Ervin Santana Is Legit

There will certainly be a market, they won't have trouble trading him. I'm just not as confident it will be an package that will be all that impressive.

 

If the Twins are trending upwards, if not exactly playoff bound this year, might just make sense to keep him for the rest of his contract.

I kind of agree with you when it comes to pitching. This team has been so starved for quality pitching that I wouldn't trade Ervin unless the return is really good. Ervin could continue to be a solid starter for a couple of more years and there isn't a current starter on the team or in the farm system that looks to be a front line starter. There is also something to him being a mentor to the other guys and protecting the bullpen.

Understanding that this won't continue for Santana, but perhaps thinking he is a little bit better than last year, I'm curious what people think they'd receive for Santana.

 

I understand the desire to trade him if you don't think this is a playoff team (I would agree), but I think the return will be a little bit disappointing.

If I'm the GM, I expect to retain Santana. Why? Mainly because I don't believe someone is going to offer me a future frontline starter of greater promise than any I have in the system today (Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves) and another prospect of substance thrown in (think Blankenblahblah). But I'm sure gonna try, and I'll be blind to where we are in the standings, contrarian as that is, if the overpay is stupendous. I'll take my chances on Berrios as his replacement.

I just don't expect anyone these days to offer up a pitching prospect much better than a Berrios type.

We have better than a Berrios type right now and for two plus years in Ervin Santana, for a reasonable price. And that's assuming Berrios lives up to his ceiling as a #2-3 starter. Yes, I know he stands a better chance of falling apart than a Berrios type. I'll take my chances that I can construct a roster of pitchers that will give me similar production to Berrios, maybe slightly less, over the next year or so. I don't want to trade my one frontline guy for that type. I want a frontline prospect for my one frontline guy. At the most optimistic, Berrios is viewed as having a small chance of giving you some #2 production. Not a good enough return for me. Close though, with a Rortvedt type thrown in.

As you say, none of what we have in the system is clearly projecting to be Santana's equal.

I like Erv. He's been a good signing for the Twins--and I even drafted him in fantasy this year, so know that I'm not, "Ahhh, he sucks." But we should look at more than his ERA when evaluating him.

These are his seasonal lines since coming to Minnesota:

2015: 4.00 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 6.83 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9

2016: 3.38 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 7.40 K/9, 2.63 BB/9,  0.94 HR/9

2017: 0.41 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 6.14 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9

Total: 3.38 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 7.11 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9

His 3.87 FIP ranks 33rd among 80 qualifying starters in that time; his 4.25 xFIP ranks 65th.

I'd say that he's a fine mid-rotation starter who doesn't strike out a lot of batters (7.11 K/9 ranks 64th of 80) but has decent control (2.72 BB/9 ranks 45th). Indeed, he's done pretty well at keeping the ball in the park--0.93 HR/9 ranks 18th and 9.5% HR/FB ranks 6th--and his .272 BABIP ranks 11th. Possibly that's a testament to his sinker, but I'd also wonder what may happen, as he hits his mid/late 30's, if he loses a little zip and batters start to barrel up on him better. Those HR rates are probably going to regress, anyway, and his BABIP may rise while his K/9 may dip, too. Should the Twins want to keep riding him through the next few years at age 34-36, or sell high for a prospect or two?

If he's hot in July, I'll be hoping to see the Twins cash in.

What is "normal" BABIP with the outfield we have?  Serious question, it has to be much lower than it would have been the last coupla years?

The lowest BABIP last year by a qualified starter was .234 by Marco Estrada and the lowest HR/FB% was 8.4 by Johnny Cueto. So even if he matches those numbers that's more three times as many hits and almost twice as many home runs. League average BABIP was .298 last year. And how much longer do you expect that outfield to stay intact with Buxton and Rosario having sub .400 OPS's?

What is "normal" BABIP with the outfield we have?  Serious question, it has to be much lower than it would have been the last coupla years?

League average hovers around .300.  It's a decent way to predict the "luck" of pitchers, but it's not as good at predicting "luck" of hitters because some hitters can hit directionally very well.  

That being said, new data is showing that "good" pitchers are "good" at inducing weak infield grounders which would boost BABIP even on a defensively challenged team.  If you watched the World Series last year you know this story well (and know how dull it is to watch as a baseball fan).

But no, he's not likely to have 1-hitters the rest of the way through 2017 unless he is shooting for the MVP.  Buxton, et al,, have done a lot for Santana this year.

I would trade him for a Berrios type too. Don't think that will be on the table.

 

Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia are the back end top 100 guys that you might be able to get. Not sure if I would pull the trigger if that is the headliner.

I can't imagine that Mejia + parts would be the best package they're offered for Santana given he pitches reasonably well up to the deadline. 

I can't say I'd be upset to trade him around July if we could get a solid return for him. But if this team is somehow in contention, .500 record, spot at a wi,d card, etc, I think I'd be inclined to keep him.

They made this mistake a couple of years ago.  The Twins still have a thin pitching staff with not much in the pipeline.  

Unless they want to buy, they have to sell. They can't just hold pat. Do you think they will be buyers if they are around .500?