Twins Video
Let's get this out of the way: I was wrong on this one. Very, very wrong. Comically wrong. I wrote on Wednesday that "I can't see the Twins making a serious play" for Santana, and a tweeted "it ain't happening." Shows what I know.
In fairness, this signing doesn't jibe with what Twins officials have been saying or doing over the past several months. The front office has (sometimes not so subtly) hinted that it doesn't really view contention in 2015 as realistic, with the focus more on on bridging the gap and maintaining long-term flexibility. This was backed up by implications from Terry Ryan and Dave St. Peter that payroll would not rise significantly, as well as by Minnesota's previous free agent splash.
Signing Torii Hunter to a one-year deal was a move that appeared to be aimed more at generating good will and creating a favorable environment for young players, as opposed to actually improving the team.
Indeed, it was hard to argue with La Velle's recent assessment:
Next offseason will be the one in which landing a top pitcher (Samardzija and David Price will be free agents) to anchor a revival will be a more palatable move.It's a roundabout way of saying my expectations for the [2015] Twins are low, low, low. My expectations for them this week at the winter meetings are low, low, low. And their chances of moving up the charts in the AL Central are low, low, low following Chicago's moves.
And yet, now Ryan has signed Santana to the largest free agent contract in franchise history -- a four-year deal that adds more reliability to the 2015 rotation, but inhibits the flexibility of that unit going forward while also carrying significant risk.
Just one year after throwing $50 million in guaranteed money at Ricky Nolasco (with disastrous results in Year One), the Twins have essentially doubled down, once again handing a lucrative four-year contract to past-30 a veteran with a good-not-great track record.
Nolasco's struggles this past season have no bearing on how this new acquisition will perform, and it seems fair to say that the Ryan and Co. are especially high on Santana since this isn't the first time the general manager has gone outside his comfort zone to pursue him. There were multiple reports that the Twins made a sizable multi-year offer to Santana last year, even after signing both Nolasco and Phil Hughes.
Santana is now a year older, and he took a small step backward in 2014 compared to 2013, but that didn't stop Ryan from upping his ante and forfeiting a valuable draft pick (something he's never done) to bring him aboard.
In the big picture, it's hard to view this as a great signing, because the Twins are now heavily invested in Santana into his mid-30s and are also reducing flexibility for young players to take over, both now and down the line.
They have three veterans locked in for 2016. In 2017, the club is committed to Santana and Nolasco -- who will both be 34 -- for more than $25 million.
In the scope of the ongoing rebuilding process, that might seem a little odd. There are several vaunted pitching prospects in the pipeline, some of whom are on the verge of arriving.
But to me, there are two big takeaways from the Santana addition:
1) The Twins are hedging their bets with prospects. It's easy to say now that a 2016 or 2017 rotation should be filled by Kyle Gibson, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, J.O. Berrios and maybe Kohl Stewart. But we've seen enough prospects derailed by injuries or heightened competition to know that planning around all those guys panning out is overly optimistic. If those pitchers (or others) do in fact all turn into major-leaguer starters, that's a nice problem to have.
2) Somewhere within the front office, urgency is building. Owner Jim Pohlad has made some public comments this offseason that have been noticeably at odds with Ryan's typically conservative demeanor; undoubtedly bristling at sagging ticket sales, Pohlad has hinted that he's ready to spend and give his product a more immediate jolt. I don't know how much he influenced the GM's pursuit of Santana (and others), but I'd guess it was significant. My sense was always that Ryan would personally prefer to pursue short-term options or make-good contracts (and that was actually my preferred strategy).
I can't say I love the Santana signing because it's a major commitment to an aging hurler who's never been truly great, but I view it as a solid move. The Twins are building some decent pitching depth and lessening their reliance on prospects, both of which were much needed.
Additionally, they're continuing to push back against the "cheap" label, and changing the perception that they simply aren't interested in spending to make the team better in a season where they are unlikely to compete for the playoffs. As a fan who's been frustrated with what I view as a defeatist attitude at times, I appreciate that.
At the end of the day, a $50 million contract (or even two $50 million contracts in two years) is not that substantial in today's MLB, nor is a team payroll just north of $100 million, which is where the Twins now sit. But this franchise is moving in the right direction, and giving fans some reason to hope that these miserable past four years really are in the rearview mirror.
Whether TR made that pivot on his own or required a little push from above, it's good to see.
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