Ranking the Top 10 Minnesota Twins Starting Pitching Trade Targets

It seems the Minnesota Twins will at some point return to the trade market for an improvement on the 2020 starting rotation. We may be waiting until the trade deadline for that move to come, but in the time until then let’s rank who may be available for the Twins to explore.

1. Joe Musgrove

4.44 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.3 fWAR

8.30 K/9 (21.9 K%), 2.06 BB/9 (5.4 BB%)

Contact Rates: Med 43.8%, Hard 37.3%

Swinging Strike 12.0%

Musgrove looks ready to take a step now to fit in the #2-#3 place in the Twins rotation. He may not have elite velocity all the time but averages around 93 mph and tops out at 95-97 mph. Who knows what Wes Johnson might be able to add to that mix to help him take those next steps to join Odorizzi and Berrios at the top of the rotation.

2. Matthew Boyd

4.56 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 3.3 fWAR

11.56 K/9 (30.2 K%) , 2.43 BB/9 (6.4 BB%)

Contact Rates: Med 41.8%, 40.7%

Swinging Strike 14.0%

I very easily could have put Boyd #1. His average velocity is similar to Musgrove but to this point has better swing and miss stuff. Call it a gut call and know I won't hate anyone for disagreeing with me especially on this ranking.

3. Jon Gray

3.84 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 2.9 fWAR

9.00 K/9 (23.6 K%) 3.36 BB/9 (8.8 BB%)

Contact rates: Med 45%, Hard 39.8%

Swinging Strike 11.7%

I may kick myself for this ranking. For what feels like ever Gray has been my target and hope for the Twins to acquire. His velocity is a bit better than the first two but doesn’t have the swing and miss capabilities yet. What I think knocked him down was his 50.4% groudball rate in 2019. That works with Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado, but even with Josh Donaldson in the mix, does it work as well for the Twins?

4. Marco Gonzales

3.99 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 3.7 fWAR

6.52 K/9 (17.0 K%), 2.48 BB/9 (6.5 BB%)

Contact Rates Medium 48.6%, Hard 33.3%

Swinging Strike 7.9%

Outside of the simple assumption that the Mariners won’t be competitive this year we haven’t heard Gonzales’ name nearly as much. He is not nearly as sexy of choice as the others before him on the list but just seemed to get things done in 2019.

5. Robbie Ray

4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 2.4 fWAR

12.13 K/9 (31.5 K%), 4.34 BB/9 (11.2 BB%)

Contact Rates: Med 40.3%, Hard 43.4%

Swinging Strike 13.6%

After the Diamondbacks acquired Starling Marte this seems like an even less likely trade at least until mid-summer. The one year deal also doesn’t feel like the sort of trade this front office would want to pursue. So maybe likelihood is creeping into my ranking but he also has the highest walk rate so far out of the pitchers we have looked at.

6. Sandy Alcantara

3.88 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 2.3 fWAR

6.89 K/9 (18.0 K%), 3.69 BB/9 (9.7 BB%)

Contact Rates Medium 45.7%, Hard 34.6%

Swinging Strike 11.0%

The Twins have certainly been linked to the Miami Marlins this off-season. Alcantara seems to be the most attractive arm available. He doesn’t currently have the results of huge swing and miss stuff, but the tools seem to be there. Here is a deeper look into Alcantara.

7. Chris Sale

4.40 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.6 fWAR

13.32 K/9 (35.6%), 2.26 BB/9 (6.1%)

Contact Rates Medium 47.1%, Hard 36.0%

Swinging Strike 14.2%

Sale is probably hard to get, but if he would be made available he continues to pitch well. We have also seen in the past his ability to be a true frontline ace. Is that ability still there? That would be the gamble that would be taken.

8. David Price

4.28 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 2.3 fWAR

10.73 K/9 (28.0%), 2.68 BB/9 (7.0%)

Contact Rates: Med 43.4%, Hard 36.9%

Swing Strike 11.2%

Second Red Sox pitcher in row, similar story. Difference is we know Price is much more available due to his 3 year, $96 million contract. Is there enough in the tank to trade for that price tag is the question teams continue to ask.

9. Chris Archer

5.19 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 0.7 fWAR

10.75 K/9(27.2%), 4.14 BB/9(10.5%)

Contact Rates Medium 43.5%, Hard 40.1%

Swinging Strike 12.9%

This will feel very low to many for Archer. On contract alone I considered flipping him and Price, but unlike many I don’t think Archer’s problem is just pitching in Pittsburgh. I wrote more here about how the signs were there for decline before the trade.

10. Caleb Smith

4.52 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 1.0 fWAR

9.86 K/9(26.0%), 3.52 BB/9 (9.3%)

Contact Rates Medium 45.9%, Hard 37.4%

Swinging Strike 12.6%

Smith burst onto the scene a bit last season. The buzz around him made him feel much better than the numbers do. Nothing stellar but if the Twins see something that can be adjusted to get even more results the left-hander he is certainly an arm worth exploring.

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