Guardians 5, Twins 3: Guardians Devil Magic Upends Twins Shot at Series Win

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: David Festa: 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (70 Pitches, 46 Strikes, 65.7%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton 2 (16)
Bottom 3 WPA: Cole Sands (-.251), Caleb Thielbar (-.157), Festa (-.090)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

To dramatic sorts who believe that a 3.5-game deficit is somehow insurmountable with more than a quarter of the season to go, this was a pretty big game. The Twins took the first two games of the four-game set via a doubleheader sweep before falling 2-1 on Saturday, with Gavin Williams dominating a Royce Lewis-less Minnesota lineup. The series finale featured rookie David Festa against de facto Cleveland ace Tanner Bibee. A win would put the Twins 1.5 games back with 45 games to play.

Festa started the day by walking Steven Kwan, with the Cleveland left fielder laying off some close pitches. Kwan has speed, but he stayed at first, with, hold on. Will Brennan was hitting second. I simply cannot fathom an organization with a sterling reputation for being analytics-forward playing a hitter whom they had just recently called up from the minors, with a career 89 OPS+ in 754 plate appearances, in the second spot. In a lineup that thinks of itself World Series contending, no less. It's not like they don't have options: José Ramírez, Josh Naylor and David Fry all hit behind the Quadruple-A outfielder. I'm fairly certain even Ron Gardenhire wouldn't do something this foolish if he were managing today. Brennan would finish 1-5.

Anyway, Brennan, Ramírez and Naylor all went down quietly. Tanner Bibee, for his part, has been an excellent starting pitcher since debuting early in 2023. With Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie both out of the picture (though McKenzie could return shortly following his demotion), Bibee has assumed the number-one spot in Cleveland's rotation. He relies on good velocity on his four-seam fastball that plays off his above-average secondary offerings, and he locates everything quite well. Following an injury scare involving his shoulder, Bibee had a bullpen session on Friday that went well enough for him to pitch today.

He looked okay, staying off of the barrels of Twins bats while painting the edges of the zone. He was sailing through the first four hitters, before he left a first-pitch fastball in the middle of the zone to Byron Buxton, who launched it 107 MPH into the left-field bleachers to score the game's first run.

He somehow left an even fatter pitch to Max Kepler, who roped it 109 MPH for a single. Kyle Farmer then nearly delivered a two-run homer, which would have been his first of the year, off a high slider.

Meanwhile, Festa was cruising, with a change-up heavy approach that Cleveland was aggressive against, resulting in a lot of quick outs. Festa flew a little too close to the sun against Ramírez in the fourth, though, as he left a change-up in the zone. Ramírez crushed it to tie the game.

Following a Naylor single on another changeup, a massive (though seemingly innocuous) call went against Festa against David Fry. Behind 2-1, Festa threw a change right on the corner, clearly a strike. It was called a ball instead, which made the count 3-1. Fry then walked on another close pitch, putting two Cleveland runners on with nobody out.

The Guardians ended up loading the bases following a groundout by Andrés Giménez and a walk to Cody Schneeman. That prompted Rocco Baldelli to pull Festa from the game in favor of Jorge Alcalá, who induced two weak flyouts to escape any further damage.

I cannot help but wonder what would have happened had the fourth pitch to Fry been called correctly. The expected numbers on a 3-1 count (1.026 OPS) are just massively different than a 2-2 (.586 OPS). Of course, no runs scored, but Festa may have remained in the game a bit longer had he recorded an out in the Fry at-bat.

The next eight outs went by in a flash for both teams. with Bibee and Alcalá breezing though the bottom of the fourth and top of the fifth, respectively. With two outs in the fifth, Christian Vázquez came about one inch from making the game 2-1, with his moonshot landing on top of the padding in left field and coming back to the field of play. Willi Castro then singled to right, but the ball was hit too hard, even with two outs, to score the plodding Vázquez. Brennan did throw home, resulting in Castro trying to take second on the throw. He was initially ruled out on the throw from catcher Bo Naylor, but confirmed safe after a challenge from Baldelli. It was all for naught, as Trevor Larnach struck out on a diving slider from Bibee.

Of course, these are the Guardians, and David Fry launched a no-doubt home run to break the tie off of Caleb Thielbar in the next frame.

Thielbar labored, after that, throwing 30 pitches and issuing two walks. He retired Bo Naylor, and was then relieved in favor of Cole Sands. In true Guardians fashion, Brayan Rocchio broke his bat and got a single, Steven Kwan rolled a dribbler (.140 xBA) by Castro at short and Brennan had slightly harder contact on his single to score Rocchio. The score was 5-1 when all was said and done, and somehow, my laptop survived being thrown out the window. It is truly astounding how this Guardians team has two functional starting pitchers and five of their lineup regulars wouldn't start on any other playoff team, yet they continue to torment the Twins.

Randy Dobnak delivered three scoreless innings, while the Twins were held scoreless by the the top two setup options for manager Steven Vogt, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis. For some reason, Vogt elected to lift Gaddis with two outs and a man on in the eighth inning, opting for the struggling Nick Sandlin against Buxton. Buxton launched a splitter in the middle of the zone into the flower beds in left field for his second homer, making it a 5-3 game.

Vogt made another questionable call in the ninth. With the first two batters aboard, Fry tried to bunt, and laid it down right in front of the plate, Vázquez picked it up and fired to third to record an out. Royce Lewis then relayed to first to get the double play, extinguishing the Cleveland rally.

The Twins made some noise in the ninth against Emmanuel Clase. Kepler dumped a Cleveland-style flare single to left, and Farmer drew a walk. Vázquez then lined a sharp single to left with two strikes, making it a bases-loaded, no-out situation. He finished the day 3-4 with two doubles. After a Castro strikeout, Larnach grounded a ball sharply up the middle that Platinum Glove winner Giménez expertly turned into a game-ending double play.

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What’s Next: Pablo López (10-8, 4.74 ERA) takes on Brady Singer (8-7, 3.03 ERA) as the Twins welcome the Kansas City Royals to town for a three game set featuring the second and third wild card teams in the American League. The sinker-slider heavy Singer was a first round pick and highly touted as a prospect. He appeared to break out in 2022, with a 3.23 ERA and decent peripherals, was awful in 2023 and has rebounded to form a three headed rotation monster with Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans.

López stumbled against the Cubs his last time out, but was clearly fighting his command all night. He'll look to continue his strong second half against the offensively-challenged Royals.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: