Matt Wallner Has Changed the Twins Plans

When the Twins selected him in the first round in the 2018 draft, it was apparent what the organization saw in the 6'4" left-handed hitting Trevor Larnach. His knowledge of the strike zone and all-fields approach set him up to become a force at the plate with just a few improvements in the profile to reach his raw power. Unfortunately, as his age-26 season wraps up, those improvements haven't been made, and Matt Wallner has passed him by.

Many wrote Matt Wallner off, seemingly within the Twins organization, because of his defense and strikeout rates. At the end of a pointless 2022 season, the team spent much of August and September allowing players such as Jake Cave to take regular at-bats over Wallner, suggesting they didn't see much of a future. He was finally called up and finished with a slightly above-league average batting line, but the strikeouts ballooned as feared, resulting in the 2022 Minor Leaguer Hitter of the Year opening 2023 right back in St. Paul. 

The Twins had a goal for Wallner, and it was a lofty one: strike out less. Despite a near 30% K rate in St. Paul, Wallner adjusted, finishing with a 22.4% K rate in his last month and a half in Triple-A.

This improvement was enough to push him ahead of Trevor Larnach, who had yet to show the ability to be an MLB regular for more than a week or so at a time as he neared 700 career plate appearances. The rest is history, as Matt Wallner has been a critical piece of the Twins' offense since his call-up. Though Larnach's sample size is much larger, it's easy to see what the Twins think.

Wallner and Larnach share a lot of similarities in approach. They have a tremendous knowledge of the strike zone. Their ability to walk makes them vulnerable to taking close strikes, and pairing that with their swing-and-miss profiles, strikeouts will always be a part of the equation. The difference is the ability to do damage. The three true outcomes approach only works when achieving the all-important third outcome (home runs). As we've seen with Larnach, the above-average walk rate is nice, but when the strikeouts are high and he's not driving the ball, solely getting on base doesn't contribute that much to an offense.

Players in 2023 with a similar power output level to Larnach's career .380 slugging mark include a trio of Guardians players Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, and Steven Kwan. Imagining any of these players without the stolen bases and with a 30+% strikeout rate should say all you need to know about why Larnach's lack of consistency in the power department is untenable.

There's little doubt that the power will be there for Wallner, on the other hand. His ability to adjust the whiffs to acceptable rates, remaining under 30% at the big league level this year, has made the competition a no-brainer. Perhaps Wallner's strikeouts regress to troublesome levels, but it's unlikely the power goes away, and Larnach is headed in the wrong direction regarding whiffs himself.

Regarding two players with similar skill sets, how the season finishes will have a lot of bearing on the two corner outfielders. If Wallner finishes up in 2023 anywhere near as strong as he's been, it's bad news for Larnach's Twins career. It is conceivable that both players roam the same outfield, but it's unlikely the Twins would want such a lack of range in both corners, and their offensive profiles resemble each other very closely.

Larnach was drawing interest at the trade deadline, and he could likely find himself on the market again should Wallner continue to mash. While it would be disappointing to see a former promising player go, perhaps it finally leads to sustained playing time for the would-be 27-year-old.

There's still time for things to play out, but Matt Wallner has taken Trevor Larnach's potential spot in the Twins' plans. After showing so many significant flaws in his game throughout the minors, Wallner shows that he can adjust and that his strengths can overpower his shortcomings. Larnach just has yet to show the same ability.

While disappointing for Larnach, the Twins are fortunate that Matt Wallner has taken the next step and passed him by. The hope is that the walks and power remain for the long haul, making him a hulking piece of the Twins' offense for years to come. For now, this looks much likelier than Trevor Larnach occupying a space for the future.

Matt Wallner has earned the spot once thought reserved for Trevor Larnach. Do you agree?