Grading the 9 Trades from the Twins’ 2025 Trade Deadline

Consensus seems to be the Twins got a little more for Bader than he was worth and a little less for Duran than what he was worth. Does it even out if you think of the trade as Bader and Duran for Tait, Abel, Mendez and Villoria?

14 hours ago, SteveLV said:

My thoughts and hopes after the trade deadline:

1) Pohlads sell to a good new owner willing to embrace the fan base and reinvigorate the franchise;

2) A new TV deal in some form or another that helps the finances;

3) Ryan gets extended in the off season.  Otherwise, trade him for an excellent package;

4) The only thing I can come up with on the Stewart trade is that there is something very bad in his medicals;

5) I actually like the Varland trade package and like that this franchise finally has some LH starting pitchers in the pipeline;

6) Correa was becoming an emotional albatross on top of his salary.  He may very well excel in Houston, but that was never going to happen here based on his past performance;

I posted this before the trade deadline and I stand by the original comment:  I would rather watch young players try and possibly fail than waiver-wire wannabes flounder and trying to catch lightning in a bottle. I think all fans are more forgiving of young players trying to make the jump to the majors and enjoy rooting for the rookies.  LET'S GO!

P.S.  The only REAL hope for the Twins is a new CBA that institutes a real salary cap and floor, but that is probably a pipe dream.....

I would agree with you on most of this but I strongly disagree with you and almost everyone else on the salary cap and floor. Exhibit one: Luis Severino. 
While the A’s might have seen this as a good move speculation also points to the fact that per the CBA and previous MLBPA grievances this signing was used as a play to avoid any problems with their move and simply keep the MLBPA off the back of the athletics and MLB. Anybody can read the CBA and the grievances but in a nutshell the Athletics were forced to buy a player past his prime for more money than he really should have got to simply show they are spending money and “playing ball”. Now times that by 30 teams. That will force teams to spend money on aging FA’s who don’t necessarily “deserve” these pay days simply to show “hey, we’re spending money.” Meanwhile they’ll have a league wide inflation where the floor and ceiling move by certain percentage points every year. Older aging players will get their payday. Owners picket more money. We all know there are angles to all of this and the strongest angles are gonna be played by owners and established players. It’s gonna be about what’s best for the business and not what’s best for baseball as a game. People need to go read this stuff. There’s a reason some of the most lucrative franchises are all in the NFL. It’s not because of what you think. There’s a reason why MLB players are the highest paid in sports. It’s because they get a bigger piece of the pie. Now do you want the money in owners hands or players hands. That’s the question.

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Consensus seems to be the Twins got a little more for Bader than he was worth and a little less for Duran than what he was worth. Does it even out if you think of the trade as Bader and Duran for Tait, Abel, Mendez and Villoria?

Probably not but maybe 5% closer to even value than before.  

On 8/7/2025 at 9:14 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's entirely valid to look at trades beyond the impact they have on the baseball diamond. Varland is from St Paul and he grew up a Twins fan. Trading him away when he has so many years of control left sucks.

Here we go again....

23 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You'd have to add a number 4 (though this year 5) starter (with 4 years of control) to Duran to get the deal. 

 

Since Sears was sent to AAA, I guess we could have thrown in Dobnak or some other AAA player?  Fleeced. 

"I would agree with you on most of this but I strongly disagree with you and almost everyone else on the salary cap and floor. Exhibit one: Luis Severino. 
While the A’s might have seen this as a good move speculation also points to the fact that per the CBA and previous MLBPA grievances this signing was used as a play to avoid any problems with their move and simply keep the MLBPA off the back of the athletics and MLB. Anybody can read the CBA and the grievances but in a nutshell the Athletics were forced to buy a player past his prime for more money than he really should have got to simply show they are spending money and “playing ball”. Now times that by 30 teams. That will force teams to spend money on aging FA’s who don’t necessarily “deserve” these pay days simply to show “hey, we’re spending money.” Meanwhile they’ll have a league wide inflation where the floor and ceiling move by certain percentage points every year. Older aging players will get their payday. Owners picket more money. We all know there are angles to all of this and the strongest angles are gonna be played by owners and established players. It’s gonna be about what’s best for the business and not what’s best for baseball as a game. People need to go read this stuff. There’s a reason some of the most lucrative franchises are all in the NFL. It’s not because of what you think. There’s a reason why MLB players are the highest paid in sports. It’s because they get a bigger piece of the pie. Now do you want the money in owners hands or players hands. That’s the question."

I have a different vision of a MLB Salary Cap.  I would guarantee the players 55% of ALL revenue.  That is more than they are currently receiving.  This is the main carrot.

I would impose a hard cap and a hard floor for every team modelled after the NFL CBA.

I would impose true, full revenue sharing.

I would increase MiLB salaries 100% across the board.  Their treatment is ridiculous.

I would limit the length of all contracts to 5 years max.  That allows players to sign deals and second deals while still in their prime.

I would make players FA after 4 years of MLB service time, reduced to 3 years for player who meet performance goals similar to the time-served calculation.

I would raise MLB minimum salaries to $2M per player.

I would forbid future or deferred compensation deals beyond 5 years.

I would require financial transparency from all owners for all revenue streams.

