Pick Your Pitcher: Who Should Get the Twins' 5th Rotation Spot?

The front-runners

Randy Dobnak

The Dobber was the Twins’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year after posting an incredible 2.07 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 135 innings at three different levels in 2019. Dobnak futher impressed for the Twins, holding a 1.59 ERA in 28 1/3 innings with 23 strikeouts and five walks. Dobnak started game two of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium, and while depth was a major issue, Rocco and company had a relatively easy decision handing him the ball. Dobnak has continued his excellence this spring.

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Dobnak relies mostly on his “one-seamer,” a variation of a diving sinker that generated an expected .659 OPS in 2019. Batters whiffed on 46% of his curveballs and his four-seam fastball averaged a not-too-shabby 93.4 MPH. His 54% ground ball rate was nearly 10% above league average (45.4%), and the addition of Josh Donaldson should only help him in that regard. Dobnak has proven that he can get major leaguers out consistently with his unique and effective repertoire.

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Jhoulys Chacín

Once a highly efficient front-end arm, Chacín joins the Twins in Fort Myers following a disastrous 2019 season. From 2010 to 2018, Chacín ranked 37th in ERA (3.86) and 30th in OPS against (.704) among starters with at least 1,000 innings pitched. Chacín pitched for the Brewers in the 2018 postseason and didn’t allow a run until his 11th inning pitched.

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In 2019, he was the seventh worst starting pitcher who threw at least 100 innings with a 6.01 ERA. The key question for Chacín is: What the heck happened?

Chacín lost command of his sinker and was forced to throw more sliders, thus becoming more predictable and hittable. His sinker was ineffective and his slider, while still nasty, was hit much harder (.215/.292/.379) than it was in 2018 (.158/.222/.270). The focus seems to be throwing more strikes with his sinker, a pitch that he commanded well up until 2019. As was referenced on Gleeman and the Geek, the only way to keep all four of these pitchers in the organization is to choose Chacín, who is in Fort Myers on a minor-league deal with no options.

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The dark horses:

Devin Smeltzer

The one dubbed as “Alka-Smeltzer” on Twitter has exuberant resiliency and grit. He gets batters out with less-than-stellar stuff and an insane spin rate that could potentially give him some more upside. Smeltzer pitched more innings for the Twins in 2019 than anyone on this list. He posted a 3.86 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 49 innings, starting six games and relieving in five. He could potentially fill a long relief role in 2020 if he doesn’t land the starting job. Smeltzer is a great story and a really solid pitcher.

Lewis Thorpe

Returning to camp after tending to personal matters, Thorpe is perhaps the longest shot to win the job. He arguably has the best stuff and highest upside of these four, but his struggles with the Twins last year (6.18 ERA), and slow start to spring training will likely land him in Rochester to begin 2020. However, the Twins are high on him and view him as a building block for their future rotation. His outstanding strikeout numbers and impressive arsenal make him a potential X-factor for the Twins.

What do you think? Who should get the fifth spot in the Opening Day rotation?

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