Looking Into 6 Twins-Related Steamer Projections for 2020

Regression to the mean is always a big thing in these projections, which is probably why Kepler is only projected to rack up 3.5 fWAR; considering Kepler took a big leap forward last season, but had improved his fWAR every year for the past 4, the regression is probably overstated assuming good health. I'm not always the biggest fan of Fangraphs defensive ratings, which seems to be hurting Kepler as well.

#2 & #3 are reasonable, but I suspect Buxton clears if he plays 140 games. Man, I hope he plays 140 games.

#4 seems reasonable. If Arraez can get within shouting distance of an .800 OPS, I think everyone will smile and call it a solid sophomore season.

#5: I think we all want more out of Garver if he keeps hitting like this. Rest is good, but we can find another 15-20 games for him to play, even if it's not catching. Cruz is probably going to need more days off this year with the wrist, so throw him some DH and 1B time to keep his bat in the lineup.

#6: all seem reasonable; some of them may not get that AB with the Twins. I think Lewis is the least likely because he needs a good, healthy year in the minors and there's no need to rush him. Larnach is the next least likely just because there are quite a few OFs ahead of him, so unless he really crushes it, he'll probably have to get in line.

The one I have the biggest problem with is #1. While you can predict regression to the mean for the typical individual player, to expect all 4 to regress to below that number and no one else to emerge above it? Odds are someone won’t regress that much.

I'm wondering what the Steamer projections were going into the 2019 season. I'm guessing they weren't close to what actually happened.

I agree with almost everything MikeLink45 had to say.  I think Arraez's ability to hit doubles like JLease pointed will help his slugging % as well.  I'll take 39 HR's out of Cruz.  But while I don't think Kepler will be a superstar, I can't see Rosario having a better OPS.  Max just walks so much more than Eddie, and as was pointed out Kepler has improved his fWar each of the last couple seasons.  I think he's turned a corner.  I'd be really interested to see what they project for Polanco since he's such a glue-guy for their lineup.  I think offense will be down slightly but not as much as most people think.

I'll gladly debate any number.

 

The slight negative defensive projection they have for Kepler looks odd. Both he and Buxton are projected to play nearly full seasons, which puts Kep in RF most of the time.

I agree with ashbury.  I was looking at the defensive metrics of Buxton and Kepler and they are impressive.  He definitely shouldn’t be negative.

 In particular, I like the inside edge fielding given by fan graphs, where Kepler caught 67% of the “even” balls (should be caught 40-60% of time) at both positions.  For crazy numbers, go look at what Buxton has there.  For example, he catches 20% of the Remote (1-10%) balls and 68% of the Unlikely (10-40%) balls.

A healthy Buxton goes a long way to improving the pitching staff.

As a whole, there is nothing to argue with. They are fair projections overall. With health, I think all are a little low. Nut none of them show any extreme regression or disappointment.

Interesting Gordon wasn't mentioned as getting an appearance. I'd think he's near the top of the list.

Gordon is predicted to get 39 at-bats. I was just taking a look at the prospects who were projected exactly one AB.

I will be disappointed with the team if Garver doesn't play more....

I am not sure that steamer is projecting playing time at this point beyond calculating from previous seasons. There will always be a bunch of young players with 1 PA or very few PAs where any value comes from the rate stats.

Fangraphs will do custom playing time estimates much closer to opening day.

2019 ops predictions for Steamer/Razzball

Polanco .751

Melson Cruz  .895

Schoop .769

Kepler .772

Crom .804

Sano .782

Marwin .768

Castro .671

Astudilo .763

Garver .722

OK, last winter it would give someone a talking point. Accuracy? IDK how it could be called accurate.

I'm not sure what that has to do with wanting him to play more than he oddly did last year, even after Cron was ineffective.

Your comment had me wondering about playing time calculations and whether they had meaning or changed. I did some searching and reading on fangraphs and shared.

I apologize for quoting your post. I think too often a quote is taken as meaning a different point of view. I should have written without the quote.

It would be crazy not to want Garver to play more.

Blankenhorn is only if Sano is injured

Blankenhorn is only if Sano is injured - Sorry I forgot to add my comment.  Nostradamus says "It doesn't take a genius to predict that Sano will miss at least 25 games.

There is little reason the Twins shouldn't be the same or better overall (current player-wise) in 2020. Everyone is still is sorta prime playing years. The ball may not bomb as far, so the Twins need to work on advancing that extra base. The bullpen looks pretty strong. Hopefully money spent will replicate the rotation which started the majority of the season games with just five arms in 2019. Arraz will have a bit less pop than Schoop, but a full season from any numebr of players or positions might help offset that. Do the Twins need speed on the bases? Is fielding still an issue? Can they WIN in Target Field? Those are the questions I see in 2020.

I have no way to challenge Steamer, but I am not a Raley fan and I hope Kiriloff and Larnach take any ABs that he would have and that he is part of a trade! 

 

Blankenhorn is only if Sano is injured - I sure hope not.  Sano is more of a 40+ HR hitter to me.  He is not limited by the juiced ball like Polanco and others are.

 

If Garver is only 96 games he has regressed. If this projection is true Jeffers will have a lot more than 1 AB.

 

I want Buxton to steal 50!  I know I am retro.  I also believe in Arraez and he will hit the doubles that bring his OPS up. 

 

Finally, my most controversial stance - I am not as big on Kepler as many are - so I will say that Rosario will have more WAR that Max - take your shots!!!

Barring injury, I'll gladly take that bet.

And I'm cool with Buxton stealing 50 bases provided he has enough of those opportunities that make sense. If it take him 80 attempts to get there I'm less thrilled.