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In a season like this, where contention felt so viably within reach, it's easy to look back and play the "what if" game. The Twins have essentially fallen out of the postseason race by going 20-26 since the All-Star break, but they've been on the fringe of the playoff mix all year, and as recently as August 20th their postseason odds were in the 40% range.
You wonder how differently things might have gone with a few different variables in place — some in the team's control, some not.
What if Pablo López didn't go down with a season-ending injury on the first day of spring training? What if high-octane arms like Mick Abel or David Festa were healthy enough to contribute at all? What if the Twins didn't trade Louis Varland at the deadline last year, and were anchoring their shaky bullpen with the best reliever in the league? What if they made any kind of serious investment in the roster last offseason, rather than waffling over ownership uncertainty?
What if, what if. It does little good to lament over it now. What I will say is that, given the in-season circumstances and cards currently in their hand, the Twins are giving it their all. It's proving to not be enough. But I will say that I appreciate it, and it gives me a sense of optimism for what lies ahead.
Look around and you can see the signs of a team, manager and front office that are trying their best to push all chips into the middle of the table. It started, of course, with the trade deadline, which was one of Minnesota's most aggressive in memory. They traded away a bundle of prospects, including one of their best young arms, for immediate pitching help.
Has it paid off? Not really, the Twins are 23rd in relief pitching ERA since the deadline. But the effort matters.
Then you turn your attention to roster moves and player usage decisions. A few things stick out to me:
- Impact prospects joining the fight. Some people might argue that it took too long for Kaelen Culpepper and especially Waker Jenkins to get the call. Well, Minnesota's best two MLB-ready prospects have arrived and they are playing every day — including Jenkins who is the youngest player to don a Twins uniform since a rookie Byron Buxton in 2015. Whatever concerns the front office harbored about starting service clocks or losing development time to a lockout were cast aside in the name of urgency.
- Speaking of Buxton, he has repeatedly pushed himself to play through a hip injury that is clearly rather serious. Even now, as he acknowledges that offseason surgery is in the cards, Buxton is attempting to get back on the field. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan is set to return to the mound today in Detroit, and while I wouldn't say he was necessarily rushed, it's clear he was making haste to come back, logging only one three-inning rehab outing. He should be able to get in four more starts, knowing each one counts.
- Ryan Jeffers, despite missing almost two months with a fractured hamate, leads all Twins in fWAR. He has been their best player and Derek Shelton is leaning on him hard here in the home stretch. Sunday's game marked Jeffers' seventh consecutive start behind the plate. Previously he had never started more than three in a row all year.
All of these things point to a team going all-out to try and make hay with a clear opportunity in what was a wide-open American League. Unfortunately, it just hasn't been enough. Culpepper's been good but Jenkins has struggled initially, which is unsurprising for a 21-year-old getting his first taste of the majors. Buxton and Ryan, for all their efforts to overcome injuries, have nonetheless been absent and/or ineffective in the second half. And while Jeffers has delivered abundantly in his sudden full-time role, ripping four homers and driving in 11 over seven games, the Twins have remained stuck in neutral.
The result has been the same as the last two years: a postseason pursuit that seemed plausible at midseason turning into a pipe dream by September following a second-half collapse. But what struck me as most frustrating about 2024 and 2025 is how the team seemed to simply give up.
Trevor Richards was a laughable sole addition at the deadline two years ago for a team that appeared playoff-bound. Last year's decision to sell was understandable, but the historic firesale was a white flag of epic proportions. In both instances, the team was sending strong signals of apathy, which bled over into stagnant offseasons, and it left the fanbase feeling sour.
I'm getting no signals of apathy this year. Will it translate to bolder team-building moves this offseason and a better outcome in 2027? Nothing is guaranteed, but I've seen enough to feel more confident in Twins leadership moving forward than I have in some time.
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