The Connor Prielipp Conundrum: Minnesota Twins Unveil the 2025 Plan For Electric Lefty

28 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

...I'd like to see them come up with a multi-year plan... Have him make 10-12 starts (about half the season), throwing 50-60 pitches... 

Perhaps the best session at last year's SABR convention in the Twin Cities talked exactly about that. I forget which exec it was (maybe Falvey?) that talked about how (as I recall), they typically let the first year (or partial year) play out in a pattern the pitcher was used to in college (or high school).*

That time is about getting to know the player and being able to do better analysis than is possible in draft prep. After that, they indeed develop an individualized development plan that matches their best understanding of the pitcher's potential and his ability to handle increased workload, etc. 

I gathered that the kind of progression you described is very much in tune with that. Obviously you are continually evaluating and modifying along the way as you gather more information and as things play out, but the concept is this. 

I wish I'd taken notes and written about it, because it was pretty enlightening. One thing that came through loud and clear is that there's not a single development pattern, so what they do with Raya may or may not look like what they do with Prielipp, which may or may not look like what they do with... 

It definitely refuted the "The Twins always do it this way" mentality that shows up a lot on TD. There's much more nuance at play than we are ever privy to. 

At risk of going on a tangent, the other thing I was struck by was Falvey's describing the amount of communication that goes on between him, Rocco and others. Multiple meetings a day. To use one example, they talk about lineup construction every day. Falvey and others will give their input, but ultimately it's Rocco's call, as are in-game decisions. Similarly, Rocco and others are going to give their input into roster construction daily, but ultimately those are Falvey's calls.

There were other examples as well, but the idea that often comes through on TD that there are silos, with Falvey creating a roster and then shipping it off to Rocco for implementation, is not the case. Again, much more nuance.

*Sometime I plan to go for a world record in the number of parenthetical phrases in a single sentence.

48 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I think Canterino is a poor example insofar as this discussion is concerned.  His arm was destroyed at Rice University.  If memory serves, he did get a fantastic education from a wonderful University.  Expect he will be putting that to use in the future.

As for this discussion, the only thing the Twins/Canterino could have done differently that might have worked would have been a shoulder/arm transplant.  Unfortunately, the track record of those being successful isn't good.  [Note: I am writing this last comment with a smile, but what was done to him in college is damn near criminal.]

Canterino pitched a normal amount at Rice. He never even hit 100 innings for them. It's not Rice's fault. The Twins didn't have a problem tacking on 20 innings after Canterino's final season at Rice, either. The facts are Canterino had a violent, unorthodox delivery and his body didn't hold up as he aged into his 20s.

Canterino was ranked 85th in innings pitched in college baseball in his final year at Rice. Behind several guys who were drafted and didn't run into the injury issues Canterino did. This Rice conspiracy theory stuff has gotten old.

Reid Detmers at age 19 threw 113 innings vs the 99 innings a 21 year old Canterino did in 2019. Detmers also thrice threw as many or more pitches per game that season at 119, 118, and 116 compared to Canterino's max of 116, and Detmer's 4th highest count of 114 matched Canterino's only other game above 109.

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That was kind of my point on Raya. He's not expected to be close to that this year, but people are saying he hayd to be to be a MLB pitcher.....

I'd expect Raya will be at 125+ innings this year if he's good enough to start, that is. He went 97.2 innings last year and was averaging 5 innings per start over his final 9 games last year. Raya was highly efficient as well, going 5.0 innings in an average of about 70 pitches.

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Nuance is lost here when it comes to pitching. When a Twins pitcher has thrown over 80 pitches by the end of the fourth, they don’t start the fifth. At around 85, they don’t start the sixth.  The upper limit on pitches seems to be 100. Paddack seems limited to 80 so far. The bullpen might have a pattern of rest depending on how many pitches thrown over a given period of time for the higher leverage relievers. That would require actual work to follow that usage.

College now has very specific rules on number of pitches and days of rest. It is not unreasonable to think the Twins do not have the same. 