My goals are:

1)  Get more $ in the hands of younger players, including minor leaguers;

2) Create competitive equality in the league like the NFL enjoys;

3) Raise the value of smaller market franchises;

4) Let players achieve FA earlier in their careers.

Who would say "Yes".  The players, except the very few elite players.  The vast majority of players benefit hugely under this proposal.  Small market teams, but they have to share the wealth with the players.

Who says "No".  Big market team owners and the few fat-cat elite players and their agents.

If this is presented properly, this should be accepted by the MLPA and the owners by majority vote.

This is a skeleton of a deal that would benefit MLB and MiLB immensely.  It will never happen.  Manfred is weak and the elite players and their agents control the MLBPA.

9 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

THIS!  I've been harping on this point in multiple threads.  They keep talking about addressing our issues but all we did was add starting pitching depth at the expense of our relief pitching depth.  We've done little to nothing to address the hitting which is exactly what our main issue is.

Thanks. Do I get a "like?"

Other than Mendez who I really really like, the only trades that really matter in magnitude is Jax, Duran, and Varland.  Jax for Bradley I had waffled back and forth but I am solely in the camp of being a very good trade. I’m starting to think Jax did us a favor by asking to be traded. The Varland trade was probably a pretty big overpay.  Roden looks like he might be able to man one of the corner outfield spots. As of now Rojas is still a bit of a project. Duran was a fair trade.  Both Tait and Abel look pretty good in a handful of games.  We are watching better baseball and got some pretty good prospects.  There is no point to really grade these trades. Ultimately it’s whether they can help the big league team. Roden has strung together 2 solid game.  

On 8/7/2025 at 4:50 PM, DocBauer said:

I'm not sure if sending along $ in most of these deals would have made a difference other than the Paddack/Dobnak deal. (Correa's deal is its own mess). Stewart, Varland and France were on minimum or barely above deals. So their new teams are only hook for about a combined $1M. Jax is owed roughly $800,000. Coulombe is owed about $1M. Bader has about $2M still owed. So I don't know if  paying any part of those remaining contracts makes a difference? Maybe Bader?

Where I think it might have made a difference is picking up half of Duran's remaining $1.4M. Does half of that, or all of it, add a 3rd player to the deal?

I don't think a young catcher like Jiminez from Detroit was an awful return. He's a LONG way away from MLB, but he's got some bat potential, has a good arm, and reportedly is a natural behind the plate. So if you pick up some of Paddack's remaining salary and don't "force" Dobnak in to the deal, maybe they get a 1B, or solid OF, at A+...MAYBE AA...instead of a FCL catcher who's just been promoted to A- ball. I'm sure we will never know, but it does make me wonder.

 

A young player with a high ceiling was probably a better get than an AA player with a low one. Paddack has had a FIP of 4.7 something since the middle of June. That number is less damning than his ERA over 6. The FIP is sixth starter territory. The ERA is trade for a PTNL or cash territory. The grade for value received is likely better than the outcome, but when the results are in, Paddack will be long gone fishing

For the most part, I agree with the grades.  Of course, Matthew should be given the opportunity to re-grade about this time next year after he's been able to evaluate how Bradley and Abel are doing in the big leagues and how some of the other pieces are progressing through the minors.

What disappointed me about this deadline the most was that we were supposed to have leverage and I don't see that in ANY of the trades we made.  We got 2 good prospects back for Duran, but should have done better.  When you have one of the top 2 closers on the market (Mason Miller was the other) a team should extract a premium.  The Duran trade failed to attain that level.  As I've said, include Bader in the Duran deal and get the young CF prospect Crawford.  THAT would have at least approached a premium.

I agree with the assessment that we Twins fans overvalued Willi Castro.  Willie could play a number of places but LF was the only position he had even average fielding prowess.  Honestly, he was a below average fielder at 3B, 2B, SS & CF.  He was a decent, but not outstanding hitter.  We got about what he was worth. 

I hated trading Jax.  But we got a pitcher 6 years younger who could become a #3 SP or possibly a kights out RP.  Time will tell.

I think the Correa trade was a win just to off load the salary of a SS who spent a lot of time injured.  The grade for now is acceptable, but I agree it will rise or fall on what the new owner and new FO decides to do with the $20 million saved in salary.  Some of that could be used on an upgrade to a position player who hits better.  Some on replenishing the BP.  No grade can be considered "official" on the Correa trade until we see how that added payroll in invested...or NOT invested.

What I didn't like about the Stewart and Varland trades is that they were last minute and appeared to be rushed.  The FO completely botched the Stewart trade.  The Varland trade, with all the years of control remaining for Varland and the lack of anyone on the current roster to close games was unnecessary to me.  We may bring in a veteran closer at $3 million or so, maybe we don't.  But Varland COULD have been the closer in 2026 or at the least, the 8th inning set up guy.  Front office malpractice on the Varland and Stewart trades in my opinion.  

11 hours ago, Robert Gauthier said:

According to morning Strib, Jax was worried about his stats when he was taken out.  Funny, it sucked most of the year and NOW he cares?

well, this is the sort of story that comes out after a trade where someone throws a little dirt on a guy so the deal looks better.

It also might be true, and a reminder that just because a player might have a public bulldog image where they "only care about wins" and will do anything for the team...they also still might care a lot about their stats, especially behind the scenes.