him: he had very similar number in 2014 & 2015. I'm much more concerned about a drop in BABIP (or a spike for hitters) when it's an outlier.

The innings is another one where he's done this before: 194.2 in 2015.

I'm hopeful this is an indicator of long term success in part because he was operating with a different pitch mix and approach, and showed much greater consistency than the last two years.

I look at the last three winners and think if I am on the Twins, I would not want this award.

I would have gone with Escobar or Rosario. It always felt like Gibson was on the cusp over the past three years.

His FIP dropping simply means he pitched better, but it's not like it's an out of character number for him; he posted better numbers in both 2014 & 2015. I'm slightly more concerned about the differential between his ERA and his FIP, which suggests he was actually a little lucky at times.

 

The BABIP is certain a reason why he improved this year, but despite the big drop it's not like this is an out of character number for him: he had very similar number in 2014 & 2015. I'm much more concerned about a drop in BABIP (or a spike for hitters) when it's an outlier.

 

The innings is another one where he's done this before: 194.2 in 2015.

 

I'm hopeful this is an indicator of long term success in part because he was operating with a different pitch mix and approach, and showed much greater consistency than the last two years.

I think if you re-read what I wrote, I didn't say his drop in FIP, or it being out of character, was a reason I was skeptical of his ability to repeat his 2018 going forward). Obviously his FIP drop means he pitched better.

Overall, I am also hopeful it's an indicator of long term success, but l have the same belief I had after his 2015 season, trade him now if you can get some value, before he comes back down.

Who will start the opening game in 2019? I vote for Gibson.

Hopefully Berrios since he is currently our best starter.

I would have gone with Escobar or Rosario. It always felt like Gibson was on the cusp over the past three years.

Curious as to why you would have Rosario on this list (noticed Cody did as well)?  He regressed pretty hard over the last month or two and I believe Gleeman had some stats that his swinging at pitches out of the strike zone went from low 30% to well over 50% during that time.  All this before he got hurt.

I would say he he established himself as a key member of this Twins team moving forward (showing that last year was not a fluke), but not a top candidate to be most improved?

On Gibson, I’m not a stat maven, but wouldn’t guys who induce a lot of double plays always have a higher FIP?

 

While luck enters into strand stats, I think the mental part of the game matters more and I think Gibson has become a smarter pitcher.

Seems to be a bit of a dubious distinction.

Hicks and Dozier were both out of the organization within 2 years of winning the award.

Good for Kyle. I never thought it would happen!  He is become a leader of the team.