Twins Video
Following a nervous win to end a five-game slide on Saturday, the Twins turned to their most nervous pitcher, Louie Varland, in Sunday's rubber match. He was out of sorts from the outset, and the Twins offense didn't have anywhere near the firepower to back him up.
Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland: 2 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K (74 Pitches, 35 Strikes, 47.3%)
Home Runs: Austin Martin (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Varland (-.245), Martin (-.116), Kyle Farmer (-.087)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
Varland started to game off by walking the first two hitters he faced. This was undoubtedly a reaction to his performances thus far in 2024, in which he has left far too many pitches in the zone in pitcher's counts. You can overcorrect in this game, and Varland may have found the approach he employed against the Orioles and Dodgers may have worked just fine against the far more mortal (outside of Kerry Carpenter) Tigers lineup.
If you dabble in writing Louie Varland hate-fiction, you could script the rest of his outing. Spencer Torkelson smashed a grounder to Willi Castro that the shortstop bungled just a bit, barely getting the out at second thanks to a good stretch by Edouard Julien. Carpenter got jammed, but hot hitters will hit, and he dumped a single down the right field line to score the first run. Matt Vierling then walked, Buddy Kennedy hit a sacrifice fly, and then Varland fell behind Parker Meadows 3-1. His fifth pitch was a ball, but Meadows swung through it and then took strike three looking, ending a 39-pitch first inning.
Opposing the Twins was former number one overall pick, Casey Mize. Mize missed most of the 2022 season and the entire 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His stuff doesn't appear to be all the way back, but he did hit 97 MPH and got better as the outing went along.
The Twins did take some good at-bats in their half of the first, loading the bases with a Trevor Larnach walk, Byron Buxton single and a walk to Alex Kirilloff. Austin Martin lined out softly, and Willi Castro flied out to let Mize off the hook.
Varland somehow walked Javier Baez leading off the second inning but managed his way out of it by getting a charitable strike two call on Jake Rogers (who struck out later in the at-bat), and then coaxing a long fly out from Riley Greene.
The third inning started with a single from Torkelson and a hit-by-pitch from Carpenter. After a fortuitous double play off the bat of Vierling, Buddy Kennedy launched a Varland cutter 104 MPH into the seats in left-field, ending Varland's day.
He certainly has the velocity and movement profile to succeed as a starter, but Varland is no nibbler, and trying to tickle the edges of the zone with four to five pitches seems a recipe doomed to fail. He would be better served finding a middle ground between today and his first three starts of the year. It remains to be seen if Varland gets that chance next turn through the rotation, as he has never looked worse than today and Simeon Woods-Richardson definitely has more helium down at Triple-A.
Meanwhile, Mize looked hardly dominant, inducing only two whiffs the first time through the lineup, both on fastballs. Yet again, however, the Twins struggled to capitalize on the opportunities that presented themselves. By the fifth inning, Mize started relying on his splitter, striking out Julien and Larnach after Christian Vazquez led off with a single.
The Twins' bullpen was a bright spot once again, with Cole Sands and Matt Bowman providing scoreless relief through the sixth and (theoretically) keeping the Twins in the game if their offense could break through.
They couldn't and Jay Jackson entered in the seventh and nearly served up a two-run home run to Torkelson (it ended up as run-scoring a double) before recovering and working a scoreless eighth inning.
Noted Twin killer Tyler Holton shut down the Twins in the seventh and eighth innings. The lefty worked quickly and gave the Twins nothing to hit, improving his career line against the Twins to 15 1/3 innings, allowing one earned run with 18 strikeouts.
The Twins tried to make things interesting in the ninth, down 6-0. Martin launched his first big league home run, Castro got a squib double and Santana walked.
The Good:
- Sands and Bowman both look confident, and are slinging some top-tier breaking stuff at opponents with decent command.
- Buxton looks less overmatched, rifling a single through the left side and putting the ball in play his other three at-bats.
- Martin kept his hitting streak alive in the ninth with the first home run of his career off Tigers reliever Alex Faedo.
The Bad:
- Kyle Farmer continues to struggle in his at-bats, leaving several men on base in today's game.
- Varland didn't have many positives from his outing.
- Jackson and Caleb Thielbar continue to struggle, and remain the only bullpen arms that are not pitching quite well at the moment.
What’s Next: Chris Paddack (0-1, 8.36 ERA) faces off against Jonathan Cannon (0-0, 1.80 ERA) as the Twins open a three game series against the White Sox at Target Field. The White Sox were supposed to be bad this year, and they are worse than that, so if the Twins hope to get off the mat at some point this season, there is no better time.
Postgame Interviews:
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Bowman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 33 |
| Jackson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 |
| Stewart | 17 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
| Jax | 10 | 0 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 43 |
| Thielbar | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 22 | 39 |
| Okert | 18 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 35 |
| Funderburk | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 24 |
| Sands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 33 |
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