Can Edouard Julien Overcome His Dire Platoon Weakness?

23 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

Have you seen how many of his strikeouts are on called third strikes?  He is not helping the team by striking out on a called third strike. Good hitters are seldom called out on third strike. Good hitters will foul off a close pitch and then wait for another pitch. Do you really think that players walk 50% of time on 3-2 pitch? That is just not true!

Have you seen how many of his walks are on called 4th balls? (Hint, it's all of them). He is helping the team every time he gets on base with a walk.

Hitters walk 50% of the time on a close pitch on a 3-2 count. If the ball is "close" it's a 50% chance to be called a ball or a strike. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time isn't "close". I agree, you try to foul off nasty strikes but you don't expand the zone with a 3-2 count.

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This isn't fact. This is a pretty dubious opinion.

Even if we use the publicly available umpire ball/strike stats, they call balls and strikes correctly something like 94% of the time. "Close" pitches are either a ball or a strike. It's not a coin flip and hitters shouldn't pretend it is. Nor will they get a 50/50 split on calls.

Look at the cloud plots of balls and strikes. There are borderline pitches that are 50/50. That's a "close" pitch. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time or a ball 95% of the time is NOT a close pitch. Even a pitch that is a strike 60% of the time has an OBP of .400 on a full count.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It's pretty simple math. When you take a strike or swing and miss it doesn't get counted in the denominator on a 3-1 count but it does for a 3-2 count.

Possible outcomes 3-1 = ball in play, walk, advance to a 3-2 count (which doesn't get counted in the batting average)

Possible outcomes 3-2 = ball in play, walk, strikeout

I think we disagree that in a 3-1 count hitters are going to see better pitches to hit and attack. If the pitches are exactly the same independent of the count I agree with the simple math.

22 hours ago, RpR said:

How many outs is enough?

Winning games comes before training school.

How many times do you get real life 9th inning risp that means win or lose even tho it isnt last game of a playoff series do or die.  That at bat could mean everything to a rookie’s development. 

25 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'm 99.9999% sure that Baldelli wasn't sending a message to Julien for a previous at bat. Simply, the message was we are going to give ourselves a better chance to win. And, if I recall, Vazquez was the only guy left on the bench.

I'm not at all sure or even really care why Baldelli pinch hit for Julien. You may have resources and knowledge that allow you to know why decisions are made in some game situations, which may explain your certainty. I was merely attempting to soften the vitriol that casts Baldelli as incompetent by suggesting there are reasons for his actions and we don't know his thoughts.

Baseball is entertainment for me these days.  I'm no longer active in the game (too old)  and find simple joy in the pitcher-catcher-batter chess match. I don't see second guessing and anger as a healthy part of entertainment. I do understand that people question actions and get very frustrated.

40 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think we disagree that in a 3-1 count hitters are going to see better pitches to hit and attack. If the pitches are exactly the same independent of the count I agree with the simple math.

I think it's selection bias - it only shows up in the stats if the batter swings, which only happens on pitches batters want to hit. Batters walk a LOT on 3-1 counts but clearly they didn't get a good pitch to hit if it was a ball.

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Julien is an inexperienced baseball player, having played professionally only in 2021 and 2022 before this season. There is plenty of reason to believe that he can improve as a baseball player. 

The splits are rough for Julien this year and I agree with others that he begins to receive more opportunities next year versus lefties. It should be noted that platoon baseball is often a good decision.

While we will likely never know exactly why Baldelli used Vazquez yesterday instead of just letting Julien hit, it is at least plausible that it may have been a consequence of his previous at bat. Julien took a pitch fully in the strike zone on a run and hit leaving Farmer as an easy out at second base. It is possible Baldelli wanted to send a message when he pulled Julien; we just don't know.

Wouldn’t a better message be “Hey, I know you missed the hit and run sign, now you have a bigger opportunity to walk this off, go get it done rookie.” 

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'm 99.9999% sure that Baldelli wasn't sending a message to Julien for a previous at bat. Simply, the message was we are going to give ourselves a better chance to win. And, if I recall, Vazquez was the only guy left on the bench.

