Process Set to Yield Results for Kepler

Great article. May it rain four-leaf clovers on Max next season. If there is such thing as a luck account, might as well credit the rest of the season. Go big on debits next season.

Thanks, Ted, for confirming what I thought I had been seeing all year.

The problem is that with almost 1500 MLB PAs, Kepler has a career BABIP of .264. He's never hit very many line drives, which produce by far the highest likelihood of a hit. Benintendi and Bregman, by contrast, hit a ton of line drives.

Average launch angle doesn't really capture this issue because flyballs and groundballs average out on paper, masking Kepler's poor distribution of batted balls.

Kepler's batted ball profile has been very consistent over his career, which worries me because it indicates that bad luck is not a significant driver of his mediocre results.

He will have to hit the ball harder or hit more line drives to produce beyond his current level with any consistency.

Good article, especially noting the "unfairness" of some of the stats and results that Kepler has this season. I'm basing my opinion on only a handful of clips of Kepler I've seen in the past month, but his approach at the plate looks better/smoother (more fluid?), and that all-important self-confidence seems to be kicking in as well. Hope he continues to make progress. We need him in that outfield.

The problem is that with almost 1500 MLB PAs, Kepler has a career BABIP of .264. He's never hit very many line drives, which produce by far the highest likelihood of a hit. Benintendi and Bregman, by contrast, hit a ton of line drives.

 

Average launch angle doesn't really capture this issue because flyballs and groundballs average out on paper, masking Kepler's poor distribution of batted balls.

 

Kepler's batted ball profile has been very consistent over his career, which worries me because it indicates that bad luck is not a significant driver of his mediocre results.

 

He will have to hit the ball harder or hit more line drives to produce beyond his current level with any consistency.

You make an excellent point and the numbers show it.   Kepler's been at a 16-17 LD%, while Bregman and Benintendi are 22-23%.

Kepler did have a 22-23% rate in his monster A+/AA season of 2015.  Yes, it's an outlier, but he was pretty young and likely physically immature player in the seasons prior to that.  

He's made the adjustment against LHP at the big league level, so I'm hopeful that he can adjust again to drive the ball more.  

He's been slower to develop at the big league level, but we have been able to see a player that is maturing year over year.  

I wouldn't bet on him getting to perennial outputs of Bregman and Benintendi, but if it happened, I wouldn't be that surprised either.

I've been very pleased with kepler's continued good defensive play, but I'm concerned about the hitting. there's some positives in the peripherals, but also some things that make you wonder if there's going to be much more advancement.

drivelikejehu makes a good point: it's harder to blame this season's low BA on luck when kepler has never had a BABIB over .276 in his MLB career. What if last season was the aberration and we should expect something around .265? He might actually only be a little unlucky this year (.252) not significantly so.

The ISO has been remarkably consistent: 

2016: .189

2017: .182

2018: .187

I don't think the jury is in yet on Max; the fact that he's not getting crushed by LHPs this season is a good sign...but it's a pretty SSS. (I'm not ready to say he's figured it out based on 130 PAs) His struggles against RHP is a bit weird, after 2 seasons where he raked against them, so maybe the bad luck is concentrated there?

not ready to give up on Max, but overall this feels like a disappointing season so far. maybe he'll finish strong? I'm rooting for him, to be sure.

I'm also skeptical of the 'bad luck' theory in the case of Kepler.  The data that drivelikejehu and JLease cite is just as real (and relevant) as the data called out in the article.  Additionally, Max's hard-hit balls are distributed very predictably on the pull side.  He's easy to defend.

Having said that, he's improved on some aspects, and shows every sign of being the type of player that will continue to put in the work to continue to improve.  That simple fact along with him still only in his age 25 season suggests that there will be plenty value there before it's all said and done.

Probably should have included a link to Parker's article and thread where all of this is hashed out. It's a good point and counter point. All lift is not created equal. 100 mph two hoppers are outs as often as hits.

Max and Byron should look over their shoulders.   Alex Kirilloff is getting closer (may cruise both AA an AAA next year!)

This article was written in the middle of the last/most recent road trip.  On that road trip, Kepler posted a BABiP of .056 (1 for 18).  If Max were to get 6 hits on his next 6 balls-in-play, he'd still be below (for the recent stretch) the 'normal' that is being suggested here as Kepler's inevitable destiny.

OK...1 for 18 is bad luck.  But, the idea that all batters will tend toward a .300 BABiP is a false narrative.  Max's batter ball profile will need to change to get to the optimistic end of our hopes.

1) Max Kepler hasn't been bad.

2) All 3 of Kepler's seasons in the majors are of similar caliber, he has been the same player for 3 years.

3) He was in the minors for the maximum amount of time. He's been playing professional ball long enough to know who he is. (Anything at A+ and above is considered professional baseball.)

I don't think Kepler is going to get much better, except possibly on defense. But he's also not bad, so big deal.

The Twins are paying him the minimum they can and he has been worth $10M - $15M a year. Where's the problem?

Should this thread have really been titled "Will Max Kepler ever be an All-Star?" Probably not. So what? He is a contributor. He's at the same level as Greg Gagne (87), Randy Bush (87), Roy Smalley (87), Gene Larkin (87, 91).... All solid contributors to world series winning teams.

Should this thread have really been titled "Will Max Kepler ever be an All-Star?" Probably not. So what? He is a contributor. He's at the same level as Greg Gagne (87), Randy Bush (87), Roy Smalley (87), Gene Larkin (87, 91).... All solid contributors to world series winning teams.

Agree that you can win championships with solidly/consistently average players...even at several positions.  Also, I do think Max can be better than solidly average...but how much better is what is at the heart of this article.

One of the central themes of the article (and an article that proceeded it) is that Max has been 'unlucky' with regard to batted-ball results.  And that we could expect better results in the future based both on real (for lack of a better term) improvements he is making...but also based on his batted ball luck normalizing.  I'm disagreeing with the later, is all.  At 1500 career plate appearances, his BABiP has already 'normalized'...and it's a low number.

And that we could expect better results in the future based both on real (for lack of a better term) improvements he is making...but also based on his batted ball luck normalizing.  I'm disagreeing with the later, is all.  At 1500 career plate appearances, his BABiP has already 'normalized'...and it's a low number.

Bingo, there's bad luck and sure, Max has had some but at that many PA's, it's eventually just that's the hitter you are.

Very interesting stuff. My wife cannot understand why I'm fascinated by all of this.

One thing the Angels did with Ohtani almost immediately (because he was struggling so mightily...we heard about it every night here in Japan) was to restructure his stance so as to keep his front foot toe on the ground just as Rosario does. Ohtani adjusted well and it allowed him to see the ball better and to drive it the opposite way better (according to Japanese sports analysts...but no data here) especially on pitches down and away. I also think it helped his balance a lot, so he made contact at a flatter angle. I notice Kepler also lifts his leg and drops it (not nearly as pronounced as Ohtani but he does do it), and his batting average on pitches away is equally as poor as those on the inside part of the plate. It is always a tricky proposition, but I wonder if he might be open to a slight adjustment on his stance.