Twins Video
Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (83 Pitches, 56 Strikes, 67.4%)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (20)
Bottom 3 WPA: Steven Okert (-.721), Ober (-.160), José Miranda (-.147)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
In what felt like a blink of an eye, a four-game winning streak and a four-run lead in Texas Sunday became a two-game losing streak. As opposed to the dysfunctional Rangers, Tuesday's opponent was the red-hot San Diego Padres, who authored the second half of what the Twins hoped would be only a miniature backslide. On the plus side, Bailey Ober was starting for the Twins, and he has been outrageous since June, with the changeup becoming a signature pitch for the massive righty.
Opposing Ober was Martín Pérez, an enigmatic relic from the Bomba Squad days. Pérez has periodically been good for a handful of teams throughout his career, and was periodically good in this game, as well. The Twins started quietly, with the first five batters being retired in order without much hard contact to speak of.
Similarly, Ober started efficiently, retiring the first five hitters in 18 pitches. Wünderkind Jackson Merrill (Is it me or does his batting stance look exactly like Freddie Freeman's?), who almost singlehandedly won the game and ruined Zebby Matthews Day on Monday, managed to lace a two-out double into the gap, and scored on a grounder up the middle from veteran David Peralta.
The Twins appeared to counter quickly, with Max Kepler and Austin Martin starting the third inning with singles. Manuel Margot was not told (or chose to ignore it, if he was; let's assume the former, for everyone's sake) to bunt, and that decision was certainly defensible, but he grounded into an easy double play to kill whatever rally there was.
They capitalized, instead, in the fourth. Following a leadoff double from Carlos Santana, Pérez left a cutter in the middle of the plate that Ryan Jeffers demolished for his 20th home run.
Meanwhile, Ober was lulling the Padres to sleep. He relied on his usual routine of coaxing soft enough contact early in counts that Padres hitters were caught in between jumping on pitches early in counts and hitting medium-deep fly balls, or working the count and risking the wrath of his wipeout change. This one, in particular, made on-base machine Jurickson Profar look like a blindfolded Chris Parmelee:
The top of the fifth began the same way as the top of the third, and the results were almost as disastrous. With Kepler and Martin aboard and no outs, Margot again chose (or was told) not to bunt, but this time singled to left (and all the analytics nerds went wild). That brought up Royce Lewis to face Pérez (.386 BAA the third time through the order). Lewis delivered a sacrifice fly to score Kepler. Martin aggressively took third, and the ball got away from Manny Machado at third. Martin tried to score, but he was thrown out easily, putting a damper on another rally that was extinguished when Santana grounded out to end the frame.
The bottom of the seventh saw Jake Cronenworth open the frame with a bloop double placed perfectly between Miranda and Matt Wallner, in left. That portended doom, with Machado stepping to the plate, and the six-time All-Star did not disappoint his home crowd, launching a no-doubter to left-center to tie the game at 3-3 and end Ober's night. Ober's command was sharp all night, but his 0-1 cutter to Machado was middle-middle.
The Twins got right back to work in the next half-inning against the prize of the trade deadline, lefty reliever Tanner Scott. Lewis led off with a single off the glove of shortstop Tyler Wade, Santana laced a hard single to left, and Jeffers smoked a single up the middle. That brought up Miranda, who popped out after being reprimanded by home plate umpire Malachi Moore for protesting a check-swing call. No matter, as Christian Vázquez pinch-hit and stroked a single to left to score Lewis and Santana. Jeffers was thrown out at third on an incredible play by left fielder Profar, who delivered an accurate throw while running toward the left field stands at top speed. So instead of one out and runners at second and third, it was two outs and a runner at second. Willi Castro then attempted to bunt and was thrown out easily to end the inning.
The two-run rejoinder should have given the Twins and their fans a lot of confidence going into the bottom of the eighth, but these Padres haven't exactly been rolling over when behind late in games. The legend Donovan Solano led off as a pinch-hitter against Steven Okert, who took over for Griffin Jax, and hit a sharp single on an 0-2 pitch. The even more legendary Luis Arráez flipped a single to left, and just like that, the segment of the lineup that had made Okert an appealing choice for Rocco Baldelli had slipped by without an out being recorded. Profar, who had struck out three times against Ober, golfed a go-ahead three-run homer faster than you could say Kody Funderburk.
Okert actually produced a worse WPA in this game than Jorge Alcalá posted Sunday, at -.721. For the season, Okert sits at -1.82.
The Twins went down 1-2-3 in the ninth against Robert Suarez to end it.
Trends:
| Healthy | Hurt | ||||
| Performing Great | |||||
| Fine | |||||
| Poor | |||||
| IL/Minors | |||||
| C | Ryan Jeffers 📈 | Christian Vazquez 📈 | |||
| 1B | Carlos Santana 📈 | Alex Kirilloff 📉 | Jose Miranda 📈 | ||
| 2B | Edouard Julien 📉 | Kyle Farmer 📈' | |||
| 3B | Royce Lewis 📉 | ||||
| SS | Carlos Correa 📈 | Brooks Lee 📉 | |||
| LF | Matt Wallner 📉 | Trevor Larnach 📈 | Austin Martin 📈 | ||
| CF | Byron Buxton 📉 | Manuel Margot 📉 | |||
| RF | Max Kepler 📉 | ||||
| UTIL | Willi Castro 📉 | ||||
| SP | Pablo Lopez 📈 | Bailey Ober 📈 | Joe Ryan 📉 | Chris Paddack 📉 | Louie Varland 📈 |
| RSP | David Festa 📈 | Zebby Matthews 📈 |
Simeon Woods Richardson 📈
|
||
| CR | Jhoan Duran 📈 | Griffin Jax 📈 | |||
| SR | Brock Stewart 📉 | Jorge Alcala 📉 | Cole Sands 📈 | ||
| MR | Trevor Richards 📈 | Caleb Thielbar 📈 | Steven Okert 📉 | ||
| LR | Josh Winder 📈 | Ronny Henriquez 📈 | Randy Dobnak 📉 |
Stray Notes:
-Miranda is hitting a lot of balls on the ground, and although he managed a single in the sixth, he was picked off of first base. That was one of three key outs on the bases
-Jeffers joins an exclusive club of 20-homer Twins catchers. Mitch Garver, Joe Mauer and Earl Battey are the only other members.
What’s Next: Simeon Woods Richardson (4-3, 3.77 ERA), faces knuckleballer Matt Waldron (7-10, 4.29 ERA) trying to salvage the series. Waldron has been a godsend for the Padres, posting 138 solid innings for a rotation that has been decimated by injuries thus far. Waldron doesn't just throw knucklers, although that pitch does constitute 39% of his pitches. It will be interesting to see the Twins' approach against a pitch that no one else in the majors throws in a very important game.
Postgame Interviews:
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| FRI | SAT | SUN | MON | TUE | TOT | |
| Richards | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 0 | 40 |
| Jax | 19 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 38 |
| Henríquez | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 37 |
| Alcalá | 0 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Sands | 18 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Thielbar | 18 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 27 |
| Okert | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 27 |
| Durán | 13 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
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