But the argument is whether Vasquez gives us the better chance to win.  So much of the modern analytics movement is laser focused on when is the right time to pull a player from the game; very little focus is given to who is going to replace the pulled player, and whether said replacement is a better option for the specific situation.  Saying "let's yank Julien and replace him with anyone else" is a questionable strategy at best, in my opinion.  Not to mention the damage that can be done to a young player who continually gets pulled in important moments.  If you keep telling Julien he can't hit lefties, and never give him the chance to prove you wrong, eventually he'll start to believe you!  

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

Julien likely will get a lot of plate appearances in 2024 from March through July or August and see where the numbers are. Same with Kirilloff and Wallner. Doesn't mean every game vs a lefty, but more often. 

I'm all about development and prospects and stuff, but it's mid-September and this is a playoff team, about to win the division. I have no problem with moves made to give the Twins a better chance at a win.

Based on what? These mid September games are meaningless, the division is wrapped, the Twins aren't catching Houston for the 2 seed, but Julien still can't get any sort of regular run against LHP. Why are we supposed to believe that MN will be feeding him ABs against LHP during the portion of next season where every W matters? 

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think it's selection bias - it only shows up in the stats if the batter swings, which only happens on pitches batters want to hit. Batters walk a LOT on 3-1 counts but clearly they didn't get a good pitch to hit if it was a ball.

We disagree. I think they see better pitches to hit 3-1 than 3-2.

I did appreciate that last night he attacked that ball on a 2-0 count. Before last night only three Twins had fewer balls in play on a 2-0 count (Garlick, Gordon and Stevenson). That is what I want to see more. Good hitters should be ready to do damage when ahead in the count. He is a good hitter and I think he is missing some opportunities. That in a nutshell was my original point.

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

For one thing, it wasn't a hit and run. It was a full count. 

 

Farmer was not stealing a base. He was going on the belief that Julien would make contact on a strike or take a ball. Thus it is a run and hit. I like it when Baldelli loosens up and put players in motion but many do not. Julien freezing up makes the call to send Farmer look questionable but the fault lies with Julien here. He has to swing to protect the plodding Farmer.

FWIW, I was not happy about Julien taking that pitch but even athletes at the highest level f-up. I wasn not in favor of Baldelli sending Vazquez to pinch hit either, mostly because I believed that the Ray's lefty was less effective than their righty who came in and put Christian away on three pitches. It just doesn't make any sense to spend any time second guessing. I might not like a decision at the time it was made but I move on. More than any other sport baseball is all about failure, dealing with it and adapting and having the confidence to forget misplays to an extent yet still learn and adjust.

Here’s what we know…

Julien WILL BE better against lefties than Vasquez is against righties. We KNOW what Vasquez is. Anyone with eyes can tell that Julien has tons more talent and potential than Vasquez with the bat, even as he’s still learning.

If we’re saying the Vasquez matchup is what Rocco preferred, my response would be stop overthinking it, Rocco…and give the talent a chance.

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

  That at bat could mean everything to a rookie’s development. 

If he is that desperate, he should not have left AAA.

Also, Julien has every indication of being a three-true-outcome guy. He goes deep into counts almost all the time looking for a very specific pitch and/or area….he ain’t tying to hit singles. Those guys will always K a lot…and walk a lot. If you don’t like that style, I don’t think you’re going to like Julien.

He’s pretty much the polar opposite of Lewis who’s pretty much hacking at the first pitch he thinks he can hit anywhere. That’s why Julien figures to work well leading off, and Lewis works well in a 3-5 spot. Both styles can work if executed consistently well enough. So far, so good, IMO.

U

8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I think we disagree that in a 3-1 count hitters are going to see better pitches to hit and attack. If the pitches are exactly the same independent of the count I agree with the simple math.

Absolutely…and batters chase less on 3-1…way less, and as a result, swing and miss less. The math simply compounds the discrepancy further, by not ‘counting’ the whiffs when they do occur.

40 minutes ago, RpR said:

If he is that desperate, he should not have left AAA.

Its not desperation, its that psychological brain development that tells people, I’ve succeeded before at this in high stress, this next time its going to be easier with an even better outcome. Rocco simply set that experience building to the side and told the rookie to sit down, let my crappy hitting last guy on the bench take 3 swings at it. I think thats a bad message to send and doesn’t help the team long term. Player development helps the team every time its tried.