I think they have general principles, though they’ll tweak them in certain contexts. Without digging in, I think your numbers are in the neighborhood.

In the case of 80 pitches over four innings, that makes some sense in that by definition, at least one of the innings has been 20 pitches. And if he’s having the kind of night where he’s averaging 20 pitches per inning, another inning at that level gets him over 100, which they do tend to avoid. Another of their principles seems to be that they don’t tend to let a guy start an inning if they don’t think he can get through it. It would be interesting to know the numbers, but it seems like they have a lower than average number of mid-inning changes. 

And about 85 pitches through five seems about how they view that one. Again, even a more typical 15-pitch inning gets the guy to 100. 

But last night was a context where they did go against that. Not sure how they count the time clock violation, but it looks like SWR was at either 93 or 94 pitches through five. 

Similarly, I agree there are general principles for the relievers. I named the rarity of coming out a second inning, even if the previous was only a partial or very low-pitch. They’re generally averse to back-to-back days and very rarely even consider three straight. If a guy gets more than about 20 innings it’s almost a certainty he won’t go the next day. It’s not at all unusual that Rocco names a reliever as having been “unavailable” in postgame interviews. 

Often in game threads or postgame reviews, when someone questions why a given reliever wasn’t used or wasn’t used more, it can be explained by looking at the previous day’s pitch chart. 

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

...College now has very specific rules on number of pitches and days of rest. It is not unreasonable to think the Twins do not have the same. 

Yeah. 110 pitches max when starting a new batter, but if a new batter starts at 109 pitches, the pitcher can continue to pitch for as many pitches needed to retire the batter. Last year, John Luke Glanton managed 119.2 innings of college ball pitching including a 122 pitch performance against North Greenville on 5/16/24. The very specific rule here says Glanton is required to get at least a whopping 3 calendar days rest. 

Under 25 pitches? No rest required. Guy could literally throw 25 pitches in relief in game 1 of a double header, come back and throw 109 pitches before facing the last batter who gets to 3-2 and then fouls off 9 pitches before finally striking out with 149+ pitches thrown that day.

But then the college would have to give him the next 3 whole calendar days off!! They're stringent rules!

3 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I know we discuss innings to be thrown so much, but isn't it really about his pitch count? If he starts at 50 pitches max, he's going to be potentially good for 3 or 4 innings if he's efficient. Then 4-5 innings are within reach at 60 pitches, etc. A gradual buildup on his pitch count over the first few months...throwing once a week...should be a viable plan IMO. 

Not unreasonable he could be at AAA first of July. At that point his total innings can be re-evaluated. If the numbers look good and he's looking strong, he can make additional starts, and then he can be backed off and maybe piggyback or start throwing twice a week out of the pen, with the idea he might help the Twins come August/September in the pen. 

It's all about keeping him healthy, of course. But I think throwing once a week on a gradual pitch increase is the smart way to go. 

While he's missed time in his pro career so far, he's still barely 24yo. I don't think you give up on an arm like his for the rotation at this point. 

Yes, I think it’s much more about pitch count. I made reference to Raya’s usage above. Go back and look at his game logs and you’ll see some very clear trends.  Every five or so games, they would bump up the trend line five or 10 pitches.

If I’m remembering correctly, it even seemed like there were times they would make mid-inning pitching changes when they hit a certain mark.

It reminded me of Little League days for my son, where there was a rule that you couldn’t start a new hitter if they were past 75 pitches. If the kid hit pitches, he would be allowed to finish that hitter. (So if the other team had a good pitcher who was at 73 pitches, the next batter had a guaranteed take sign so that the second pitch would be No. 75 and force the substitution. 

17 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Absolutely not. Raya was taken easy & wasn't injured which contributed to him getting more innings than if he was overextended & was blown out early as Canterino was. If Canterino was taken much easier, he wouldn't have blown out so early & pitched many more innings than he did. Why can't people see the logic in that?

What in the world is "overextended" about averaging three inninds per game?  And being injured isn't overusing.  It's bad luck.