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Carlos Santana has had a very nice season. The 38-year-old has defied traditional aging curves, riding his extraordinary understanding of the strike zone and vicious pull power to his best wRC+ in five years. He’s one of two batters on the Twins with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title; he leads the team in homers; he leads the team in walks; he’s fourth among their hitters in fWAR. Hell, Santana has even stolen four bases without being caught. He's been a blessing for a squad decimated by injuries and stuck in a bog of mediocre hitters overwhelmed by extended roles.
Plus—and this is the part none of us expected, to quite this extent—he’s provided tremendous defense at first base, probably good enough to nab the team’s first Gold Glove since Byron Buxton and Brian Dozier won in 2017.
So, as the season winds down and the winter looms, let’s consider whether the team should bring Santana back for another go-around.
Who are the other 1st base options in free agency?
First base is set to be big on name-brand talent, and perhaps a bit light on actual production. A list can be found here, but I’ll dole out the skinny: the main attractions are Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Josh Bell, and Christian Walker. (I’m betting on the Yankees picking up Anthony Rizzo’s $17 million option, but given his age and recent injury record, he wouldn't rank with the others listed here anyway.)
You know Goldschmidt—he’s a possible Hall of Famer—but he’s also at the tail end of his worst year as a pro. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and his OPS is dangerously close to starting with a six. He may bounce back, but I would bet on his goose being thoroughly singed.
Then we have Pete Alonso. The Twins are not ponying up for Pete Alonso.
That leaves two Diamondbacks: Walker and Bell. Walker is a fascinating player who, with enough squinting, looks something like a younger Santana, with his power bat and excellent defense. He would be a truly interesting multi-year target, but again, the pessimist in me remains skeptical that the Twins would meet his asking price. So it goes. Finally, we have the man abandoned by both the 2023 Guardians and 2024 Marlins, Josh Bell. That both squads deemed him unable to aid them tells you everything you need to know. He's superb at having half a good season, but has never had a full year of consistent productivity, and the Twins are unlikely to profit from gambling on changing that.
If you’re the Twins—unlikely to shell out much for a formidable thumper—Santana and the depressed salary he would command as an old player in a young man’s game seem like an attractive option. He probably wouldn’t sign for much more than his 2024 salary. The league just doesn't change its mind and double the demand for players as they approach age 40.
Ok, but what about the internal options?
José Miranda is the most likely heir to take over at the cold corner. His bat has returned to “oh yeah, this guy can hit” form, with a 120 wRC+ over 117 games, and he’s still in pre-arbitration. Given his putrid defensive metrics at third, it might make sense to go the Miguel Sanó route and bite the bullet, permanently moving him to the more lethargic position. The Twins love positional flexibility, though, and banishing Miranda to first would violate that principle. I think they’ll give him as much time as possible to prove himself incapable of handling the hot corner. (For the record, this is the path I see as most likely, in case the team doesn’t re-sign Santana.)
Other than that, Minnesota only has Alex Kirilloff—who can’t be depended on for anything at this time—and Yunior Severino, whose placement on the 40-man roster and complete lack of any major-league playing time tells you everything you need to know about how the Twins value him.
Anything on the trade block?
This is always a murky topic to investigate; we simply don’t know which players are actually available. Nor do we hear the web of conversations executives engage in. We can only guess.
Andrew Vaughn would be a fascinating buy-low candidate, if the White Sox were willing to deal within the division. Yandy Díaz could be another player in a long line of solid contributors deemed too expensive by Tampa Bay, which is a bit funny to say as a Twins fan, but Minnesota hasn’t become that poor yet. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wouldn’t make much sense on this team and would never happen, but it sure would be fun!
Huh, it sure seems like options are limited, then.
I would agree! Keeping Miranda as the future first baseman appears to be a logical move, but given that we can only tepidly write Royce Lewis in as the everyday third baseman, it might be wise for the team to keep their depth built at the position. Brooks Lee’s cup of coffee certainly hasn’t pushed anyone to move heaven and earth to keep him in the majors, either.
Given their alternatives, yeah, bringing back Santana for one more circuit of the sun seems like one of their only avenues. He’ll be 39 around the start of 2025—one of the only players left in MLB alive before the Twins won a World Series—which is probably the only concern surrounding Santana. Father Time is undefeated. But, his style of play has augured a beautiful aging curve so far—and he could very well become the team’s new Nelson Cruz.
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