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Over nearly a two-decade stretch, first base was a position of steady continuity (and alliteration) for the Twins franchise, with Mientkiewicz giving way to Morneau and then Mauer. Miguel tried to carry the torch, but Sanó's tenure at first ended in 2022 after three seasons, and last year, the position felt a bit rudderless in the absence of all these Ms.
No player started more than 64 games at first base in 2023, and we can probably expect a similarly wide distribution in the coming season. In fact, for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins, smartly rotating players through the position may hold the key to unlocking its potential.
TWINS FIRST BASEMEN AT A GLANCE
Starter: Carlos Santana
Backup: Alex Kirilloff
Depth: José Miranda, Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer
Prospects: Yunior Severino, Aaron Sabato
Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 12th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 26th out of 30
THE GOOD
The Twins have three primary players slotted into their first base mix heading into 2024: Santana, Kirilloff and Miranda. There's a nice balance to this blend: Experience and youth. Aggressiveness and patience. A lefty, a righty, and a switch-hitter.
The addition of Santana was deemed necessary due to question marks surrounding the other two; he's a good fit in that he provides a stable floor without standing as a major barrier for Kirilloff or Miranda to break through. That is a possibility Minnesota's front office clearly wants to keep open, and for valid reason.
Kirilloff can feature as the focal point in the lineup against righties when healthy and on his game. This is not so much theoretical as proven, albeit never in sustained fashion. The 26-year-old had his most productive burst yet last year, posting a 117 OPS+ in 88 games, but his campaign was once again derailed by injury and ended with surgery. This time it's a shoulder operation that he's looking to bounce back from while also still dealing with a twice-repaired wrist.
Likewise, Miranda is coming back from his own shoulder procedure (scar tissue removal) that was deemed relatively minor. Unlike Kirilloff, Miranda experienced no success whatsoever in a lost 2023 season, slashing just .211/.263/.303 in 40 games with the Twins and failing to elevate his game much in the hitter-friendly confines of St. Paul.
It was a hugely discouraging season, but not enough to fully dismiss all the promise he showed previously. Miranda starred in the minors during a breakthrough 2021 campaign and looked the part for much of his rookie year in '22. With Royce Lewis now entrenched at third, first base is Miranda's best opportunity to rebuild his value. If healthy and on the big-league roster he'd be favorably set up to do so, drawing at-bats against left-handed pitching in a platoon with the lefty-swinging Kirilloff. But the arrival of Santana likely means Miranda, still only 25, will need to wait his turn in the minors.
Kirilloff and Miranda both feel like major wild-cards for the Twins and their offensive outlook this year. But it's nice that the club isn't entirely dependent on either, having acquired Santana as a veteran stopgap and contingency plan. While his bat is much diminished from its prime, Santana was still above-average last year at age 37 and his disciplined approach at the plate limits the chances of a total aging-related collapse. He also brings a high-quality glove, which the Twins have lacked at first base.
THE BAD
Although Santana remains a solid and slightly above-average hitter overall, his offense no longer stands out at his position the way it did during his prime in Cleveland. Last year his .323 wOBA ranked 17th out of 24 qualified first basemen, and unsurprisingly, projection systems are envisioning further decline from Santana, who turns 38 in April. ZiPS forecasts a .302 wOBA, which would've ranked third-worst at the positon last year.
The hope is that Santana's role can be reduced and optimized, rotating strategically against left-handed pitching and maybe stepping aside at one point to make room for a fully-formed combo of Kirilloff and Miranda. But then, that was also the hope last year with Donovan Solano, and he wound up getting the third-most plate appearances on the team.
As tantalizing it as it is to dream on Kirilloff and Miranda forming a mega-platoon, it's tough to trust either heading into this season. The uncertainty around both potential difference-makers puts the Twins in a bind, wanting to keep the gate open but at the same time needing to install a dependable short-term holding wall. With a limited budget, they landed on the aging Santana as their best bet.
We'll see how it goes. Projections are not rosy; FanGraphs projects the Twins to rank second-worst in the American League at first base.
THE BOTTOM LINE
It's a big year for Kirilloff and Miranda. If either one can prove healthy and seize their potential over a sustained stretch, they are going have a shot at taking over this job. Santana is not a big impediment, which also speaks to his quality as a fill-in.
I'll be curious to see how many appearances guys like Julien and Severino make at first this year. Giving prospect Brooks Lee a shot here would also be a possibility if things are clicking elsewhere in the infield. The roster is not exactly robust with reliable options but the Twins do have depth.
Heading into the 2024 season, the future at first base still feels rudderless in many ways. The Twins are hoping one of their former top hitting prospects can re-emerge and establish himself as the next long-term solution. "M" alliteration accepted, but not required.
Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:
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